March 31, 2020
Morning Express: March 31, 2020
U.S benchmarks surged higher yesterday and into today’s quarter-end. A largely accepted catalyst for the strength that began last week was quarterly rebalancing.
Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward. Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global. Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.
March 23, 2020
Morning Express: March 23, 2020
U.S benchmarks finished Friday on a very ugly note, settling below the December 2018 low, and kicked off this week by gapping lower. The S&P traded to the lowest level since the week after President Trump’s 2016 election.
March 19, 2020
Morning Express: March 19, 2020
Last week, we began saying ‘this is the panic’. Through Friday, the S&P responded to the first test of the December 2018 low by gaining as much as much as 13%. Yesterday, the S&P took out that low, but did not close below it. It has become evident since Monday that the panic is still playing out and we voiced here yesterday that we expected the market to break below 2300.
March 17, 2020
Morning Express: March 17, 2020
U.S benchmarks tested limit-up overnight before paring gains. They are still holding positive along with those from Asia. Much of Europe is lower after German Sentiment data eroded to the worst since December 2011.
March 16, 2020
Morning Express: March 16, 2020 -Part 2
The Federal Reserve launched its bazooka just before the open last night. Ahead of their two-day meeting this week, the committee cut interest rates to zero and announced the start of a $700 billion bond buying program or QE4 (to which we detailed in last night’s Morning Express).
March 15, 2020
Morning Express: March 16, 2020
Fundamentals: The settlement detailed above can do some justice in describing last week’s chaos. Think about that for a minute; the S&P gained 227 points or 9.2% on Friday, but still lost 268 points or 9% on the week. On Thursday, we led off with; “This is the panic”. By midweek, Covid-19 was not just a tale from overseas or a joke among friends on social media; events were being cancelled, lives were becoming altered and at that point the economy was expected to grind to a screeching halt. Markets began preparing for the worst; widespread shutdown of an unknown length and an outbreak topping 100,000 in the U.S over the next month. Saudi Arabia added uncertainty last weekend by beginning a Crude Oil price war. The ensuing plummet of energy prices one week ago was its own Black Swan event. However, what was uncertainty last weekend has helped to quickly value the severity of this situation from a deflation standpoint and simply from an awareness level. This is a virus throwing punches and one that can only be met with punches; Saudi Arabia’s prerogative was extreme but necessary in their eyes to save their interests and stimulate demand. As of Sunday, 3400 cases have been reported in the U.S, school districts have been shutdown and travel is being limited [from abroad, but state to state could be next]. Here in Illinois, the Governor announced all bars and restaurants must close to dine-in customers through March 30th. In other words, all economic activity is grinding to that aforementioned screeching halt.
March 11, 2020
Morning Express: March 11, 2020
Yesterday’s late surge was constructive, but quickly faded. Although the S&P settled at 2865.75 and above major three-star resistance at 2853.25-2864, this was not convincingly. The NQ settled at 8331.50, above 8310.50, but merely failing at last week’s late low.
March 9, 2020
Morning Express: March 9, 2020
The S&P is locked limit lower this morning after a historical move by Saudi Arabia. Russia refused to come to the table at last week’s OPEC+ meeting and Saudi Arabia retaliated by creating an all-out price war.
March 6, 2020
Morning Express: March 6, 2020
Managers, investors and traders alike are not running for cover in fear of Nonfarm Payroll (or are they?). This is the most vicious reach for safety arguably ever with uncertainty looming for not only Q1 earnings 30 days out but simply over the impending weekend as Covid-19 spreads in the U.S and the death toll surges in Italy.
March 5, 2020
Midday Market Minute: Mar 5, 2020
March 5, 2020
Morning Express: March 5, 2020
U.S benchmarks are again on their back foot. After surging right up to the closing bell, the rally then quickly dissipated overnight. One major catalyst for yesterday’s strength was the economic data. ISM Non-Manufacturing was surprisingly strong; at 57.3 it was the best in a year.
March 4, 2020
Morning Express: March 4, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced an emergency 50-basis point rate cut yesterday morning and after a short-lived spike, equity markets sold off sharply. We believe U.S benchmarks would have finished at session highs if it were not for the Fed’s action, one that exuded fear. The odds of a 50-basis point cut stood at 100% and risk-sentiment was in recovery-mode from last week’s bloodbath as long as a cut was coming.
March 3, 2020
Morning Express: March 3, 2020
The recovery is underway, or is it? U.S benchmarks muscled another late surge yesterday. The tape has broadly held ground overnight and even poked its head higher. Furthermore, the S&P is out above a key technical level at 3050-3060 which in our mind paves a path of least resistance higher.
February 27, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 27, 2020
The cleansing continues; the S&P hit an exact 10% correction late last night. Although the velocity of this move may seem concerning in the context of an ordinary market; the move itself is anything but concerning to this point and the market is certainly not ordinary.
February 24, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 24, 2020
Risk-assets across the board are sharply lower this morning. U.S benchmarks are all down 2.5% or more as some panic begins to set in. Ultimately, we find this a very healthy correction and one we have been able to capitalize on through the Russell 2000. Fears are mounting as to the impact of the Coronavirus, now known as Covid-19.
February 18, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 18, 2020
The S&P and NQ each marched to new record highs during the President’s Day holiday hours. This marked the tenth session in a row for the NQ. Just after the noon CT close, Apple warned it expects to miss sales guidance for the March quarter.
February 14, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 14, 2020
U.S benchmarks set a fresh wave of record highs overnight. This marks the S&P’s fourth straight session and more impressively the NQ’s ninth. The combination of central bank liquidity, ultra-low/negative rates, lack of negative news and a warrior of a U.S consumer has fueled this market in recent days and weeks.
February 13, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 13, 2020
U.S benchmarks finished at new records yesterday on what was a steady grind higher the entire session. Apple led the way gaining 2.38% but the rally was broad with Facebook +1.72% and names like Comcast +2.75%. Healthcare plan providers like UnitedHealth and Anthem surged by more than four and five percent, however, drug manufacturers, devices and biotech were all lower.
February 12, 2020
Midday Market Minute: Feb 12, 2020
February 7, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 7, 2020
It’s Jobs Friday and Nonfarm Payroll is due at 7:30 am CT. U.S benchmarks are incurring a healthy downtick ahead of the report. Some selling pressures are due to the mounting Coronavirus numbers, but others come as Germany’s economic data echoes a recession. The Coronavirus death toll has surpassed 600 and the number of confirmed cases has topped 31,000.
February 3, 2020
Morning Express: Feb. 3, 2020
U.S benchmarks began Sunday night on favorable footing and are working to repair last week’s damage. Benchmarks from China are a different story. After being closed all last week for the Lunar New Year holiday, the Shanghai Composite finished down 7.72% Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng which opened last Wednesday and lost 5.86% on the week traded to a new low but finished the session +0.17%.
January 31, 2020
Morning Express: Jan. 31, 2020
What a wild ride. Yesterday’s recovery was fueled by a number of factors and one to certainly not be overlooked is technical; a failure to make a new low got the ball rolling on short covering and algos at the very least.
January 28, 2020
FX Rundown: January 28, 2020
January 27, 2020
Morning Express: Jan. 27, 2020
U.S benchmarks gapped lower last night and selling pressure picked up again when Europe opened. In China, the confirmed Coronavirus death toll has topped 80 and the number of confirmed cases is nearing 3000. The two major concerns driving sentiment are the thump to growth figures and the incubation period of the virus. First, we imagine the growth scare is exacerbated in the near-term and smoothed out over the long-term.
January 22, 2020
Morning Express: Jan. 22, 2020
The market likes President Trump and U.S benchmarks surged late last night as it became clearer the Republican-controlled Senate would vote along party lines. The GOP rejected attempts by Democrats to subpoena documents and witnesses related to Ukraine.
January 21, 2020
FX Rundown: January 21, 2020
January 14, 2020
FX Rundown: January 14, 2020
January 13, 2020
FX Rundown: January 13, 2020
January 13, 2020
Morning Express: Jan. 13, 2020
U.S benchmarks traded to record highs early Friday morning before an underwhelming Nonfarm Payroll report softened the tape. There were 145,000 jobs created in December versus 164,000 expected and Average Hourly Earnings increased by only 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.
