The Rebound Erodes with Corporate Profits
U.S. equity benchmarks are slipping from yesterday’s exuberant closing levels. There was a sense of negativity ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s afternoon comments, that he would squash the rally.
Here is the Window; Risk is to the Upside
Stocks were overdue for a bounce. That began in the final minutes Thursday and played out through much of Friday.
When Does The Carnage End?
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3987.50, down 132.00 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,193.75, down 502.00 Fundamentals: The carnage across risk assets resumed Monday. The S&P covered the gap associated with its April 1, 2021 breakout, settling with “3” handle, and the NQ traded to an 18-month low. The … Continue reading When Does The Carnage End?
Your Roadmap to Jobs Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls for April are due at 7:30 am CT and 391k jobs are expected to have been added, a drop from 431k in March.
Fed Day and Inflation
It is Fed Day and whether the central bank wants to admit it or not, they are watching the stock market.
Where Did Demand Go?
China PMIs for April on Friday night plummeted due to country’s zero-virus policy and lockdowns, state read Manufacturing contracted at 47.4 versus 48 expected and private Caixin contracted at 46.0 versus 47.0. Services came in at 41.9.
Can Stability Overseas Offset Earnings Shock?
Earnings from Apple and Amazon after the bell brought an immediate shock to the broad market. Amazon is down about 10% after the fourth largest company in the U.S. by market cap lost $7.56 per share when +$8.37 was expected.
Panic, Although Uncomfortable, Is Welcomed
Yesterday’s bloodbath, although uncomfortable, was welcomed. The S&P fell 7% from Thursday’s high to Monday’s low and there were some signs of panic before rebounding into Monday’s close.
Demand Destruction and Excessive Negative Sentiment
China leads global risk-assets lower. Shanghai enters fourth week of lockdowns and fear mounts Beijing will follow after mass testing begins. Panic buying at stores to prepare. Shanghai Composite -5.13% and Hang Seng -3.73%.
Make No Mistake, This Is Tesla
Let us not beat around the bush; this morning’s strength is Tesla and all about Tesla. If the company had missed earnings, the market would be singing a very different tune.
Everyone Is On Spring Break
Everyone is on Spring Break. Of course, I mean this figuratively, but the reality is people are out, and people are spending money.
Producer Prices are Leading Indicator to Consumer Prices
U.S. Producer Price Index for March surges past expectations with a headline read of 11.2% YoY and +1.4% MoM.
Navigating the Risk-Landscape
Russian war crimes in areas around Kyiv, create calls for new sanctions. French President Macron spearheads push for immediate embargo on Oil and Coal from Russia, but not Natural Gas.
Quarter Kicks Off with Jobs
March Nonfarm Payrolls to kick off the new quarter, due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations for 490,000 jobs but wage growth, an inflation indicator, a major focus.
Eagle-Eyed Looking Ahead
It is the last day of a tumultuous first quarter. As we reflect to learn from our positives and negatives, we cannot help but to look forward and realize the fundamental uncertainties that lie ahead.