Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward. Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global. Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.
January 22, 2020
The market likes President Trump and U.S benchmarks surged late last night as it became clearer the Republican-controlled Senate would vote along party lines. The GOP rejected attempts by Democrats to subpoena documents and witnesses related to Ukraine.
January 21, 2020
January 14, 2020
January 13, 2020
January 13, 2020
U.S benchmarks traded to record highs early Friday morning before an underwhelming Nonfarm Payroll report softened the tape. There were 145,000 jobs created in December versus 164,000 expected and Average Hourly Earnings increased by only 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.
January 12, 2020
January 10, 2020
U.S benchmarks closed at record highs yesterday and extended gains overnight ahead of Nonfarm Payroll at 7:30 am CT. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner.
January 8, 2020
Markets across the board digested this as the closest thing to an olive branch we could see. Safe haven assets along with Crude Oil began paring gains and U.S equity benchmarks roared back, turning positive early this morning. It was also confirmed by U.S officials around 6:30 am CT that there were no casualties. President Trump is expected to address the situation this morning.
January 7, 2020
January 7, 2020
U.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close. Price action remains firm at the onset of U.S hours despite threats of retaliation by Iran for the killing of its general.
January 6, 2020
January 2, 2020
It’s a new year, but not a new chapter in this bull market. U.S benchmarks are pointing higher by at least 0.50% on the first trading day of 2020. European benchmarks are up about 1%, the Shanghai Composite gained 1.15% and the Hang Seng 1.25%.
December 18, 2019
Equity benchmarks around the world are steady. Economic data out of the U.S yesterday was all better than expected; Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and JOLTs Job Openings. German Ifo Business Climate followed suit this morning.
December 10, 2019
Major U.S benchmarks have pulled back as much as 1% amid a healthy consolidation in front of a gauntlet of events. U.S and China trade relations are the underlying catalyst but there are a number of themes from Wednesday’s Fed meeting to economic data and drama in Washington that have kept Friday’s post Nonfarm rally in check.
December 3, 2019
U.S benchmarks slipped to start the week, and this was healthy. Price action is pointing lower again this morning ahead of the bell after President Trump signaled his willingness to delay a U.S-China trade deal until after the 2020 election. With those December 15th tariffs inching ever closer, risk-sentiment is beginning to get antsy at such elevated levels.
November 25, 2019
Risk-sentiment is getting a boost to start the week after China promised to tighten intellectual property laws. IP has been a major hurdle in U.S-China trade talks and what we’ve referred to as the substance. China has been extremely reluctant to include it in negotiations, even saying at one point in October it would never be included. The nation now seems to have a change of heart announcing a plan to increase penalties on violations of intellectual property rights and is supposedly considering making it easier to hand down criminal punishments.
November 21, 2019
U.S benchmarks are back to the baseline and holding steady. The U.S-China trade narrative is dominating headlines, largely drowning out yesterday’s Fed minutes. Yesterday, it was rumored that an interim “Phase One” trade deal would not be signed this year and equity markets quickly slipped before competing headlines exuded confidence that negotiations to achieve a deal this year are ongoing.
November 18, 2019
Major U.S benchmarks achieved a fresh wave of record highs this morning before paring gains as trade anecdotes drive the two-sided tape. It was revealed that U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a “constructive” phone conversation Saturday as the two sides move closer to an interim “Phase One” trade deal.
November 12, 2019
November 12, 2019
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3092, up 4.50
Fundamentals: Both the S&P and NQ set fresh record highs ahead of President Trump’s address at the Economic Club of New York. However, his comments lacked the positive jawboning on U.S-China trade that was expected and price action dissipated into the afternoon. The President did make sure to criticize the Fed’s too hawkish of policy. Ironically, Philadelphia Fed President Harker was speaking at the same time saying that he did not support the most recent cut and how the Fed should stand pat measuring the effects of the policy adjustments. Harker’s comments are important as he is a 2020 voter. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, also a 2020 voter, speaks at 5:00 pm CT tonight. Still, equity markets held ground through the session and finished on a strong note. Wednesday’s economic calendar will prove pivotal with U.S CPI due at 7:30 am CT followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony at 10:00 am CT.
Technicals: Price action stretched to a fresh record high in each the S&P and NQ, but key resistance in the S&P at 3100 and major three-star resistance in the NQ at 8300 kept the rally in check. Upon a wave of selling, our pivot levels for Tuesday’s session ultimately held extremely well for each and this allowed the bulls to step in for a firm close. Heading into Wednesday, the pivot levels are a bit higher and for the NQ it is our major three-star level at 8250-8261.50 given that the NQ settled above here at 8275. It would be very constructive for the bulls if price action holds firmly at or above these levels through the overnight and into tomorrow morning’s opening bell. In a larger scale, the line in the sand to the downside remains major three-star support at 3063.25-3069.25 in the S&P and 8150-8179.25 in the NQ; a break below here would encourage a strong wave of selling.
November 12, 2019
U.S. benchmarks snapped back after the open yesterday to pare Sunday night losses. The tape remains firm ahead of the bell today with a speech from President Trump at the Economic Club of New York in focus. The speech is scheduled to begin at 11:00 am CT but usual formalities may delay it just a bit. Most importantly, the market is expecting positive comments from the President on U.S-China trade.
November 11, 2019
U.S. benchmarks are set to open lower to start the week on this Veteran’s Day holiday. On Friday, President Trump addressed what we were already suspecting saying he does not want to rollback current tariffs in order to achieve the interim “Phase One” trade deal with China. While this threw a bit of cold water over sentiment, it was largely expected, and equities broadly took it in stride; the S&P and NQ each closed at record levels.
November 7, 2019
The word of the day is de-escalation. We are seeing major U.S benchmarks trek towards fresh records after China’s Foreign Ministry announced both sides plan to cancel existing tariffs in phases proportionally and at the same time sign an interim “Phase One” trade deal. The U.S has yet to confirm such steps and this leads us to believe there are two ways to look at it.
October 29, 2019
It was a strong start to the week with all four major U.S benchmarks gaining at least 0.5%. The ES and NQ each set fresh record highs and the board is stable ahead of the bell. Earnings remain in the spotlight, Alphabet missed EPS expectations after the close yesterday but did beat on revenue. The company cited rising costs as it expands its cloud business, but the report was overall not that bad.
October 28, 2019
Fed week is underway with the S&P and NQ looking to open Monday’s session at record highs. Strong earnings, upbeat jawboning on U.S-China trade and a 94% probability the committee cuts rates Wednesday have all added a bullish tailwind to the tape. AT&T reported this morning and beat adjusted EPS estimates but fell short on revenue. The stock is up nearly 2% premarket on strong subscriber growth.
October 24, 2019
October 22, 2019
U.S benchmarks started the week off on strong footing and the S&P extended to one-month highs overnight. A tailwind of positive sentiment comes from Washington and China lauding substantial progress in talks while pointing to the likeliness of an interim deal being signed by President Trump and President Xi at the G-20 Summit next month.
October 17, 2019
October 15, 2019
October 14, 2019
Fundamentals: Risk assets found broad support to finish last week as President Trump paraded an interim trade deal. Mounting positivity surrounding Brexit and soft U.S inflation data brought additional tailwinds to help the Euro settle Friday at the highest level since September 19th. The tables quickly turned coming out of the weekend though, cold water was poured over progress on each U.S-China and Brexit. Still, the Euro is clinging to gains in a low volatility atmosphere ahead of a crucial German ZEW Sentiment read tomorrow morning. The economic data has not gotten any better, Chinese Trade Balance last night showed Exports and Imports both contracted more than expected and tomorrow we hear the IMF’s revised growth estimates. We continue to believe rallies in the Euro are sell opportunities and if ZEW misses at 4:00 am CT tomorrow, look for follow through from today’s session to the downside.
