October 25, 2021
Earnings, Crude Spreads, and China Lockdowns
China implements lockdowns, Covid cases found in 11 provinces. Cases rising across the U.K., Germany, and Russia, among others.
Bill Baruch is founder and President of Blue Line Futures, Blue Line Capital, and Blue Creek Capital. Bill has extensive experience in the financial industry as an advisor, trader and manager. He started his career as an investment banking analyst, but quickly left for the fast paced world of commodity trading in 2007. He got his start as a Market Strategist at Lind Waldock’s Chicago Board of Trade office. Lind Waldock was purchased by MF Global and he began running his own trade desk there in 2009. In 2011, he took a role as the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER. Blue Line Futures is a futures and commodities brokerage, Blue Line Capital is a registered investment advisor, Blue Creek Capital is a commodity trading advisor.
October 20, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 20, 2021
October 20, 2021
Digesting Gains
U.S. benchmarks have paused to digest recent gains. Yesterday, we detailed a bullish scenario paving the way to 4620 in the S&P.
October 19, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 19, 2021
October 15, 2021
A Secular Bull Market in Commodities
This is a secular bull market in commodities. Copper +10% on the WEEK and highest since May.
October 14, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 14, 2021
October 13, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 13, 2021
October 12, 2021
Stagflation Fears Rippling Through
Fears of stagflation and strong technical resistance kept a lid on early strength and paved the way for heavy waves of selling.
October 7, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 7, 2021
October 5, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 5, 2021
October 4, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 4, 2021
October 4, 2021
Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China
OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year.
October 1, 2021
A Fresh Start for Markets
It is a new quarter, a new month, and a fresh start for this market. Price action was slammed into settlement yesterday and bled lower overnight. A circus of events over the last three weeks culminated into the lowest close in the S&P since July 19th.
September 27, 2021
A Melting Pot of Narratives, Last Week of Q3
Tailwinds from a strong rebound last week carried to start the session, but U.S. benchmarks have surrendered those gains. In fact, the NQ has given up 1% from its overnight high. It is the last week of the 3rd quarter and there is a melting pot of narratives to focus on.
September 21, 2021
Did Monday Set the Stage For A Monster Rebound?
Yesterday’s bloodbath ended on a positive note. Not only did the S&P pare losses by 1%, but there was also more volume in the E-mini S&P in final 30 minutes than in the opening 30 minutes.
September 15, 2021
China, Inflation, and a Potential Crude Breakout
Deluge of economic indicators from China for August last night all underwhelmed and were impacted by Covid. China Industrial Production for August YoY at 5.3% versus 5.8% expected was the slowest since last July.
September 8, 2021
Jobs and Central Bankers
Traders eye tomorrow’s ECB meeting and expectations are mounting for the central bank to reduce its quantitative easing program.
September 3, 2021
Trading Jobs Friday
Nonfarm Payroll is due at 7:30 am CT. The report will be watched extremely close, for it could signal the Federal Reserve’s next move come September 22nd.
September 2, 2021
Record Highs and Claims Ahead of Nonfarm
U.S. benchmarks are again pointing higher after strength overnight. However, this week, price action has struggled to hold highs through the entirety of the U.S. session as it digests a vicious rally over the last two weeks.
August 30, 2021
Top Three Things to Watch this Week
August 26, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 26, 2021
August 26, 2021
Understanding Risk-Assets Ahead of Powell
On Wednesday, we discussed the House paving the way for President Biden’s $4 trillion budget and how the lingering debt ceiling impacts Treasury issuance. The Jackson Hole Symposium will be fully virtual tomorrow. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 9:00 am CT is the main event.
August 25, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 25, 2021
August 24, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 24, 2021
August 23, 2021
China Cases, PMIs, and Jackson Hole Jitters
Flash PMIs from the U.S. for August are due at 8:45 am CT. Manufacturing is expected at 62.5, a touch slower than recent months, but still expanding at a historical pace.
August 19, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 19, 2021
August 19, 2021
Making Sense of the Healthy Pullback We Want
The buyers exhaustion we spoke of was real and after sharp rebounds on Monday and Tuesday, there was simply no ammo left. Some may look to yesterday’s Fed Minutes as the catalyst, and it certainly played a role.
August 18, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 18, 2021
August 16, 2021
Midday Market Minute: August 16, 2021
August 16, 2021
A Pivotal Week Ahead
There is a lot to unpack and look forward to at the onset of this new week. The S&P and Dow grinded higher amid low volume last week, and Friday marked the fourth straight record close for each.
