A Flattening, the Aftermath of a Hawkish Fed
Broadly speaking, markets are still digesting last week’s activity; the Federal Reserve’s slight hawkish turn at their policy meeting and the impact of quadruple witching. U.S. benchmarks are rebounding from Friday’s late selling and divergence where Growth vastly outperformed Value.
Midday Market Minute: June 17, 2021
The Fed in Focus
It is Fed Day, the committee concludes their two-day policy meeting at 1:00 pm CT. They are expected to keep rates unchanged and maintain the pace of their monthly asset purchases.
Midday Market Minute: June 15, 2021
Midday Market Minute: June 14, 2021
Monday is mixed as the FOMC Meeting comes into focus. This is what you need to know.
Fed Repo Operations Driving Markets
Midday Market Minute: June 10, 2021
Core CPI handily topped expectations, hot by some consideration, but Treasury yields finished lower. Let’s take a look.
Midday Market Minute: June 9, 2021
Bill Baruch covers today’s market movement and some of the tradable levels. Also, what does tomorrow’s CPI number mean?
Midday Market Minute: June 8, 2021
Breaking down today’s action across markets as Thursday’s inflation data nears.
Is a Deflationary Environment Building?
Yes, job growth for May was only 559,000 and expectations were only 650,000, so why did we just point to 1 million as being the benchmark? Not so much because of ADP, but instead of the feared hot read.
Midday Market Minute: June 7, 2021
Markets are digesting Friday’s enthusiasm, some better than others. In a pivotal week, let’s look at how things are setting up fundamentally and technically.
Trading the Jobs Report Into Next Week
It is Jobs Friday and today’s Nonfarm Payroll report for May will prove pivotal. It comes on the heels of April’s disappointment and when those Federal Reserve officials who are more hawkish have again begun talking about, talking about tapering bond purchases.
Risk-Off and Jobs
After struggling at resistance all week, U.S. benchmarks are now pointing lower and working their way through supports ahead of the bell.
Midday Market Minute: June 2, 2021
An inside session is developing for stock indices and metals while Crude Oil makes a run at yesterday’s high.
Midday Market Minute: June 1, 2021
Lack of Follow Through
The S&P, NQ, Crude, Gold, and other commodities all came in from early session highs. This is what we are looking at?
June Brings a Bullish Tone
U.S. benchmarks are pointing higher ahead of the first opening bell of June. The S&P is less than 0.5% from a new record and the Dow about 0.7%. Over in Europe, the German DAX has already set a fresh record.
A Near-Term Inflection Point, Here is Why
U.S. benchmarks erased their holiday session gains early yesterday and battled at unchanged before finishing slightly lower. Only halfway through the month and even after yesterday’s soft tape, the S&P and NQ are up 6% and 6.6%, respectively.
Risk-Assets are Vulnerable, Here is Why
U.S. benchmarks have so far refused to give ground this week. They are holding steadily above last Friday’s settlement and break to fresh record highs. Waves of selling have certainly tested the market’s resilience, but a dovish Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday reaffirmed the notable ‘Fed Put’.
Inflation is Here, More is Coming
Three of four U.S. benchmarks, the S&P, NQ, and Russell 2000, finished at a record high Friday. The Dow was not far behind, achieving such already to start the week. The move comes on fiscal stimulus progress in Washington and certainly not because of January’s job growth.
Divergence and Once a Decade Move
U.S. benchmarks could not hold their rebound yesterday and were slammed into the close. This leaves a very uncertain and vulnerable landscape ahead of the weekend. In part, the violent swings from elevated levels are simply not conducive to higher prices.
The Biggest Short Cover in History
The flood gates opened through yesterday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting and U.S. benchmarks closed sharply lower. The committee left policy unchanged, but the risk-landscape has been on shaky footing due to ongoing fiscal policy delays in Washington.
This Extremely Bullish Pattern Cannot Go Unnoticed
As the stimulus impasse in Washington drags on, the market has priced out enthusiasm for a Coronavirus Aid bill ahead of the election. Last night, the final presidential debate before the November 3rd election was, for all intents and purposes, normal.