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Invesco US

February 4, 2020

Three Issues That Could Keep Global Markets Reeling

Over the course of less than two weeks, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell from over 1.8% to 1.51%, and the yield on the 10-year German bund dropped from -0.22% to -0.44%. This week, I see the potential for continued market volatility, both to the upside and the downside. Here are three key issues I’m watching…

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Invesco US

January 28, 2020

Assessing the Market Impact of The Wuhan Coronavirus

The outbreak of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, and in pockets around the world has garnered significant public concern, and the global financial market is on edge. We have received numerous questions about the potential impact to investors and how the economic effects of the coronavirus might compare to past outbreaks such as the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003.

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Invesco US

January 7, 2020

Five Issues for Investors to Watch in January

The conflict in the Middle East could pressure business sentiment. 2019 was a great year for markets, and equities delivered strong returns for the year. US stocks led the way at 29.07%, Chinese stocks returned 20.94%, European stocks returned 20.03%, and emerging markets delivered 15.42%.

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Invesco US

December 3, 2019

2020 Outlook: An Optimistic View of Capital Markets

As we look ahead to 2020, it’s clear that central banks are still shouldering the burden for stimulating the economy via monetary policy. That should bode well for 2020, in our view. However, we believe such monetary easing should be more positively impactful for asset prices than the overall economy. Economic uncertainty is likely to continue to depress capital spending, in our view, and we must watch vigilantly to ensure it doesn’t spill over into diminished hiring plans.

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Invesco US

November 5, 2019

The Fed Gives Stocks Free Rein To Run. Can The Rally Continue?

Last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting proceeded largely as expected, but a very important development for stocks occurred during the follow-up press conference. As expected, the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, in its announcement, the Fed removed the language that stated it would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

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Invesco US

October 22, 2019

Should Investors Be Scared Of A Halloween Sell-Off?

After all, some of the biggest stock market crashes have occurred in October, such as the Panic of 1907, the 1929 crash, and the 1987 crash. We even witnessed a significant stock market sell-off last October. However, if we were to look at the overall statistics, we would see that October has not historically been the worst month for stock market performance. In fact, there is even a name for this behavioral finance phenomenon — “the October effect.”

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Invesco US

October 1, 2019

News Versus Noise: Assessing The Market Impact Of Three Major Headlines

One of the key themes I have been discussing in the last several years is geopolitical disruption — and we got a heavy dose of it last week. However, one of my main points over the past few years is that investors should try to identify the geopolitical disruption that really matters for the economy and markets, and ignore the events that are just background noise (most fall into this category, in my view).

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Invesco US

September 24, 2019

Markets Shake Off A Series Of Unusual Events

Another very surprising but ultimately anticlimactic chain of events occurred over the last week. There was a serious drone strike on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend of Sept. 14 and 15, knocking out two key installations and dramatically curtailing oil production. Not surprisingly, there was a major shock to the price of oil on Monday, Sept. 16, with crude oil rising more than $10 per barrel in price.1

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Invesco US

August 20, 2019

Beyond The Yield Curve: Other Economic Indicators To Watch

Last week, the US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury rate, briefly inverted. An inverted yield curve is considered to be a good predictor of recession, and so markets sold off on fears that a recession will occur in the next year. However, I believe a US recession is not a foregone conclusion — and so we should monitor the economic data closely.

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Invesco US

August 13, 2019

You Can’t Train A Great White Shark – Or Control Global Trade

In my view, the US has exhibited these two forms of overconfidence bias in its current trade situation. First, the desirability effect: In my travels, it has been clear that the vast majority of Americans I’ve spoken with believe it would be desirable to have more favorable trading conditions, which helps to explain why the Trump administration has been so focused on strong-arming other nations, especially China, into better trade agreements.

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Invesco US

July 16, 2019

Waiting For A Rate Cut: How Much Is Too Much?

There is a famous Rolling Stones song that provides sage advice for demanding toddlers and spoiled teenagers — and perhaps financial markets: “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, well you might find, you get what you need.” That refrain is stuck in my head as I anticipate this month’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

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Invesco US

June 18, 2019

Will the Fed Lose Its Patience This Week?

All eyes will be on this week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting — especially the statement (whether the central bank will retain its “patient” stance) and the “dot plot” (which charts the outlook for interest rates). The June 18-19 Fed meeting is very important because market expectations have gotten so dovish recently.

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Invesco US

June 4, 2019

The Month Of May Was A ‘Game-Changer’ For Markets

It’s the beginning of June, and I haven’t been this happy to welcome a new month in a very long time. I suspect many investors and market watchers have that same feeling. May was brutal for markets — but it was more than just that. The month of May was, in my opinion, a game-changer.

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Invesco US

May 21, 2019

Global Markets: Five Events To Watch This Week

Weekly Market Compass: Tracking elections in Europe and India, and several reports in the US. It seems that so much happens in a given week these days. However, this week could be particularly momentous as we start to get answers on some key questions that have implications for global markets. Here are five events to watch…

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Invesco US

May 7, 2019

US-China Trade Talks Stumble, And Stocks Tumble

US-China trade talks have taken a turn for the worse in the last several days and may temporarily go off the rails. It all started when President Trump threatened to increase the level of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% by May 10, asserting that China is taking too long in the negotiations and is attempting to “renegotiate.” He also threatened to place 25% tariffs on additional goods. Now China, in response, has threatened to cancel trade negotiations planned for this week between the US and China.

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