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Patrick has been with since 1997 and authors the Page One, The Big Picture, Fed Brief, and Market View columns. He also provides commentary on Live In Play.

January 15, 2021

Recovery Trade Takes A Break

There was a time when the behavior of the market was characterized as risk on or risk off. These days, the characterization is more like recovery trade on or recovery trade off. It’s a subtle, but important, nuance.

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January 13, 2021

Not Feeling the Burn Yet

The story this morning isn’t so much that it is going to be a bad day all around as it is that it will be a soft start all around. That’s the impression one gets looking at the futures market.

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January 11, 2021

Letting Out Some Air

The U.S. equity market is slated to start today’s session on a negative note. That’s largely because last week struck such a good note for the bulls, notwithstanding everything else that was happening outside the stock market.

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December 29, 2020

Life in The Bubble

The U.S. stock market isn’t glutton for punishment. On the contrary, it continues to embrace the gluttony of further gains, largely irrespective of anything negative that might be happening outside its Covid bubble.

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December 15, 2020

Cash Market Given Do-Over Opportunity

There is some futures trading deja vu this morning, as the futures for the major indices are trading solidly higher. If there is a deja vu experience for the cash market, though, then what we see now won’t look nearly as good by the end of the day.

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December 14, 2020

Pfizer Vaccine Authorization Helps Wake Up the Trading Echoes

The futures for the major indices are sporting some sizable gains this morning based on news that everyone expected to hear. That news is that the FDA approved the Covid vaccine from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) for emergency use authorization in patients 16 years or older.

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December 8, 2020

Taking a Timeout

Currently, the S&P futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 94 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

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December 7, 2020

Chase Rabbit Still on the Rail

Today, a case can be made that the direction of the cash market at Friday’s closing bell is the key for understanding the softness in the futures market this morning.

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December 2, 2020

Hairline Fracture in the Price Action

There has been a break in the buying action. What remains to be seen is if it will lead to a break in the market or whether it’s just a break before another leg higher.

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November 30, 2020

Headed For a Mixed Start

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 137 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

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November 24, 2020

Ongoing Belief in Good Outcomes

We’re not sure the stock market needed another excuse to rally in this holiday-shortened week, but it has one and it is going to rally at the start of today’s trading.

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November 23, 2020

Another Vaccine Monday

AstraZeneca (AZN) said one of the dosing regimens in its clinical trial done in partnership with Oxford was found to be 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus.

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November 20, 2020

Mystery Theater Set to Begin

Will the reopening trade win out or will it be the shutdown trade? Will there be hope in fiscal stimulus plans or will there be despair? Will there be optimism about COVID vaccines or will there be pessimism about the explosion of coronavirus cases?

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November 16, 2020

Moderna Vaccine News Helping to Make Things Go Right

Something else going right is the direction of the broader market. The S&P 500 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 434 points and are trading 1.5% above fair value.

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November 13, 2020

Back In A Good Place for Now

Let your mind wander to a place where there is no pandemic, no contested election, and no squabbling over a fiscal stimulus plan. It’s a pretty good place, right?

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November 11, 2020

The Future Is Right Now

There is a lot of bad news right now with respect to the coronavirus. The stock market right now, though, isn’t bothered by any of it.

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November 9, 2020

Market Sprints Toward Vaccine Light at End of Tunnel

The broader market is set to fly at the start of today’s trading in an understandable relief rally tied to the news from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) that their COVID vaccine candidate proved more than 90% effective in clinical trials for participants without evidence of prior infection.

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November 5, 2020

A Split Decision for Stock Market

Last week, the S&P 500 declined 5.6%. It took less than three, full sessions this week to recoup that loss and then some. To be fair, some late selling yesterday left the S&P 500 up “only” 5.3% for the week at yesterday’s close.

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November 4, 2020

Election Waiting Game Still Being Played

First things first: the winner of the presidential election is still unknown. Secondly, the futures market is displaying large gains this morning, particularly the Nasdaq 100 futures, and the Treasury market is displaying large gains as well, particularly longer-dated securities.

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November 3, 2020

New Political Facts on the Horizon

Election Day is here. Whether the election result arrives on Election Night is what everyone is wondering. That point notwithstanding, the futures market doesn’t appear to be suffering from any bouts of uncertainty.

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October 22, 2020

The Stimulus Beat Goes on In Tired Fashion

The stock market seems to have grown tired of the politicking, though, and has grown restless at the thought of having to play the waiting game, which could conceivably stretch into the first quarter pending the election results.

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October 14, 2020

Lacking Much of a Bias

Dow components Goldman Sachs (GS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) tried to help. Both beat consensus earnings expectations (Goldman beat by a mile) and both stocks are trading higher. GS is up 2.2% and UNH is up 0.7%.

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October 12, 2020

No Stimulus Pushes Growth Stock Trade

Over the weekend, the White House made a $1.8 trillion stimulus package proposal. Notably, it was rejected by House Democrats and Senate Republicans, albeit for different reasons.

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