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Black Swan Capital, LLC is an investment and trading research firm whose ideas cover foreign currencies, stocks, bonds, gold, and oil. We integrate our global macro analysis with our technical pattern analysis (Elliott Wave) to produce unique and independent trading ideas for our newsletter subscribers.

Black Swan Capital, LLC

October 4, 2019

Currency Currents: Outlook, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

The currency equation of expected total return – This equation says the primary rationale for holding a particular currency is to maximize total return, and expected total return is a function of the real yield achieved (nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate) and the future exchange rate (that which we are trying to forecast).

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Black Swan Capital, LLC

July 12, 2019

Comments on FX Intervention and the US Dollar

We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack.

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