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Blue Line Futures

December 11, 2019

Grain Express: Dec. 11, 2019

Yesterday’s USDA report lived up to the expectations, a total snoozer. The USDA left US carryout unchanged at 1.910 billion bushels. The only noticeable change came in an increase in world carryout, 295.5mt to 300.5mt, this came on the back of a 6.7 mb increase of Chinese corn production.

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Blue Line Futures

December 10, 2019

Morning Express: Dec. 10, 2019

Major U.S benchmarks have pulled back as much as 1% amid a healthy consolidation in front of a gauntlet of events. U.S and China trade relations are the underlying catalyst but there are a number of themes from Wednesday’s Fed meeting to economic data and drama in Washington that have kept Friday’s post Nonfarm rally in check.

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Blue Line Futures

December 4, 2019

Grain Express: Dec. 4, 2019

March corn futures finished yesterday’s session little changed as market participants continue to look for new news on the wires. Those wires will probably be pretty bare until we get to next week’s USDA report, out on the 10th. Until then, our focus will be on crop developments in South America, along with money flow and technicals.

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Blue Line Futures

December 3, 2019

Morning Express: Dec. 3, 2019

U.S benchmarks slipped to start the week, and this was healthy. Price action is pointing lower again this morning ahead of the bell after President Trump signaled his willingness to delay a U.S-China trade deal until after the 2020 election. With those December 15th tariffs inching ever closer, risk-sentiment is beginning to get antsy at such elevated levels.

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Blue Line Futures

November 25, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 25, 2019

Risk-sentiment is getting a boost to start the week after China promised to tighten intellectual property laws. IP has been a major hurdle in U.S-China trade talks and what we’ve referred to as the substance. China has been extremely reluctant to include it in negotiations, even saying at one point in October it would never be included. The nation now seems to have a change of heart announcing a plan to increase penalties on violations of intellectual property rights and is supposedly considering making it easier to hand down criminal punishments.

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Blue Line Futures

November 21, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 21, 2019

U.S benchmarks are back to the baseline and holding steady. The U.S-China trade narrative is dominating headlines, largely drowning out yesterday’s Fed minutes. Yesterday, it was rumored that an interim “Phase One” trade deal would not be signed this year and equity markets quickly slipped before competing headlines exuded confidence that negotiations to achieve a deal this year are ongoing.

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Blue Line Futures

November 18, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 18, 2019

Major U.S benchmarks achieved a fresh wave of record highs this morning before paring gains as trade anecdotes drive the two-sided tape. It was revealed that U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a “constructive” phone conversation Saturday as the two sides move closer to an interim “Phase One” trade deal.

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Blue Line Futures

November 12, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 13, 2019

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3092, up 4.50
Fundamentals: Both the S&P and NQ set fresh record highs ahead of President Trump’s address at the Economic Club of New York. However, his comments lacked the positive jawboning on U.S-China trade that was expected and price action dissipated into the afternoon. The President did make sure to criticize the Fed’s too hawkish of policy. Ironically, Philadelphia Fed President Harker was speaking at the same time saying that he did not support the most recent cut and how the Fed should stand pat measuring the effects of the policy adjustments. Harker’s comments are important as he is a 2020 voter. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, also a 2020 voter, speaks at 5:00 pm CT tonight. Still, equity markets held ground through the session and finished on a strong note. Wednesday’s economic calendar will prove pivotal with U.S CPI due at 7:30 am CT followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony at 10:00 am CT.
Technicals: Price action stretched to a fresh record high in each the S&P and NQ, but key resistance in the S&P at 3100 and major three-star resistance in the NQ at 8300 kept the rally in check. Upon a wave of selling, our pivot levels for Tuesday’s session ultimately held extremely well for each and this allowed the bulls to step in for a firm close. Heading into Wednesday, the pivot levels are a bit higher and for the NQ it is our major three-star level at 8250-8261.50 given that the NQ settled above here at 8275. It would be very constructive for the bulls if price action holds firmly at or above these levels through the overnight and into tomorrow morning’s opening bell. In a larger scale, the line in the sand to the downside remains major three-star support at 3063.25-3069.25 in the S&P and 8150-8179.25 in the NQ; a break below here would encourage a strong wave of selling.

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Blue Line Futures

November 12, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 12, 2019

U.S. benchmarks snapped back after the open yesterday to pare Sunday night losses. The tape remains firm ahead of the bell today with a speech from President Trump at the Economic Club of New York in focus. The speech is scheduled to begin at 11:00 am CT but usual formalities may delay it just a bit. Most importantly, the market is expecting positive comments from the President on U.S-China trade.

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Blue Line Futures

November 11, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 11, 2019

U.S. benchmarks are set to open lower to start the week on this Veteran’s Day holiday. On Friday, President Trump addressed what we were already suspecting saying he does not want to rollback current tariffs in order to achieve the interim “Phase One” trade deal with China. While this threw a bit of cold water over sentiment, it was largely expected, and equities broadly took it in stride; the S&P and NQ each closed at record levels.

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Blue Line Futures

November 7, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 7, 2019

The word of the day is de-escalation. We are seeing major U.S benchmarks trek towards fresh records after China’s Foreign Ministry announced both sides plan to cancel existing tariffs in phases proportionally and at the same time sign an interim “Phase One” trade deal. The U.S has yet to confirm such steps and this leads us to believe there are two ways to look at it.

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Blue Line Futures

November 5, 2019

Grain Express: Nov. 5, 2019

December corn futures were softer to start the week as the lack of bullish headlines coupled with harvest pressure was too much for the bulls to overcome. Crop Progress was released after the close, showing corn conditions unchanged at 58% good/excellent. Harvest is said to be 52% complete, this is 2% behind expectations and 23% behind the five-year average.

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Blue Line Futures

November 4, 2019

Grain Express: November 4, 2019

Last week, corn futures traded both sides of unchanged but finished fractionally higher. Crop Progress will be out this afternoon, after that, much of the attention will turn towards Friday’s WASDE report. We will continue to compile estimates and have those for you by mid-week. Friday’s Commitment of traders showed that funds sold 9,322 contracts from October 22nd to October 29th, expanding their net short position to 85,337.

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Blue Line Futures

October 29, 2019

Morning Express: October 29, 2019

It was a strong start to the week with all four major U.S benchmarks gaining at least 0.5%. The ES and NQ each set fresh record highs and the board is stable ahead of the bell. Earnings remain in the spotlight, Alphabet missed EPS expectations after the close yesterday but did beat on revenue. The company cited rising costs as it expands its cloud business, but the report was overall not that bad.

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Blue Line Futures

October 28, 2019

Morning Express: October 28, 2019

Fed week is underway with the S&P and NQ looking to open Monday’s session at record highs. Strong earnings, upbeat jawboning on U.S-China trade and a 94% probability the committee cuts rates Wednesday have all added a bullish tailwind to the tape. AT&T reported this morning and beat adjusted EPS estimates but fell short on revenue. The stock is up nearly 2% premarket on strong subscriber growth.

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Blue Line Futures

October 24, 2019

Grain Express: October 24, 2019

December corn futures managed to stage a rather constructive session, despite prices being little changed at the close. Export sales this morning came in at 491,500 metric tons, up 15% from the four-week average. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report showed production rose 25,000 barrels per day.

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Blue Line Futures

October 22, 2019

Morning Express: Oct. 22, 2019

U.S benchmarks started the week off on strong footing and the S&P extended to one-month highs overnight. A tailwind of positive sentiment comes from Washington and China lauding substantial progress in talks while pointing to the likeliness of an interim deal being signed by President Trump and President Xi at the G-20 Summit next month.

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Blue Line Futures

October 18, 2019

Grain Express: October 18, 2019

The market chopped around yesterday thanks to a slow news day. The weekly EIA ethanol report showed production increase 8,000 barrels per day to 971,000 bpd. Export sales this morning came in at 368,600 metric tons. We remain optimistic on prices but really need to see the demand side of the picture brighten up.

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Blue Line Futures

October 14, 2019

FX Rundown: October 14, 2019

Fundamentals: Risk assets found broad support to finish last week as President Trump paraded an interim trade deal. Mounting positivity surrounding Brexit and soft U.S inflation data brought additional tailwinds to help the Euro settle Friday at the highest level since September 19th. The tables quickly turned coming out of the weekend though, cold water was poured over progress on each U.S-China and Brexit. Still, the Euro is clinging to gains in a low volatility atmosphere ahead of a crucial German ZEW Sentiment read tomorrow morning. The economic data has not gotten any better, Chinese Trade Balance last night showed Exports and Imports both contracted more than expected and tomorrow we hear the IMF’s revised growth estimates. We continue to believe rallies in the Euro are sell opportunities and if ZEW misses at 4:00 am CT tomorrow, look for follow through from today’s session to the downside.

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Blue Line Futures

October 14, 2019

Grain Express: October 14, 2019

December corn futures went bid on Friday as shorts rushed to cover ahead weekend uncertainty. That uncertainty came from the weather and trade talks. Weather ended up being within the realm of expectations which is why you’re seeing futures little changed this morning, this was a classic, buy the rumor sell the news situation; something we wrote about last Wednesday.

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Blue Line Futures

October 11, 2019

Morning Express: October 11, 2019

U.S benchmarks are surging into U.S hours Friday on hopes of an interim trade deal. President Trump has lauded progress between high-level delegates and is set to meet Vice Premier Liu He today. In the past, meetings between the two have marked a short-term truce in this ever-going dispute.

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Blue Line Futures

October 10, 2019

Morning Express: October 10, 2019

Price action continues to run in circles on the ever-revolving U.S and China trade headlines. Sentiment was roiled early last night on reports of no progress between deputy level negotiators and that China was planning on heading home early. It’s a different story at the onset of U.S hours with price action clawing back losses on renewed hopes of an interim or partial deal, that Washington would suspend a scheduled increase in tariffs and Chinese delegates are planning to stay the full schedule through Friday.

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Blue Line Futures

October 8, 2019

Morning Express: October 8, 2019

Major indices are slipping into U.S hours as trade tensions heat up before Thursday’s talks. This round of talks between high-level U.S and Chinese delegates in Washington has been lauded as a crucial turning point to make a deal. A revolving door of headlines yesterday gyrated the S&P around unchanged, but a sour taste was left after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said changes to intellectual property laws will ‘never’ be on the table. Washington fired back by blacklisting 28 Chinese companies in total, including eight tech companies that range from video surveillance to artificial intelligence.

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Blue Line Futures

October 3, 2019

Grain Express: October 3, 2019

December corn futures finished yesterdays session on softer ground on the back of a light wave of profit taking. We would not be terribly surprised to see this continue today, ultimately it is healthy and would likely set up as a better buying opportunity. Export sales this morning came in at 562,600 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Weather and yield reports will become increasingly important over the coming weeks.

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