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Stocks Priced for Perfection and Dollar in Focus
The earnings carousel continues, and UPS is the highlight this morning. The stock is up 5% after not only the company topped estimates, but every one of its business segments did.
Earnings, Crude Spreads, and China Lockdowns
China implements lockdowns, Covid cases found in 11 provinces. Cases rising across the U.K., Germany, and Russia, among others.
Midday Market Minute: October 20, 2021
U.S. benchmarks have paused to digest recent gains. Yesterday, we detailed a bullish scenario paving the way to 4620 in the S&P.
Midday Market Minute: October 19, 2021
A Secular Bull Market in Commodities
This is a secular bull market in commodities. Copper +10% on the WEEK and highest since May.
Midday Market Minute: October 14, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 13, 2021
Stagflation Fears Rippling Through
Fears of stagflation and strong technical resistance kept a lid on early strength and paved the way for heavy waves of selling.
Midday Market Minute: October 7, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 5, 2021
Midday Market Minute: October 4, 2021
Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China
OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year.
A Fresh Start for Markets
It is a new quarter, a new month, and a fresh start for this market. Price action was slammed into settlement yesterday and bled lower overnight. A circus of events over the last three weeks culminated into the lowest close in the S&P since July 19th.
USDA in Focus
Today is the day that we’ve all been waiting for; end of the month, end of the quarter, and the quarterly USDA stocks report.
Get a Pulse on Ags
Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 517,539 metric tons, within the range of expectations. The Monday afternoon crop progress report showed that 74% of the crop is mature and 18% of the crop is harvested.
A Melting Pot of Narratives, Last Week of Q3
Tailwinds from a strong rebound last week carried to start the session, but U.S. benchmarks have surrendered those gains. In fact, the NQ has given up 1% from its overnight high. It is the last week of the 3rd quarter and there is a melting pot of narratives to focus on.
Did Monday Set the Stage For A Monster Rebound?
Yesterday’s bloodbath ended on a positive note. Not only did the S&P pare losses by 1%, but there was also more volume in the E-mini S&P in final 30 minutes than in the opening 30 minutes.
China, Inflation, and a Potential Crude Breakout
Deluge of economic indicators from China for August last night all underwhelmed and were impacted by Covid. China Industrial Production for August YoY at 5.3% versus 5.8% expected was the slowest since last July.
Crop Production. Got Ags?
This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales for the 2021/2022 marketing year, which began September 1, totaled 905,800 MT.
Ags with WASDE in Focus Tomorrow
Tomorrow is the WASDE/Crop Production report, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst estimate for yield is 175.8 bushels per acre.
Jobs and Central Bankers
Traders eye tomorrow’s ECB meeting and expectations are mounting for the central bank to reduce its quantitative easing program.
Trading Jobs Friday
Nonfarm Payroll is due at 7:30 am CT. The report will be watched extremely close, for it could signal the Federal Reserve’s next move come September 22nd.
Record Highs and Claims Ahead of Nonfarm
U.S. benchmarks are again pointing higher after strength overnight. However, this week, price action has struggled to hold highs through the entirety of the U.S. session as it digests a vicious rally over the last two weeks.
Top Three Things to Watch this Week
Midday Market Minute: August 26, 2021
Understanding Risk-Assets Ahead of Powell
On Wednesday, we discussed the House paving the way for President Biden’s $4 trillion budget and how the lingering debt ceiling impacts Treasury issuance. The Jackson Hole Symposium will be fully virtual tomorrow. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 9:00 am CT is the main event.