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Blue Line Futures

January 21, 2020

Grain Express: Jan. 21, 2020

March corn futures rallied hard on Friday, erasing all of Thursday’s losses and then some. Rumors that China secured multiple cargoes of US corn helped offer support, but there hasn’t been confirmation on that yet.

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Blue Line Futures

January 15, 2020

Grain Express: Jan. 15, 2020

Corn futures were mute yesterday as the market ran out of new news to break prices out above technical resistance. Today is the signing of the highly anticipated Phase-1 trade agreement. It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen. My guess is that Phase-1 is largely an agreement to proceed to Phase-2.

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Blue Line Futures

January 14, 2020

Breakfast Report: Jan. 14, 2020

Sugar continues to surprise to the upside with global production issues coming front and center. If we see an uptick in energy futures this could be the spark needed to take out some of the key levels from the past. Traders should be long from the high 13.70’s low 13.80’s and moving stops up to break even at this point.

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Blue Line Futures

January 13, 2020

Morning Express: Jan. 13, 2020

U.S benchmarks traded to record highs early Friday morning before an underwhelming Nonfarm Payroll report softened the tape. There were 145,000 jobs created in December versus 164,000 expected and Average Hourly Earnings increased by only 0.1% versus 0.3% expected.

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Blue Line Futures

January 10, 2020

Morning Express: Jan. 10, 2020

U.S benchmarks closed at record highs yesterday and extended gains overnight ahead of Nonfarm Payroll at 7:30 am CT. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner.

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Blue Line Futures

January 9, 2020

Grain Express: Jan. 9, 2020

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices on afternoon of Jan. 7. Corn (March) – If it hasn’t yet, attention now turns to tomorrow’s USDA report, out at 11am CT.

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Blue Line Futures

January 8, 2020

Morning Express: Jan. 8, 2020

Markets across the board digested this as the closest thing to an olive branch we could see. Safe haven assets along with Crude Oil began paring gains and U.S equity benchmarks roared back, turning positive early this morning. It was also confirmed by U.S officials around 6:30 am CT that there were no casualties. President Trump is expected to address the situation this morning.

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Blue Line Futures

January 7, 2020

Morning Express: Jan. 7, 2020

U.S benchmarks shook off Middle East tensions and surged higher on the opening bell yesterday. The S&P turned positive by noon and extended gains into the close. Price action remains firm at the onset of U.S hours despite threats of retaliation by Iran for the killing of its general.

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Blue Line Futures

January 6, 2020

Grain Express: Jan. 6, 2020

Corn futures took a dive on Friday, muting the momentum that had built up in the first half of the week. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have sparked concern that it may derail the signing of Phase-1 with China next week, because China and Iran recently completed joint military exercises.

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Blue Line Futures

January 2, 2020

Morning Express: Jan. 2, 2020

It’s a new year, but not a new chapter in this bull market. U.S benchmarks are pointing higher by at least 0.50% on the first trading day of 2020. European benchmarks are up about 1%, the Shanghai Composite gained 1.15% and the Hang Seng 1.25%.

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Blue Line Futures

December 18, 2019

Morning Express: Dec. 18, 2019

Equity benchmarks around the world are steady. Economic data out of the U.S yesterday was all better than expected; Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and JOLTs Job Openings. German Ifo Business Climate followed suit this morning.

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Blue Line Futures

December 16, 2019

Grain Express: Dec. 16, 2019

March corn futures rallied hard in the back half of last week which has carried over into early morning momentum. Much of the relief has come on the back of broad-based buying in the grain sector as US and China have come to an agreement on a Phase-1 trade deal, yet to be signed and implemented. This news has sparked a round of short covering from funds.

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Blue Line Futures

December 11, 2019

Grain Express: Dec. 11, 2019

Yesterday’s USDA report lived up to the expectations, a total snoozer. The USDA left US carryout unchanged at 1.910 billion bushels. The only noticeable change came in an increase in world carryout, 295.5mt to 300.5mt, this came on the back of a 6.7 mb increase of Chinese corn production.

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Blue Line Futures

December 10, 2019

Morning Express: Dec. 10, 2019

Major U.S benchmarks have pulled back as much as 1% amid a healthy consolidation in front of a gauntlet of events. U.S and China trade relations are the underlying catalyst but there are a number of themes from Wednesday’s Fed meeting to economic data and drama in Washington that have kept Friday’s post Nonfarm rally in check.

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Blue Line Futures

December 4, 2019

Grain Express: Dec. 4, 2019

March corn futures finished yesterday’s session little changed as market participants continue to look for new news on the wires. Those wires will probably be pretty bare until we get to next week’s USDA report, out on the 10th. Until then, our focus will be on crop developments in South America, along with money flow and technicals.

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Blue Line Futures

December 3, 2019

Morning Express: Dec. 3, 2019

U.S benchmarks slipped to start the week, and this was healthy. Price action is pointing lower again this morning ahead of the bell after President Trump signaled his willingness to delay a U.S-China trade deal until after the 2020 election. With those December 15th tariffs inching ever closer, risk-sentiment is beginning to get antsy at such elevated levels.

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Blue Line Futures

November 25, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 25, 2019

Risk-sentiment is getting a boost to start the week after China promised to tighten intellectual property laws. IP has been a major hurdle in U.S-China trade talks and what we’ve referred to as the substance. China has been extremely reluctant to include it in negotiations, even saying at one point in October it would never be included. The nation now seems to have a change of heart announcing a plan to increase penalties on violations of intellectual property rights and is supposedly considering making it easier to hand down criminal punishments.

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Blue Line Futures

November 21, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 21, 2019

U.S benchmarks are back to the baseline and holding steady. The U.S-China trade narrative is dominating headlines, largely drowning out yesterday’s Fed minutes. Yesterday, it was rumored that an interim “Phase One” trade deal would not be signed this year and equity markets quickly slipped before competing headlines exuded confidence that negotiations to achieve a deal this year are ongoing.

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Blue Line Futures

November 18, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 18, 2019

Major U.S benchmarks achieved a fresh wave of record highs this morning before paring gains as trade anecdotes drive the two-sided tape. It was revealed that U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a “constructive” phone conversation Saturday as the two sides move closer to an interim “Phase One” trade deal.

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Blue Line Futures

November 12, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 13, 2019

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3092, up 4.50
Fundamentals: Both the S&P and NQ set fresh record highs ahead of President Trump’s address at the Economic Club of New York. However, his comments lacked the positive jawboning on U.S-China trade that was expected and price action dissipated into the afternoon. The President did make sure to criticize the Fed’s too hawkish of policy. Ironically, Philadelphia Fed President Harker was speaking at the same time saying that he did not support the most recent cut and how the Fed should stand pat measuring the effects of the policy adjustments. Harker’s comments are important as he is a 2020 voter. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, also a 2020 voter, speaks at 5:00 pm CT tonight. Still, equity markets held ground through the session and finished on a strong note. Wednesday’s economic calendar will prove pivotal with U.S CPI due at 7:30 am CT followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony at 10:00 am CT.
Technicals: Price action stretched to a fresh record high in each the S&P and NQ, but key resistance in the S&P at 3100 and major three-star resistance in the NQ at 8300 kept the rally in check. Upon a wave of selling, our pivot levels for Tuesday’s session ultimately held extremely well for each and this allowed the bulls to step in for a firm close. Heading into Wednesday, the pivot levels are a bit higher and for the NQ it is our major three-star level at 8250-8261.50 given that the NQ settled above here at 8275. It would be very constructive for the bulls if price action holds firmly at or above these levels through the overnight and into tomorrow morning’s opening bell. In a larger scale, the line in the sand to the downside remains major three-star support at 3063.25-3069.25 in the S&P and 8150-8179.25 in the NQ; a break below here would encourage a strong wave of selling.

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Blue Line Futures

November 12, 2019

Morning Express: Nov. 12, 2019

U.S. benchmarks snapped back after the open yesterday to pare Sunday night losses. The tape remains firm ahead of the bell today with a speech from President Trump at the Economic Club of New York in focus. The speech is scheduled to begin at 11:00 am CT but usual formalities may delay it just a bit. Most importantly, the market is expecting positive comments from the President on U.S-China trade.

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