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Blue Line Futures

October 22, 2019

Morning Express: Oct. 22, 2019

U.S benchmarks started the week off on strong footing and the S&P extended to one-month highs overnight. A tailwind of positive sentiment comes from Washington and China lauding substantial progress in talks while pointing to the likeliness of an interim deal being signed by President Trump and President Xi at the G-20 Summit next month.

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Blue Line Futures

October 18, 2019

Grain Express: October 18, 2019

The market chopped around yesterday thanks to a slow news day. The weekly EIA ethanol report showed production increase 8,000 barrels per day to 971,000 bpd. Export sales this morning came in at 368,600 metric tons. We remain optimistic on prices but really need to see the demand side of the picture brighten up.

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Blue Line Futures

October 14, 2019

FX Rundown: October 14, 2019

Fundamentals: Risk assets found broad support to finish last week as President Trump paraded an interim trade deal. Mounting positivity surrounding Brexit and soft U.S inflation data brought additional tailwinds to help the Euro settle Friday at the highest level since September 19th. The tables quickly turned coming out of the weekend though, cold water was poured over progress on each U.S-China and Brexit. Still, the Euro is clinging to gains in a low volatility atmosphere ahead of a crucial German ZEW Sentiment read tomorrow morning. The economic data has not gotten any better, Chinese Trade Balance last night showed Exports and Imports both contracted more than expected and tomorrow we hear the IMF’s revised growth estimates. We continue to believe rallies in the Euro are sell opportunities and if ZEW misses at 4:00 am CT tomorrow, look for follow through from today’s session to the downside.

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Blue Line Futures

October 14, 2019

Grain Express: October 14, 2019

December corn futures went bid on Friday as shorts rushed to cover ahead weekend uncertainty. That uncertainty came from the weather and trade talks. Weather ended up being within the realm of expectations which is why you’re seeing futures little changed this morning, this was a classic, buy the rumor sell the news situation; something we wrote about last Wednesday.

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Blue Line Futures

October 11, 2019

Morning Express: October 11, 2019

U.S benchmarks are surging into U.S hours Friday on hopes of an interim trade deal. President Trump has lauded progress between high-level delegates and is set to meet Vice Premier Liu He today. In the past, meetings between the two have marked a short-term truce in this ever-going dispute.

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Blue Line Futures

October 10, 2019

Morning Express: October 10, 2019

Price action continues to run in circles on the ever-revolving U.S and China trade headlines. Sentiment was roiled early last night on reports of no progress between deputy level negotiators and that China was planning on heading home early. It’s a different story at the onset of U.S hours with price action clawing back losses on renewed hopes of an interim or partial deal, that Washington would suspend a scheduled increase in tariffs and Chinese delegates are planning to stay the full schedule through Friday.

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Blue Line Futures

October 8, 2019

Morning Express: October 8, 2019

Major indices are slipping into U.S hours as trade tensions heat up before Thursday’s talks. This round of talks between high-level U.S and Chinese delegates in Washington has been lauded as a crucial turning point to make a deal. A revolving door of headlines yesterday gyrated the S&P around unchanged, but a sour taste was left after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said changes to intellectual property laws will ‘never’ be on the table. Washington fired back by blacklisting 28 Chinese companies in total, including eight tech companies that range from video surveillance to artificial intelligence.

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Blue Line Futures

October 3, 2019

Grain Express: October 3, 2019

December corn futures finished yesterdays session on softer ground on the back of a light wave of profit taking. We would not be terribly surprised to see this continue today, ultimately it is healthy and would likely set up as a better buying opportunity. Export sales this morning came in at 562,600 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Weather and yield reports will become increasingly important over the coming weeks.

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Blue Line Futures

October 2, 2019

Morning Express: October 2, 2019

U.S benchmarks slipped sharply south yesterday, and price action is now at one-month lows. Our narrative played out perfectly; this market must see better data in order to perform strongly. We have said it’s making a transition from Fed easing dependence to growth dependence.

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Blue Line Futures

September 26, 2019

Grain Express: September 26, 2019

Export sales this morning came in at 494,000 metric tons, a bit of a disappointment from last weeks number. There hasn’t been much new news to move the market, but we expect to start hearing more on yields as harvest ramps up over the coming weeks. Corn has been a stick in the mud at 375 +/- a few cents.

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Blue Line Futures

September 24, 2019

Morning Express: September 24, 2019

Following a mundane start to the week, U.S benchmarks got a boost for Tuesday’s session early Monday night on comments from U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that talks between him and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He would begin in two weeks. The news was nothing new, but the whirlwind surrounding last Friday’s cancelled farm visit had poured cold water over trade hopes. Reports that China is allowing Soybean purchases without tariffs is also lifting the mood.

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Blue Line Futures

September 19, 2019

Morning Express: September 19, 2019

The Fed met expectations yesterday by cutting rates and although U.S benchmarks swung briefly in both directions, they are right where they were leading up to the policy decision. FOMC members poured cold water over the action by not forecasting additional cuts this year. In contrast, the market is pricing in a coin flip that we see another cut in October and a 60% probability they cut again before year-end.

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Blue Line Futures

September 17, 2019

Grain Express: September 17, 2019

Corn futures sprang higher yesterday on the back of a few headlines revolving around the energy sector. The first headline was the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facility, spiking oil prices which trickles down into strength in ethanol and corn. The wheels are also in motion for the Administration to increase the required bio-fuel blends for refineries. That news is now behind us and crude and corn are both coming off the highs in the early morning trade.

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Blue Line Futures

September 12, 2019

Morning Express: September 12, 2019

Padding a stellar session yesterday, U.S benchmarks surged into the close and extended gains overnight to a high of 3020. In the Midday Market Minute, we pointed to the likeliness of our upside target at 3004 being achieved into settlement and at the least ahead of today’s ECB policy announcement. Fueling yesterday’s strength was broadly good leadership; Apple, AT&T and Boeing all gained more than 3%.

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Blue Line Futures

September 11, 2019

Grain Express: September 11, 2019

The USDA announced another sale to Mexico yesterday, this time for 278,200 metric tons. Reports out yesterday that National Security Adviser, John Bolton is out of the white house put a pop in the Ag commodities. Bolton was a notorious hawk and a headwind for a trade deal with China. Bolton’s departure will likely change the tone going forward, evident right away as a headline from China was released shortly after saying that they would purchase more US agricultural products to sweeten the pot.

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Blue Line Futures

September 10, 2019

Morning Express: September 10, 2019

U.S benchmarks have edged ever so slightly lower since yesterday’s peak. Major three-star support has buoyed the tape and although we’ve seen worsening economic data from China and Japan overnight, both the poor PPI and Machinery Orders respectively were anticipated. In fact, China’s contracting PPI was less-worse than expected.

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Blue Line Futures

September 6, 2019

Morning Express: September 6, 2019

U.S benchmarks are looking to secure a weekly breakout from a month-long range. Standing in the way is Nonfarm Payroll at 7:30 am CT and a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 11:30. Risk-sentiment was boosted yesterday as the U.S and China jawboned an October meeting and both ISM Non-Manufacturing and Factory Orders came in much better than expected. Our narrative here has been this market wants to see better data whereas recessionary-like numbers would encourage selling. At the same time, stronger inflationary reads will hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates. A 25-basis point cut in two weeks is now not fully priced-in with only a 91.2% probability.

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Blue Line Futures

September 3, 2019

Grain Express: September 3, 2019

December corn futures finished Friday’s session on softer ground, spilling over into early morning weakness to start the new month. We are taking the light volume overnight/early morning trade with a grain of salt, as usual. Weather continues to be watched closely, bulls want to see cooler temps stick around longer. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 37,696 contracts through August 27th, expanding their short position to 94,137 contracts.

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Blue Line Futures

August 30, 2019

Morning Express: August 30, 2019

What a week, the S&P is 4.5% off the Sunday night low and the FOMO melt-up is engaged. The last piece to a bullish puzzle is a close above our rare major four-star resistance discussed in the Technical section below. The previous high settlement in this area was on August 13th after President Trump announced he will delay additional tariffs on China until December.

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Blue Line Futures

August 27, 2019

Morning Express: August 27, 2019

U.S. benchmarks are clinging to yesterday’s recovery, but trade war uncertainties persist. Although China ultimately denies calling the U.S as reported by the White House early yesterday morning, the positive narrative around restarting trade talks and comments from President Trump that a deal is within reach have lifted sentiment from the depths of Sunday’s open. Overall, the risk-appetite is ignoring a clear escalation of tensions between the two sides.

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