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July 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
In our view, the magnitude and speed of the market recovery in the second quarter are noteworthy and potentially cautionary. Government programs have done a better than expected job in replacing individual income to date, though some programs are expected to expire in the next month, which could create challenges.
Blink and You Missed It
June 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
In our view, early indications from recent high frequency data are encouraging, but should be viewed in context and not over-interpreted. As we have highlighted, markets have rallied on policy supports and anticipation of re-opening and medical advances.
U.S. Labor Market: Furloughs and Fragility
Nationwide closures, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing guidelines in response to the virus outbreak have pushed the U.S. unemployment rate to the highest level post-World War II. Even with this historic collapse, job losses are likely worse than the headline figures suggest.
Analyzing the Opportunities for Active Management
What’s Next for China?
May 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
In our view, the markets feel much healthier at the end of April than a month ago, but underappreciated in the improved sentiment is not only the scale of March policy action, but its continuation into April.
Examining the Relationship between Social Distancing and Economic Activity
The crisis continues to evolve, leading to questions of how long the social distance measures will remain, how severe will the infection rate get, and when will peak cases be reached. Gauging the length of these measures is crucial to anticipate the economic impacts to U.S. businesses and consumers.
The Meaty Realities of Food Production
As investors, we are particularly interested in how companies are managing ESG risks in both their operations and supply chains, as well as whether they are seeking opportunities in high-growth areas such as vegan protein.
Virus Starts With V but Ends with U-Shaped
The Opportunity in Small and Microcap Equity
The ten year bull market in US equities ended abruptly in February 2020 as investors started to appreciate the health care, economic, and financial implications of COVID-19.
April 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
The coronavirus and the measures taken to contain it have had a massive impact on individual lives, the economy and financial markets. While known to be large, significant uncertainty remains regarding just how dire the impacts will be.
Congress Comes Through in a Big Way
After many days of intense negotiations (and many bungled sports metaphors to describe how close the sides were to a deal), The Trump Administration and the Senate reached agreement on an extremely large coronavirus stimulus package, totaling roughly $2 trillion.
Repeat After Me: “The Central Bank is the Lender of Last Resort”
Chairman Powell, when asked about the role of fiscal measures to address the economic slowdown, did not mince words – “Fiscal response is critical.” Following the announcement, futures markets and international equity markets retreated. The primary reason for this market reaction is likely the accelerating economic slowdown that is becoming more evident by the hour as closure announcements and business activity restrictions take hold.
Fear the Bear?
The coronavirus-driven equity market selloff since February 19 has been swift and severe. With the sharp downward price action on the S&P 500 on March 9 (driven by virus fears in addition to an oil price crash after Saudi Arabia started a price war), we are now very close to a bear market, 11 years to the day of the Financial Crisis low.
A Rate Cut – But Is It Enough?
The move followed a call between Fed Chairman Jay Powell and other leaders of G-7 economies to discuss developments with the virus and the potential economic fallout.
COVID-19 Pandemic Fear Creates Speed Bumps for Stocks
Is Inflation Frozen Too? Should the Fed Let It Go?
If the economy has been expanding for a decade, why isn’t inflation higher? The reason to ponder the dog that didn’t bark is that inflation has significant impacts to fixed income markets both through implications directly to rates as well as for monetary policy.
U.S. Consumers: Confident Amid the Crosswinds
Coronavirus: The Potential Impact on Markets
We believe the recent market selloff is largely justified given the uncertainty around the impact of the coronavirus and China’s importance for global growth. However, we would view a more severe selloff as a buying opportunity considering we do not expect the coronavirus to derail the strength in the longer-term fundamentals of the global economy.
2020 Outlook: Opportunity for Active Investors in Emerging Markets
Stock market returns in 2019 ended on a high with the MSCI EM index adding over 18% (in U.S dollar) for the year, with a 12% gain in the final quarter. Despite this very strong total return, emerging equities still under performed their developed market counterparts. In particular the US delivered a blockbuster year at 31% (as measured by the S&P 500 Index).
Secrets of 2x Advisors
Our panelists, David Griffin of Atlanta Retirement Plans, Jania Stout of Hightower, and Robert Scherzer of Pensionmark, discuss what they learned on their path to 2x, including how they conquered the challenge of growing so rapidly.
Low Volatility Equities: Why Now, Why Active?
January 2020 Fixed Income Market Update
U.S. economic data surprised to the upside in December with strong employment and growth results and the Fed remained on hold as expected. Progress on tariffs and U.K. election results lowered geopolitical noise for the time being. These developments led to continued improvement in risk sentiment.
Central Banks Fuel Strength in Bonds and Equities
Worldwide Woes and Debt
One of the most fascinating moves in recent years has been the global tumble in long-term government bond yields to never-before-seen levels. In a number of countries, they fell into negative territory.
Exploring the Low Volatility Anomaly
We are taught to assume that there is a linear relationship between risk and return. In other words, for a greater reward you have to take greater risk. And from an investment perspective, we’re taught this concept of the capital asset pricing model or CAPM, which states the expected return of an asset is a function of risk.
December 2019 Fixed Income Market Update
In November, global economic data was mixed, while U.S. growth and employment data continued to surprise to the upside. China trade tensions continued to moderate, which improved risk sentiment, though resolution remains elusive.