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December 12, 2019
We are taught to assume that there is a linear relationship between risk and return. In other words, for a greater reward you have to take greater risk. And from an investment perspective, we’re taught this concept of the capital asset pricing model or CAPM, which states the expected return of an asset is a function of risk.
December 5, 2019
In November, global economic data was mixed, while U.S. growth and employment data continued to surprise to the upside. China trade tensions continued to moderate, which improved risk sentiment, though resolution remains elusive.
November 21, 2019
November 14, 2019
Over the last year, China’s equity markets gained greater global presence when China-A shares were listed on the MSCI and FTSE indices. Yet, the government has been slow to open more investment opportunities to foreigners. In this episode, we explore this rapidly evolving economy and how U.S. investors should view China in the context of their emerging markets exposure.
November 7, 2019
Declining geopolitical risk in the form of tempering of tensions regarding China trade and Brexit as well as easing monetary policy in the U.S. improved market sentiment in the month. Global manufacturing data weakened, while U.S. employment data remained solid.
October 31, 2019
The Federal Reserve Board cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points during their October meeting. This was the third rate cut since July, reducing the Fed Funds Rate 75 basis points since the beginning of the year. Prior to the meeting, various Fed members cited weaker economic data as well as outside risks to the outlook including the US-China trade war and Brexit.
October 17, 2019
The outline for a limited trade deal was announced on Friday between the US and China which involves the US postponing increasing tariffs on $250B of Chinese goods from 25% to 30%, which was scheduled for October 15. In return, China agreed to increase agricultural purchases and make some modest concessions on access to its financial markets and curbs on intellectual property theft. The December tariff hikes were not addressed and no concessions were made on Huawei.
October 10, 2019
October 3, 2019
Receding trade tensions and expectations of further monetary policy easing globally were in focus in September as global data continued to weaken, while U.S. economic data quietly improved.Despite U.S. tariffs on $125 billion worth of Chinese goods as well as Chinese tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods taking effect on the first of the month, overall trade tensions eased in September.
September 26, 2019
78% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, 43% of student loan borrowers are not making payments and nearly half of all employees can’t cover a $400 emergency. In an effort to help employees understand and improve their personal financial health, many plan sponsors and their advisors are turning to workplace financial wellness programs.
September 12, 2019
September 5, 2019
Trade tensions dominated market headlines during the month, while markets continued to digest the shift in U.S. monetary policy begun with the Fed’s rate cut at the end of July.On August 1, the U.S. indicated it would add a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of goods coming from China, with the threat to increase tariffs on $250 billion of goods up to 25% absent progress on a trade deal.
July 25, 2019
July 11, 2019
Shifting expectations around monetary policy globally and trade tensions dominated market news in June.The tariffs that President Trump announced on all imports from Mexico at the end of May were scuttled before implementation as Mexico agreed to institute more stringent border security.
June 27, 2019
How did we get to the 10-year Treasury yield closing in on 2.0%, well below the Federal Reserve (Fed) target of 2.25-2.50%? It’s a fair question that has no clear answer. Let’s face it; relatively speaking, it’s all been a bit surrealistic and tough to digest. But our mystery tour set off late last year on equity weakness as the S&P 500® Index fell 13.5% over the fourth quarter.
June 20, 2019
Country visits: Chile, Peru and Mexico Chile is a country that punches above its weight as a nation. After lagging behind its Latin American peers in terms of GDP per capita in the 1980s, today Chile is the wealthiest nation on the continent and the leader in the region from a human capital perspective.
June 13, 2019
Election fever hit India and Australia in May. The former, the largest democratic election in the world, resulted in a comfortable win for the incumbent – Narendra Modi and his Hindu Nationalist Party (Bharatiya Janata Party). Mr. Modi comes from a humble background and this appears to have resonated with millions of voters aspiring to a similar uplift in fortunes.
June 6, 2019
The market sentiment decline in May was largely driven by the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China. After expectations of a near term resolution had buoyed markets in April, these hopes faded in May.
May 30, 2019
Markets just got a wake-up call on trade that interrupted their pleasant dreams of recovery from late last year. Aggressive U.S.-China negotiations have now escalated to an outright trade war, with significant tariff levies on both sides, and more threatened. Reports of Chinese flexibility on technology transfer and intellectual property violations have given way to accusations of U.S. “blackmail,” vows to never give ground on China’s “core interests,” and greater importance placed on bilateral deals with Europe.
May 23, 2019
The IRS recently altered course and announced that it will no longer stop employers from offering retirees a lump sum payment in exchange for their pensions. Initial reactions have been that this is very bad — comparing lump sum cash-outs to cigarettes — legal, liked and bad for you.
May 9, 2019
The IMF commented that its global growth outlook “reflects a combination of waning cyclical forces and a return to tepid potential growth in advanced economies; a precarious recovery in emerging market and developing economies, driven to a great extent by economies currently experiencing severe macroeconomic distress; and complex factors that shape the prospects for potential growth in both groups… the possibility of further downside revisions is high, and the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside.” We have heard that language before.
May 2, 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth outlook for 2019 to 3.3% from 3.5%, while noting it believed “the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside.” For 2020 though, the IMF expects an improvement of growth to 3.6%. Euro-area GDP grew more than expected in the first quarter at 0.4% and 1.2% for the trailing year. Unemployment in the Eurozone declined 0.1% to 7.7% in February. However, other data such as manufacturing PMI declined to 51.3 in April from 51.6 in March.
April 25, 2019
It’s very hard to visit Vietnam and not get excited about the opportunity. Looking at the country today, there are many similarities with China 15 years ago. Indeed, the rate of development in Vietnam since it opened up to the world in 1990 is almost identical to the first 18 years of China’s growth post 1977. But the similarities go well beyond the growth rates.
