November 24, 2020
Ongoing Belief in Good Outcomes
We’re not sure the stock market needed another excuse to rally in this holiday-shortened week, but it has one and it is going to rally at the start of today’s trading.
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November 23, 2020
Another Vaccine Monday
AstraZeneca (AZN) said one of the dosing regimens in its clinical trial done in partnership with Oxford was found to be 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus.
November 20, 2020
Mystery Theater Set to Begin
Will the reopening trade win out or will it be the shutdown trade? Will there be hope in fiscal stimulus plans or will there be despair? Will there be optimism about COVID vaccines or will there be pessimism about the explosion of coronavirus cases?
November 18, 2020
Fighting Headwind of Going Up-Up So Far, So Fast
There is a lot of good news out this morning, yet the futures trade from our vantage point is the equivalent of one hand clapping.
November 16, 2020
Moderna Vaccine News Helping to Make Things Go Right
Something else going right is the direction of the broader market. The S&P 500 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 434 points and are trading 1.5% above fair value.
November 13, 2020
Back In A Good Place for Now
Let your mind wander to a place where there is no pandemic, no contested election, and no squabbling over a fiscal stimulus plan. It’s a pretty good place, right?
November 11, 2020
The Future Is Right Now
There is a lot of bad news right now with respect to the coronavirus. The stock market right now, though, isn’t bothered by any of it.
November 9, 2020
Market Sprints Toward Vaccine Light at End of Tunnel
The broader market is set to fly at the start of today’s trading in an understandable relief rally tied to the news from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) that their COVID vaccine candidate proved more than 90% effective in clinical trials for participants without evidence of prior infection.
November 5, 2020
A Split Decision for Stock Market
Last week, the S&P 500 declined 5.6%. It took less than three, full sessions this week to recoup that loss and then some. To be fair, some late selling yesterday left the S&P 500 up “only” 5.3% for the week at yesterday’s close.
November 4, 2020
Election Waiting Game Still Being Played
First things first: the winner of the presidential election is still unknown. Secondly, the futures market is displaying large gains this morning, particularly the Nasdaq 100 futures, and the Treasury market is displaying large gains as well, particularly longer-dated securities.
November 3, 2020
New Political Facts on the Horizon
Election Day is here. Whether the election result arrives on Election Night is what everyone is wondering. That point notwithstanding, the futures market doesn’t appear to be suffering from any bouts of uncertainty.
October 28, 2020
Growth Concerns Bubbling to Price Action Surface (Again)
The stock market is going to open sharply lower and the headline catalysts for the weakness are ripe for the picking.
October 22, 2020
The Stimulus Beat Goes on In Tired Fashion
The stock market seems to have grown tired of the politicking, though, and has grown restless at the thought of having to play the waiting game, which could conceivably stretch into the first quarter pending the election results.
October 20, 2020
Market on Its Toes Looking For Stimulus Deal News
On October 20, 2020 the futures market is trying to act as if it is happy to hear that the talks are continuing and that the differences are narrowing.
October 14, 2020
Lacking Much of a Bias
Dow components Goldman Sachs (GS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) tried to help. Both beat consensus earnings expectations (Goldman beat by a mile) and both stocks are trading higher. GS is up 2.2% and UNH is up 0.7%.
October 12, 2020
No Stimulus Pushes Growth Stock Trade
Over the weekend, the White House made a $1.8 trillion stimulus package proposal. Notably, it was rejected by House Democrats and Senate Republicans, albeit for different reasons.
October 8, 2020
Feeling Good For a Number of Reasons
The futures market is throwing off a good indication this morning that suggests the major indices will resume their advance at the opening bell.
October 6, 2020
Stocks and Bonds on the Move Together
The futures market wasn’t looking so great in the overnight trade, but once again it has been able to find its way to higher levels heading to the open on Wall Street.
October 5, 2020
Going With the Flow
There is an improved tone in global equity markets coming off Friday’s retreat, which was sparked by reports that President Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus.
September 28, 2020
Cue the Momentum Trade
A good finish to last week is carrying over to the new week, as the futures for the major indices are decidedly positive in the early going.
September 24, 2020
In a Macro-Psychological Funk
The stock market had a rough day on Wednesday and it doesn’t appear ready to snap back just yet. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.
September 22, 2020
Holding the Line
There were various life stages to yesterday’s trading that included bad, very bad, and good. The bad and very bad came early while the good came late as Apple (AAPL) powered back from a 3.5% decline to end the session with a 3.0% gain.
September 16, 2020
Sitting on Rebound Effort, Waiting for Fed News
The equity market continues in rebound mode this morning. The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.
September 14, 2020
Finding Support in Deal News and Other Matters
There is a positive bias in the futures market this morning and M&A activity has a lot to do with it. COVID vaccine optimism will get some credit, but from our vantage point, that’s a tertiary factor behind the buyout announcements and the expected buy-in following last week’s losses.
September 9, 2020
The Answer Is in the Price Action
It’s fair to call the stock market a crazy market. A week ago, it was under the microscope for being overbought and due for a pullback. Today, it is under the microscope for being oversold and due for a bounce.
September 8, 2020
Price Momentum Cutting the Other Way
The return from the Labor Day weekend isn’t going to be a smooth one for the stock market. Equity index futures make that pretty clear.
September 3, 2020
Weakness Borne Out of the Strength
You’ve got a futures market this morning that is presaging a negative start for the major indices, more so for the Nasdaq 100 than the Dow and S&P 500 but they’re all headed lower.
August 27, 2020
Waiting on Powell Speech
There have been three trading sessions so far this week. The Nasdaq Composite is up 3.1% and the S&P 500 is up 2.4% (mostly because of the contribution from Nasdaq-listed stocks). That’s a good showing by any measure for index investors.
August 26, 2020
A Day of Trading Forensics
The futures market isn’t doing much this morning, not that that means much of anything. There have been days when the futures were much lower and the cash market still ended higher.
August 24, 2020
Bulls Are Back and Ready to Run At the Open
Currently, the S&P futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 128 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value.
