March 2, 2021
Feeling A Little Sheepish — But Only A Little
It will be interesting to see if yesterday was the high watermark for the week for the major indices. It’s possible given how strong the gains were.
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February 26, 2021
Keep A Close Watch on Interest Rates
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 116 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 29 points and are trading slightly below fair value.
February 22, 2021
Rising Rates Drawing Some Nervous Attention
There is a slate of M&A activity; there are reports that the House is expected to pass the $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal by the end of the week; Dr. Fauci said he thinks the U.S. will see a significant degree of normality by the end of 2021; the press is highlighting the growing potential for a really strong economic recovery this year; and Deutsche Bank has upgraded the airlines.
February 19, 2021
Down to The Wire
It will come down to the wire today to determine if the S&P 500 has a winning week or a losing week. Over the last three trading sessions, the S&P 500 has declined 0.5%. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.
February 17, 2021
Big Economic Data Not Greeted with Big Reaction One Might Expect
The capital markets were busy yesterday reacting to rising long-term rates and reports of debilitating power outages in Texas and other locales due to freezing temperatures.
February 16, 2021
Futures and Yields Rising Together
U.S. equity index futures are extending last week’s record-setting gains in a continuation of the bullish momentum, aided by a risk-on signal in the Treasury market.
February 10, 2021
Ready to Rebound as Bullish Bias Permeates Market
Positive responses to the earnings reports from Lyft (LYFT), Twitter (TWTR), and Coca-Cola (KO) have offset some downcast responses to the earnings reports and guidance from Cisco (CSCO), General Motors (GM), and Akamai Technologies (AKAM).
February 5, 2021
Scars of Pandemic Reflected In January Employment Report
It is said that “the trend is your friend,” and if this week so far is any indication, the trend has been the stock market’s best friend. There have been four trading sessions and the S&P 500 is up 4.2% for the week. The S&P 500 is also at a new record high, as are the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000.
February 4, 2021
The Market Is Back to Its Old Self
Three days down so far for the week and it has been three up days so far for the stock market, which has that invincible feel about it again.
February 3, 2021
Alphabet and Amazon.Com Come Through, As Expected
Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon.com (AMZN) crushed it with their latest earnings results. Those stocks are indicated 6.7% and 1.8% higher, respectively. They should be higher, but what might surprise some readers is that the market isn’t indicated sharply higher.
February 1, 2021
Still Stuck on GameStop
Stories about the GameStop trade are on the front page of The Wall Street Journal, at the top of the page on CNBC.com, in the Most Read section on Bloomberg.com, and appear in the featured news section on Yahoo! Finance.
January 29, 2021
What A Mess
The market is a mess. Sometimes, it’s a beautiful mess. This time, it’s just a mess. This characterization doesn’t even have so much to do with the standing of the futures market as it does with the tonality of market conditions.
January 27, 2021
Market Arrested by Short-Squeeze Mania
AMC is up 277% because it is the new chosen one of the short-squeeze mafia. What about GameStop (GME), you ask? Eh, it is up only 70% from yesterday’s close to $247.00.
January 20, 2021
Inauguration Day Is A New Trading Day with Similar Elements
There is a bid in the futures market this morning. That’s nothing new, as it seems like there is a bid in the futures market most mornings.
January 15, 2021
Recovery Trade Takes A Break
There was a time when the behavior of the market was characterized as risk on or risk off. These days, the characterization is more like recovery trade on or recovery trade off. It’s a subtle, but important, nuance.
January 13, 2021
Not Feeling the Burn Yet
The story this morning isn’t so much that it is going to be a bad day all around as it is that it will be a soft start all around. That’s the impression one gets looking at the futures market.
January 12, 2021
Still Playing with Air of Resilience
The major indices finished lower on Monday, yet the market didn’t make much of it, as the move was largely attributed to some overdue selling interest.
January 11, 2021
Letting Out Some Air
The U.S. equity market is slated to start today’s session on a negative note. That’s largely because last week struck such a good note for the bulls, notwithstanding everything else that was happening outside the stock market.
January 6, 2021
Down Goes the Nasdaq, but Up Goes the Russell 2000
It’s a mixed picture following news that Democrats are on pace to win majority control of the Senate. The benchmark S&P 500 futures trade 19 points, or 0.5%, below fair value.
December 29, 2020
Life in The Bubble
The U.S. stock market isn’t glutton for punishment. On the contrary, it continues to embrace the gluttony of further gains, largely irrespective of anything negative that might be happening outside its Covid bubble.
December 15, 2020
Cash Market Given Do-Over Opportunity
There is some futures trading deja vu this morning, as the futures for the major indices are trading solidly higher. If there is a deja vu experience for the cash market, though, then what we see now won’t look nearly as good by the end of the day.
December 14, 2020
Pfizer Vaccine Authorization Helps Wake Up the Trading Echoes
The futures for the major indices are sporting some sizable gains this morning based on news that everyone expected to hear. That news is that the FDA approved the Covid vaccine from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) for emergency use authorization in patients 16 years or older.
December 11, 2020
In Foul Territory Following Some Dotcom-Esque Action
The recognition of dotcom-esque trading action is, in our humble opinion, the main basis for why the futures market is in foul territory this morning. In some respects, it should be in the field of bullish play.
December 8, 2020
Taking a Timeout
Currently, the S&P futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 94 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.
December 7, 2020
Chase Rabbit Still on the Rail
Today, a case can be made that the direction of the cash market at Friday’s closing bell is the key for understanding the softness in the futures market this morning.
December 3, 2020
No “Oomph,” But No “Ugh” Either
The big selloff that is reportedly lurking out there because bullish sentiment is so high still appears to be on the outside looking in. There has been no quit by the market.
December 2, 2020
Hairline Fracture in the Price Action
There has been a break in the buying action. What remains to be seen is if it will lead to a break in the market or whether it’s just a break before another leg higher.
November 30, 2020
Headed For a Mixed Start
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 137 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.
November 24, 2020
Ongoing Belief in Good Outcomes
We’re not sure the stock market needed another excuse to rally in this holiday-shortened week, but it has one and it is going to rally at the start of today’s trading.
November 23, 2020
Another Vaccine Monday
AstraZeneca (AZN) said one of the dosing regimens in its clinical trial done in partnership with Oxford was found to be 90% effective in preventing the coronavirus.
