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July 13, 2020

New Week to Begin on Same Story Line

Following on the heels of Friday’s large gains for the cash market, the S&P futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 99 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 182 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value.

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July 10, 2020

Gilead Saves the Day – Or At Least the Open

From the look of things, the stock market is going to start today’s session on a mixed note, which is much improved fro where it was only an hour ago. An hour ago, everything as poised to start on a lower note.

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July 7, 2020

A Depreciation Factor at Work Following the Appreciation

In the last five trading sessions, the S&P 500 has increased 5.7%, the Nasdaq Composite has increased 6.9%, (AMZN) has increased 13.5%, and Tesla (TSLA) has increased, uh, 42.9%. Those are some specific references to a stock market that is overbought on a short-term basis and due for a period of consolidation.

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July 1, 2020

A Fickle Futures Market Reacts to Econ and Vaccine News

We have come to loathe the effort to divine what the futures market is thinking ahead of the open. The reason being is that we try to assign macro meaning to a micro indication that is as fickle as they come. In other words, it becomes an exercise in over-analysis.

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June 30, 2020

Indeterminate Feel Before the Open

It has been a terrific quarter of returns alright. Entering today, the Nasdaq is up 28.2%, the Russell 2000 is up 23.3%, the S&P Midcap 400 is up 21.9%, the S&P 500 is up 18.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.8%.

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June 24, 2020

A Review for The Preview

This morning’s missive must begin with a few matters of review. The Nasdaq Composite has gone up in each of the last eight trading sessions, gaining 6.7% in the process. The S&P 500 has gone up in six of the last eight trading sessions, gaining 4.3% in the process.

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June 22, 2020

A Guessing Game

The futures for the major indices are up nicely this morning. The only thing is that they are little changed relative to fair value, which means there won’t be much movement in the major indices when the opening bell rings.

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June 18, 2020

An Overcast Morning

There is a cloud hanging over the stock market at the moment. It might be a rain cloud, as there are various shades of grey in it, or it might just be a cloud that passes by innocuously. It’s hard to tell with this market, which likes to look for the sunshine through the clouds.

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June 11, 2020

It Was Bound To Happen

It was bound to happen. The “it” we are referring to is a notable pullback in the stock market, which saw the S&P 500 gain as much as 48% from its March 23 low, the Nasdaq 100 gain as much as 50%, and the Russell 2000 gain as much as 59%.

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June 8, 2020

Stock Market Holding the Keys

It’s kind of a quiet morning from a headline perspective, but the stock market is still making some celebratory noise on the other side of the May employment report. The party-like atmosphere continues to favor cyclical stocks, value stocks, and stocks in general that seem to have the most to gain from reopening/recovery activity.

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June 3, 2020

Not a Care in the World

At the current pace, it won’t be long before the S&P 500 is trading at a new all-time high. It’s only 10% below the prior all-time high now, and it has risen 11.4% from the intraday low on May 14 to yesterday’s close — a span of just 13 trading sessions.

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June 1, 2020

A Mixed-Up Feeling

The stock market has a relatively mixed disposition this morning. Currently, the S&P futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 42 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

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May 19, 2020

Taking a Breather in Front of Powell, Mnuchin Testimony

The S&P 500 futures trade four points, or 0.2%, below fair value in a quiet session following yesterday’s broad-based rally. In about an hour, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on the government’s response to the coronavirus.

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May 12, 2020

More Churning Than Burning

Yesterday was one of those days where a market that looked reasonably good on the surface wasn’t so great below the surface. More stocks declined than advanced, yet the biggest stocks were among the minority of advancers and that made the difference.

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May 6, 2020

Later Matters More Than Lately

The finish to yesterday’s session was marred by a wave of selling interest. Some repair work was done overnight in the futures market, however. At one juncture, the S&P 500 futures were up 27 points and trading 0.9% above fair value. They are currently up 14 points and trading 0.4% above fair value.

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May 4, 2020

Bears With First Mover Advantage

Three of the last four trading sessions have ended with a loss for the S&P 500. We’re not sure how today will end, but we have a good sense that the open is going to invite more losses.

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April 28, 2020

Reopening Momentum Continues To Feed Bullish Bias

We made the point yesterday that the valuation at which the stock market was trading was ridiculous in light of everything going on around it. Of course, all the stock market did yesterday was make us look ridiculous for suggesting as much. The S&P 500 advanced 1.5%, paced by gains in all 11 sectors.

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April 23, 2020

A Good News, Bad News Mix

The early morning action featured a lot of news but not a lot of conviction. The futures for the major indices were little changed and trading close to fair value, which was perhaps the news of the morning.

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April 21, 2020

Bullish Sentiment Sliding Away With Oil Futures

For what it’s worth, WTI crude futures for May delivery (the contract that expires today) are up 88% to -$4.50. There’s no joy in that indication, however, except for the minority of traders still holding the contract and realizing they are in a less worse situation than they were yesterday when the contract settled at -$37.63.

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April 15, 2020

A More Sobering View of Matters

Some negativity has been borne out of yesterday’s positivity, which seemed somewhat misplaced in light of the cautious-sounding commentary from JPM and WFC, which was backed up by the large provisions for credit losses they took in the first quarter.

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April 13, 2020

Conflicting Narratives

The futures market was subdued overnight, but it has been perking up with the U.S. open drawing closer. At one point, the S&P futures were down 55 points. They are currently down just seven points, which leaves them 0.3% below fair value.

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April 7, 2020

Powered by Sentiment

The hope that powered the stock market on Monday has persisted today. The S&P futures are trading 2.9% above fair value.

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March 30, 2020

Seeing Some Hopeful News amid the Bad

The S&P futures are up 31 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 102 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 230 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value.

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March 25, 2020

Wait-and-See Vibe Hangs Over the Market

The $2 trillion fiscal stimulus deal that had the stock market fired up on Tuesday in a way that it hasn’t been fired up since 1933 has been struck. That word came from Capitol Hill in the wee hours of the morning, but thus far, the fire seen in yesterday’s buyers hasn’t kept burning.

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