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September 24, 2020

In a Macro-Psychological Funk

The stock market had a rough day on Wednesday and it doesn’t appear ready to snap back just yet. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.

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September 22, 2020

Holding the Line

There were various life stages to yesterday’s trading that included bad, very bad, and good. The bad and very bad came early while the good came late as Apple (AAPL) powered back from a 3.5% decline to end the session with a 3.0% gain.

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September 14, 2020

Finding Support in Deal News and Other Matters

There is a positive bias in the futures market this morning and M&A activity has a lot to do with it. COVID vaccine optimism will get some credit, but from our vantage point, that’s a tertiary factor behind the buyout announcements and the expected buy-in following last week’s losses.

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September 9, 2020

The Answer Is in the Price Action

It’s fair to call the stock market a crazy market. A week ago, it was under the microscope for being overbought and due for a pullback. Today, it is under the microscope for being oversold and due for a bounce.

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September 3, 2020

Weakness Borne Out of the Strength

You’ve got a futures market this morning that is presaging a negative start for the major indices, more so for the Nasdaq 100 than the Dow and S&P 500 but they’re all headed lower.

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August 27, 2020

Waiting on Powell Speech

There have been three trading sessions so far this week. The Nasdaq Composite is up 3.1% and the S&P 500 is up 2.4% (mostly because of the contribution from Nasdaq-listed stocks). That’s a good showing by any measure for index investors.

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August 26, 2020

A Day of Trading Forensics

The futures market isn’t doing much this morning, not that that means much of anything. There have been days when the futures were much lower and the cash market still ended higher.

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August 19, 2020

The Stock Market’s Repair Work Is Done

The repair work after the COVID crash is complete — for the stock market anyway. The economy itself is a much different matter. There is a lot of repair work still left to be done there.

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August 17, 2020

Everyone Waiting on a Big Move

A new all-time high for the S&P 500 proved elusive last week, but that doesn’t mean market participants won’t give it another go this week.

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August 14, 2020

Muted Start Ahead

The S&P 500 futures trade three points, or 0.1%, below fair value amid a lack of conviction from buyers and sellers. The benchmark index enters the session up 0.7% this week and has flirted with a closing record high for two straight days.

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August 12, 2020

A Positive Reversal

The S&P 500 futures have reversed yesterday’s downside reversal and trade 27 points, or 0.8%, above fair value in a presumptive buy-the-dip trade.

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August 11, 2020

Vying For Eight Straight in Reopening Momentum

The S&P 500 futures trade 16 points, or 0.5%, above fair value amid a positive momentum that has carried the S&P 500 and Dow to seven straight days of gains. The Nasdaq 100 futures, however, are trading 0.5% below fair value.

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August 10, 2020

Muted Start to the Week

The S&P 500 futures trade five points, or 0.1%, above fair value ahead of the opening bell following a six-session winning streak for the benchmark index. The market is trading near its best levels of the muted pre-market session.

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August 4, 2020

Growth Issues

Your eyes don’t deceive you. The major indices are indicated lower, as are the big five: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Facebook (FB).

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August 3, 2020

S&P 5 Point To Higher Open

Let’s forget about the S&P 500 futures for a minute and let’s talk about the S&P 5 futures. They’re up again and pointing to a positive start for the market.

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July 30, 2020

Trepidation Ahead of the Close

the Q2 GDP data out of Germany and the U.S. Granted this is dated information, but the stunning 10.1% quarter-over-quarter decline in Germany’s GDP and the 32.9% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate of decline in U.S. GDP ( consensus -35.0%) are just that — stunning.

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July 28, 2020

Distractions All Around

The major indices started the week on the right foot, registering gains primarily on the back of renewed strength in the mega-cap stocks. Today, however, they look ready to stumble at the open.

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July 20, 2020

Big Issues Hanging In the Balance

You can take your pick of news drivers this morning. Some are positive and some are negative. Fittingly, there is a mixed tone in the futures trade. There are the negotiations taking place in Congress regarding the provisions of the next coronavirus relief bill and there are reports that Democrats and Republicans are still far apart with their respective plans.

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July 15, 2020

Market Favoring Vaccine Narrative

The reopening of the stock market today is going to be imbued with a reopening trade, as participants will be rallying around Moderna’s (MRNA) positive-sounding (and familiar-sounding) news about Phase 1 trial data for its COVID vaccine candidate, as well as better-than-expected earnings news from Goldman Sachs (GS).

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July 13, 2020

New Week to Begin on Same Story Line

Following on the heels of Friday’s large gains for the cash market, the S&P futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 99 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 182 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value.

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July 10, 2020

Gilead Saves the Day – Or At Least the Open

From the look of things, the stock market is going to start today’s session on a mixed note, which is much improved fro where it was only an hour ago. An hour ago, everything as poised to start on a lower note.

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July 7, 2020

A Depreciation Factor at Work Following the Appreciation

In the last five trading sessions, the S&P 500 has increased 5.7%, the Nasdaq Composite has increased 6.9%, (AMZN) has increased 13.5%, and Tesla (TSLA) has increased, uh, 42.9%. Those are some specific references to a stock market that is overbought on a short-term basis and due for a period of consolidation.

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July 1, 2020

A Fickle Futures Market Reacts to Econ and Vaccine News

We have come to loathe the effort to divine what the futures market is thinking ahead of the open. The reason being is that we try to assign macro meaning to a micro indication that is as fickle as they come. In other words, it becomes an exercise in over-analysis.

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June 30, 2020

Indeterminate Feel Before the Open

It has been a terrific quarter of returns alright. Entering today, the Nasdaq is up 28.2%, the Russell 2000 is up 23.3%, the S&P Midcap 400 is up 21.9%, the S&P 500 is up 18.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.8%.

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June 24, 2020

A Review for The Preview

This morning’s missive must begin with a few matters of review. The Nasdaq Composite has gone up in each of the last eight trading sessions, gaining 6.7% in the process. The S&P 500 has gone up in six of the last eight trading sessions, gaining 4.3% in the process.

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June 22, 2020

A Guessing Game

The futures for the major indices are up nicely this morning. The only thing is that they are little changed relative to fair value, which means there won’t be much movement in the major indices when the opening bell rings.

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