Bullseye publishes three new, actionable stock ideas every two weeks. On the off-weeks there’s a Sunday night Roadmap for the Week Ahead and Wednesday podcast. Founder & Author Adam Johnson traded equities and oil for 20 years at Merrill Lynch, Louis Dreyfus and ING. He also anchored two shows daily at Bloomberg Television during the financial crisis.
January has a way of jolting us from our holiday slumber, but I’ve never seen a start to the year like this… oil and gold jump 10%… the pound hits a 2-yr high… the DJIA moves nearly 300 points every day… and NYSE Biotech Index soars 7%. I think investors who sat in cash for much of 2019 are desperately trying to get back in, and their indiscriminate buying is creating significant volatility.
Trader Talk: Week of September 30, 2019
You can understand why speculators have pivoted to being net short for only the fourth time since 2016, according to weekly CFTC data. The barrage of commentary around recession and impeachment is enough to drive anyone to cash, not to mention campaign promises like eliminating private healthcare and ditching fossil fuels.
“Race to the Bottom”: Week of August 12, 2019
Three countries lowered interest rates last week in response to China’s decision to let the yuan fall below seven to the dollar (India, Thailand, and New Zealand). Lower interest rates generally coincide with weaker exchange rates… creating an export advantage for the country with the lowest FX… and since no one want to see competing Chinese products get even cheaper, they are outdoing one another with rate cuts.
This week I stopped out three losing positions in companies I really like, and it was hard… kinda like breaking up. True, ego is inevitably part of the equation and I hate being wrong, but in this case all three stocks were trading at single digit P/Es, and I really hate walking away from low valuation. The problem is that cheap stocks can always get cheaper… the classic value trap… as opposed to catalyst-driven companies with runway for growth. I love finding businesses changing how we operate, interact and evolve. As a firm believer in the transformative impact of American Ingenuity, this is where I’m concentrating my firepower. I hope the next three stocks I sell are great growth picks accelerating through price targets. Selling a winner isn’t a break-up, it’s a Graduation.
Tell Me More – With Technical Strategist Chris Verrone
Tell Me More – Chris is a technical strategist for fundamental investors. He’s extremely adept at spotting out-of-consensus trades, as well as current trends with long-term staying power. I read his work daily.
Bullseye’s Trader Talk
The pendulum of positivity is swinging HARD to the right. Five of my fifty longs have hit their targets within a week, and two more are fast approaching their respective upside limits as well. It’s the polar opposite of what we saw in December, when the pendulum of negativity swung disturbingly to the left. Back then I bought in the hole, and those nerve-racking purchases have paid off handsomely. So by definition, as the market rebounds exuberantly to new highs, now I must sell. While I’d prefer to own quality growth companies for the long haul, pendulums swing only so far before gravity inevitably brings them back to center. Put another way, I believe in taking profits on specific positions when their targets are reached. I own over forty additional names which offer plenty of upside, and I uncover new companies to buy every two weeks. This dynamic process of rotation within the portfolio reminds me of a song from third grade music class… Make new friends but keep the old. Some are silver and the others gold.