March 31, 2020
Members of Invesco’s Global Market Strategy (GMS) team in Hong Kong, Italy, London, Tokyo and New York shared their on-the-ground insights of the fight against coronavirus from a health care, monetary, and fiscal perspective.
March 24, 2020
March 17, 2020
Weekly Market Compass: Health care, monetary, and fiscal policy will all play critical roles in combating this crisis
March 10, 2020
Concern among market participants over the ongoing outbreak of the COVID-19 virus appears to have spread from simply a short-term reduction in demand for petroleum products within certain Chinese provinces to a broader, though still short-term, impact beyond hydrocarbon consumption.
March 3, 2020
We have seen a rapid and dramatic market correction as a result of the news flow around the COVID-19 outbreak. This appears to be an overreaction, in my view — but I would not be surprised to see the sell-off continue as uncertainty remains high on key issues: ease of transmission, length of time a person can be infected and contagious without showing symptoms, mortality rates, and length of time before the infection rate stabilizes globally.
February 25, 2020
Weekly Market Compass: Flash PMIs for a variety of countries are showing a coronavirus-related deterioration. Last week both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hit all-time highs mid-week before falling significantly at the end of the week on fears about the novel coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) impacting economic growth.
February 18, 2020
February 11, 2020
February 4, 2020
Over the course of less than two weeks, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell from over 1.8% to 1.51%, and the yield on the 10-year German bund dropped from -0.22% to -0.44%. This week, I see the potential for continued market volatility, both to the upside and the downside. Here are three key issues I’m watching…
January 28, 2020
The outbreak of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, and in pockets around the world has garnered significant public concern, and the global financial market is on edge. We have received numerous questions about the potential impact to investors and how the economic effects of the coronavirus might compare to past outbreaks such as the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003.
January 21, 2020
Private equity continues to buy midstream and the Energy Transfer acquisition of SemGroup closes. The master limited partnership (MLP) sector saw a series of acquisitions take place in December, from Blackstone reaching an agreement with Tallgrass Energy to Energy Transfer closing on the SemGroup acquisition.
January 14, 2020
We believe China is ground zero for the future of retail and the West will learn from and adapt the experiments that are already moving to scale in the East. Consider Alibaba, the Chinese Internet giant whose wide-ranging businesses span e-commerce, offline retail, fintech, online video, maps and browsers, and artificial intelligence.
January 7, 2020
The conflict in the Middle East could pressure business sentiment. 2019 was a great year for markets, and equities delivered strong returns for the year. US stocks led the way at 29.07%, Chinese stocks returned 20.94%, European stocks returned 20.03%, and emerging markets delivered 15.42%.
December 23, 2019
Weekly Market Compass: As the WTO reaches a crisis point, countries may take trade issues into their own hands. By way of background, when the WTO was created more than 20 years ago, the US was given veto power over appointments to its seven-member appeals panel.
December 18, 2019
December 17, 2019
Two developments last week suggest that we have entered a period of improved economic policy certainty. Both the UK election and the US-China Phase 1 trade deal promise to bring far more clarity for businesses as they plan for 2020 and beyond.
December 3, 2019
As we look ahead to 2020, it’s clear that central banks are still shouldering the burden for stimulating the economy via monetary policy. That should bode well for 2020, in our view. However, we believe such monetary easing should be more positively impactful for asset prices than the overall economy. Economic uncertainty is likely to continue to depress capital spending, in our view, and we must watch vigilantly to ensure it doesn’t spill over into diminished hiring plans.
November 26, 2019
Last week brought a number of key developments from central banks around the world, from the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest meeting minutes, to a reaffirmation of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy, to the first speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
November 19, 2019
Recent market events look a lot like the mid-90s when the Fed stopped tightening and the cycle found new life. To make it simple, I’ll state my conclusion upfront. My outlook for 2020, or at least the first half of 2020, is quite sanguine.
November 12, 2019
November 5, 2019
Last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting proceeded largely as expected, but a very important development for stocks occurred during the follow-up press conference. As expected, the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points. Additionally, in its announcement, the Fed removed the language that stated it would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
October 29, 2019
After a positive week for stocks, markets brace for news on the Fed’s outlook, US-China trade negotiations, and the eurozone and Chinese economies. Last week was a “risk on” week for the markets, with stocks rising.
October 22, 2019
After all, some of the biggest stock market crashes have occurred in October, such as the Panic of 1907, the 1929 crash, and the 1987 crash. We even witnessed a significant stock market sell-off last October. However, if we were to look at the overall statistics, we would see that October has not historically been the worst month for stock market performance. In fact, there is even a name for this behavioral finance phenomenon — “the October effect.”
October 15, 2019
October 8, 2019
Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball is famous for statistical analysis, and there are seemingly endless ways to evaluate every player. Similarly, there are many ways to evaluate stocks, and different portfolio managers assemble their “teams” using a variety of methods. To understand the differences, consider the ways that coaches can choose players for a baseball team.
October 1, 2019
One of the key themes I have been discussing in the last several years is geopolitical disruption — and we got a heavy dose of it last week. However, one of my main points over the past few years is that investors should try to identify the geopolitical disruption that really matters for the economy and markets, and ignore the events that are just background noise (most fall into this category, in my view).
September 24, 2019
Another very surprising but ultimately anticlimactic chain of events occurred over the last week. There was a serious drone strike on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend of Sept. 14 and 15, knocking out two key installations and dramatically curtailing oil production. Not surprisingly, there was a major shock to the price of oil on Monday, Sept. 16, with crude oil rising more than $10 per barrel in price.1
September 17, 2019
Here’s the reality, parents: While organized sports offer a great way for your child to learn valuable life lessons and develop their skills, they’re far from a scholarship guarantee. To truly set your child up for success, you have to start saving for college as soon as possible — and I believe a 529 plan can help.
September 13, 2019
The yield curve has been a constant topic of conversation among investors since mid-August, when the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve briefly inverted and launched furious speculation that a recession may be around the corner. The same holds true among Invesco’s market strategists, who have been debating what an inverted yield curve means and whether a recession is indeed inevitable.
