Invesco US Archives - Traders' Insight

August 13, 2019

You Can’t Train A Great White Shark – Or Control Global Trade

In my view, the US has exhibited these two forms of overconfidence bias in its current trade situation. First, the desirability effect: In my travels, it has been clear that the vast majority of Americans I’ve spoken with believe it would be desirable to have more favorable trading conditions, which helps to explain why the Trump administration has been so focused on strong-arming other nations, especially China, into better trade agreements.

August 6, 2019

Measure Twice, Cut Once: Fed Delivers Expected Cut

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% for the first time in over a decade,1 a move largely expected by the market. Heading into the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, much of the debate was around whether or not the Fed would deliver 25 or 50 basis points. However, we were focused on the statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for further insight on future policy.

August 1, 2019

Financial Markets Aren’t Woolly Mammoths: Running From Fear Can Be Counterproductive

Remember the widespread concern about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy response to the financial crisis? A decade ago, investors worried that the Fed’s policy, which was designed to combat deep-rooted deflationary impulses, was going to be “massively inflationary,” thereby leading to a spike in US interest rates and depressed equity valuations.

July 30, 2019

This Week The Fed Will Remind Us That It’s The World’s Central Bank

The IMF revised global growth for 2019 down to 3.2% from 3.3% in April, which continues a series of downward revisions to growth. Of note is that the IMF substantially downgraded its estimate of world trade growth to just 2.5% this year, which is a downgrade of nearly a point since April’s outlook.

July 23, 2019

Senate Hearing Focuses On Retirement Challenges

On May 14, 2019, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing titled “Challenges in the Retirement System.” The hearing focused on a variety of issues relating to retirement security, such as increasing workplace retirement plan coverage and participation and increasing participant savings.

July 16, 2019

Waiting For A Rate Cut: How Much Is Too Much?

There is a famous Rolling Stones song that provides sage advice for demanding toddlers and spoiled teenagers — and perhaps financial markets: “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, well you might find, you get what you need.” That refrain is stuck in my head as I anticipate this month’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

July 9, 2019

ECB Worries Have Receded, But Fed Policy Doubts Have Some Pundits On The Defensive

One major risk that I have worried about for a year now was the potential for the next European Central Bank (ECB) president to be a monetary policy hawk. I felt that would create a significant headwind for European markets, given that current ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovishness had driven down systemic stress during his tenure.

July 2, 2019

The US Cycle Breaks A Record. So Now What?

June 25, 2019

What Do You Want Most From Your Portfolio?

June 18, 2019

Will the Fed Lose Its Patience This Week?

All eyes will be on this week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting — especially the statement (whether the central bank will retain its “patient” stance) and the “dot plot” (which charts the outlook for interest rates). The June 18-19 Fed meeting is very important because market expectations have gotten so dovish recently.

June 12, 2019

Central Banks Provide A Silver Lining To The Escalating Trade War

A collective sigh of relief was expelled on Friday evening as US President Donald Trump announced he would indefinitely suspend the planned imposition of tariffs on Mexico — which was set to go into effect on June 10.

June 4, 2019

The Month Of May Was A ‘Game-Changer’ For Markets

It’s the beginning of June, and I haven’t been this happy to welcome a new month in a very long time. I suspect many investors and market watchers have that same feeling. May was brutal for markets — but it was more than just that. The month of May was, in my opinion, a game-changer.

May 28, 2019

Small-Cap Stocks: Why Patience Matters

The payment sector has been the darling of Wall Street the last few years and has continued to be an active space with several mega-mergers. Only four months into 2019, the payment sector already reached $85 billion of merger and acquisition announcements — almost doubling the full-year record of $49 billion in 2018.1 I expect the trend to continue.

May 21, 2019

Global Markets: Five Events To Watch This Week

Weekly Market Compass: Tracking elections in Europe and India, and several reports in the US. It seems that so much happens in a given week these days. However, this week could be particularly momentous as we start to get answers on some key questions that have implications for global markets. Here are five events to watch…

May 14, 2019

How Is The Fed Changing Its Approach To Inflation?

May 7, 2019

US-China Trade Talks Stumble, And Stocks Tumble

US-China trade talks have taken a turn for the worse in the last several days and may temporarily go off the rails. It all started when President Trump threatened to increase the level of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% by May 10, asserting that China is taking too long in the negotiations and is attempting to “renegotiate.” He also threatened to place 25% tariffs on additional goods. Now China, in response, has threatened to cancel trade negotiations planned for this week between the US and China.

April 30, 2019

Witnesses At House Hearing Say SEC’s Regulation Best Interest Needs To Be Improved

Witnesses at a March 14 hearing held by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship, and Capital Markets called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to strengthen its investment advice reform proposal.Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY, chairwoman of the subcommittee, said in her opening statement that the SEC’s Regulation Best Interest (BI), which is designed to raise broker conduct above the current suitability standard, falls short of needed investor protections.

April 23, 2019