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Invesco US

October 8, 2019

Three Ways Investing Is Like Baseball

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball is famous for statistical analysis, and there are seemingly endless ways to evaluate every player. Similarly, there are many ways to evaluate stocks, and different portfolio managers assemble their “teams” using a variety of methods. To understand the differences, consider the ways that coaches can choose players for a baseball team.

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Invesco US

October 1, 2019

News Versus Noise: Assessing The Market Impact Of Three Major Headlines

One of the key themes I have been discussing in the last several years is geopolitical disruption — and we got a heavy dose of it last week. However, one of my main points over the past few years is that investors should try to identify the geopolitical disruption that really matters for the economy and markets, and ignore the events that are just background noise (most fall into this category, in my view).

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Invesco US

September 24, 2019

Markets Shake Off A Series Of Unusual Events

Another very surprising but ultimately anticlimactic chain of events occurred over the last week. There was a serious drone strike on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend of Sept. 14 and 15, knocking out two key installations and dramatically curtailing oil production. Not surprisingly, there was a major shock to the price of oil on Monday, Sept. 16, with crude oil rising more than $10 per barrel in price.1

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Invesco US

September 17, 2019

When It Comes To College, Think ‘Savings’ Over ‘Scholarships’

Here’s the reality, parents: While organized sports offer a great way for your child to learn valuable life lessons and develop their skills, they’re far from a scholarship guarantee. To truly set your child up for success, you have to start saving for college as soon as possible — and I believe a 529 plan can help.

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Invesco US

September 13, 2019

Is A Recession Inevitable?

The yield curve has been a constant topic of conversation among investors since mid-August, when the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve briefly inverted and launched furious speculation that a recession may be around the corner. The same holds true among Invesco’s market strategists, who have been debating what an inverted yield curve means and whether a recession is indeed inevitable.

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Invesco US

September 3, 2019

It’s Time To Trade In Uncertainty For Stability

As we embarked on this year, I expected 2019 to be the year of slower growth but better policy. And that, I posited, would be better for financial markets than 2018’s combination of strong growth and bad policy, specifically Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and trade tariffs.

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Invesco US

August 20, 2019

Beyond The Yield Curve: Other Economic Indicators To Watch

Last week, the US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury rate, briefly inverted. An inverted yield curve is considered to be a good predictor of recession, and so markets sold off on fears that a recession will occur in the next year. However, I believe a US recession is not a foregone conclusion — and so we should monitor the economic data closely.

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Invesco US

August 13, 2019

You Can’t Train A Great White Shark – Or Control Global Trade

In my view, the US has exhibited these two forms of overconfidence bias in its current trade situation. First, the desirability effect: In my travels, it has been clear that the vast majority of Americans I’ve spoken with believe it would be desirable to have more favorable trading conditions, which helps to explain why the Trump administration has been so focused on strong-arming other nations, especially China, into better trade agreements.

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Invesco US

August 6, 2019

Measure Twice, Cut Once: Fed Delivers Expected Cut

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% for the first time in over a decade,1 a move largely expected by the market. Heading into the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, much of the debate was around whether or not the Fed would deliver 25 or 50 basis points. However, we were focused on the statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for further insight on future policy.

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Invesco US

July 23, 2019

Senate Hearing Focuses On Retirement Challenges

On May 14, 2019, the Senate Finance Committee held a hearing titled “Challenges in the Retirement System.” The hearing focused on a variety of issues relating to retirement security, such as increasing workplace retirement plan coverage and participation and increasing participant savings.

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Invesco US

July 16, 2019

Waiting For A Rate Cut: How Much Is Too Much?

There is a famous Rolling Stones song that provides sage advice for demanding toddlers and spoiled teenagers — and perhaps financial markets: “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, well you might find, you get what you need.” That refrain is stuck in my head as I anticipate this month’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

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Invesco US

June 18, 2019

Will the Fed Lose Its Patience This Week?

All eyes will be on this week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting — especially the statement (whether the central bank will retain its “patient” stance) and the “dot plot” (which charts the outlook for interest rates). The June 18-19 Fed meeting is very important because market expectations have gotten so dovish recently.

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Invesco US

June 4, 2019

The Month Of May Was A ‘Game-Changer’ For Markets

It’s the beginning of June, and I haven’t been this happy to welcome a new month in a very long time. I suspect many investors and market watchers have that same feeling. May was brutal for markets — but it was more than just that. The month of May was, in my opinion, a game-changer.

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Invesco US

May 28, 2019

Small-Cap Stocks: Why Patience Matters

The payment sector has been the darling of Wall Street the last few years and has continued to be an active space with several mega-mergers. Only four months into 2019, the payment sector already reached $85 billion of merger and acquisition announcements — almost doubling the full-year record of $49 billion in 2018.1 I expect the trend to continue.

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Invesco US

May 21, 2019

Global Markets: Five Events To Watch This Week

Weekly Market Compass: Tracking elections in Europe and India, and several reports in the US. It seems that so much happens in a given week these days. However, this week could be particularly momentous as we start to get answers on some key questions that have implications for global markets. Here are five events to watch…

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Invesco US

May 7, 2019

US-China Trade Talks Stumble, And Stocks Tumble

US-China trade talks have taken a turn for the worse in the last several days and may temporarily go off the rails. It all started when President Trump threatened to increase the level of tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% by May 10, asserting that China is taking too long in the negotiations and is attempting to “renegotiate.” He also threatened to place 25% tariffs on additional goods. Now China, in response, has threatened to cancel trade negotiations planned for this week between the US and China.

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Invesco US

April 30, 2019

Witnesses At House Hearing Say SEC’s Regulation Best Interest Needs To Be Improved

Witnesses at a March 14 hearing held by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship, and Capital Markets called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to strengthen its investment advice reform proposal.Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY, chairwoman of the subcommittee, said in her opening statement that the SEC’s Regulation Best Interest (BI), which is designed to raise broker conduct above the current suitability standard, falls short of needed investor protections.

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