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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 10, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and inventories, but upward revisions to imports, exports and personal consumption expenditures. Although weaker data points to weaker 2Q growth, consumer spending came in at a solid 0.3% m/m with upward revisions to the prior month, indicating consumption won’t be the driver of weakness for the quarter. Consumer confidence rose to 134.1 and consumer sentiment rose to 100.0, although they likely do not yet reflect the escalation in trade tensions reignited earlier this month.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 3, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and inventories, but upward revisions to imports, exports and personal consumption expenditures. Although weaker data points to weaker 2Q growth, consumer spending came in at a solid 0.3% m/m with upward revisions to the prior month, indicating consumption won’t be the driver of weakness for the quarter.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 20, 2019

Economic Update

1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. Data last week was mixed, with housing starts rising 5.7% and both NY and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys moving higher, but retail sales were down -0.2% and industrial production was down -0.5% in April, reflecting a gradual slowdown.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 13, 2019

Economic Update

1Q’19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q’18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. This was reflected in a weak ISM manufacturing PMI of 52.8, a Markit manufacturing PMI of 52.6, and 16.4 million auto sales in April, down from 17.5 million in March.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 6, 2019

Economic Update

1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. This was reflected in a weak ISM manufacturing PMI of 52.8, a Markit manufacturing PMI of 52.6, and 16.4 million auto sales in April, down from 17.5 million in March.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

April 29, 2019

Economic Update

1Q’19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q’18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade, and government spending. Although growth has accelerated contrary to expectations earlier in the first quarter, both consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. Given how strong inventories have been growing, even a slowdown in that trend would cause a significant slowdown to GDP growth.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

April 22, 2019

Economic Update

The final estimate of 4Q’18 U.S. real GDP growth was revised down from 2.6% to 2.2% q/q saar. Consumption, government spending and business fixed investment were all revised down slightly, but partially offset by lower imports. This week, 1Q’19 GDP will be released, and there were some positive signs for U.S. and global growth last week. In the U.S., retail sales grew 1.6% m/m, and the flash manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.4. Globally, manufacturing PMIs in Japan, France, Germany and the eurozone were mostly subdued, but could experience a lift in the coming months given optimistic industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data from China last week.

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