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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

October 14, 2019

Economic Update: October 14, 2019

The third estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, driven by consumption and government spending that were partially offset by inventories, net exports and housing. Looking ahead to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace, and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

October 7, 2019

Economic Update: October 7, 2019

The third estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, driven by consumption and government spending that were partially offset by inventories, net exports and housing. Looking ahead to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace, and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

September 30, 2019

Economic Update: September 30, 2019

The third estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, driven by consumption and government spending that were partially offset by inventories, net exports, and housing. Looking ahead to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace, and trade numbers should continue to be weak. A more moderate consumer was evident last week, with consumer spending for August up just 0.1% m/m, and the prior month revised down to 0.5%, and consumer confidence dropped to 125.1 from 134.2. On business fixed investment, durable goods orders were slightly positive, but nondefense ex-air orders decreased.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

September 23, 2019

Economic Update: September 23, 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak. However, housing data was positive last week, with healthier-than-expected increases in both housing starts and existing home sales. Industrial production rebounded from last month’s weak reading, rising 0.6% m/m.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

September 16, 2019

Economic Update: September 16, 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak. Retail sales for August were up a solid 0.4% m/m, but retail sales exautos were flat with downward revisions to the prior two months, reflecting a slight downshift in consumer momentum.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

September 9, 2019

Economic Update: September 9, 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

September 3, 2019

Economic Update: September 2, 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories, and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

August 26, 2019

Economic Update: August 26, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

August 19, 2019

Economic Update: August 19, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

August 12, 2019

Economic Update: August 12, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 29, 2019

Economic Update: July 29, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending, which grew at 5% annualized in the second quarter, and real consumer spending, which grew at a very strong 4.3%, were positive contributors to growth, while a 0.8% decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 22, 2019

Economic Update: July 22, 2019

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Second quarter growth will be released this Friday, and is likely to show solid consumption but weaker business fixed investment.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 15, 2019

Weekly Market Recap: July 15, 2019

With 24 companies having reported (5.2% of market cap), our current estimate for 2Q 2019 is $39.21, which represents 1.5% growth from a year prior. However, as this week’s chart shows, the earnings season is still in its early stages, and based on the average earnings surprise seen throughout this expansion of 3.8%, growth could be closer to 5.3% when all is said and done.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 15, 2019

Economic Update: July 15, 2019

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening. Durable goods orders and new homes sales came in weak, and confidence is waning as evidenced by a sharp decline in consumer confidence and a dip in consumer sentiment.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 8, 2019

Economic Update

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 1, 2019

Economic Update

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening.

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