September 21, 2020

2Q20 real GDP was -31.7% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20. The second quarter should mark the end of a severe but short recession, with a peak to trough decline of 10.2% in real terms.

September 14, 2020

2Q20 real GDP was revised slightly upwards from a drop of -32.9% to -31.7% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20.

August 31, 2020

2Q20 real GDP was revised slightly upwards from a drop of -32.9% to -31.7% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20.

August 24, 2020

Q20 real GDP fell 32.9% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20. The second quarter should mark the end of a severe but short recession, with a peak to trough decline of 10.6% in real terms.

August 17, 2020

2Q20 real GDP fell 32.9% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20. The second quarter should mark the end of a severe but short recession, with a peak to trough decline of 10.6% in real terms.

August 10, 2020

2Q20 real GDP fell 32.9% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20. The second quarter could mark the end of a severe but short recession, with a peak to trough decline of 10.6% in real terms.

August 3, 2020

2Q20 real GDP fell 32.9% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate following a 5.0% q/q decline in 1Q20. Declines were broad-based in consumption, exports, inventories, business fixed investment, housing, and state and local government spending.

July 27, 2020

1Q20 real GDP fell 5.0% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the start of a sharp recession. Last week, housing data continued to rebound strongly, with existing home sales rising 20.7% and new home sales rising 13.8%.

July 20, 2020

1Q20 real GDP fell 5.0% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the start of a sharp recession. Last week, data continued to rebound as June industrial production and retail sales beat expectations at 5.4% and 7.5% m/m, respectively.

July 13, 2020

1Q20 real GDP fell 5.0% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the start of a sharp recession. Last week, data continued to rebound off of April lows, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reentering expansionary territory at healthy 57.1 in June, driven by double-digit gains in production, new orders and employment.

July 6, 2020

1Q20 real GDP fell 5.0% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, marking the start of a sharp recession. Last week, data continued to rebound off of April lows, with the ISM manufacturing PMI reentering expansionary territory at 52.6 in June, while Markit mfg. PMI was just shy of neutral at 49.8.

June 29, 2020

1Q20 real GDP fell 5.0% q/q at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, essentially marking the start of a sharp recession as a result of a halt in economic activity in order to contain the spread of COVID-19.

June 22, 2020

Week of June 22 2020: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes

June 17, 2020

Week of June 15 2020: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes

June 8, 2020

Week of June 8 2020: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes