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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

August 19, 2019

Economic Update: August 19, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

August 12, 2019

Economic Update: August 12, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 29, 2019

Economic Update: July 29, 2019

The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending, which grew at 5% annualized in the second quarter, and real consumer spending, which grew at a very strong 4.3%, were positive contributors to growth, while a 0.8% decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 22, 2019

Economic Update: July 22, 2019

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Second quarter growth will be released this Friday, and is likely to show solid consumption but weaker business fixed investment.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 15, 2019

Weekly Market Recap: July 15, 2019

With 24 companies having reported (5.2% of market cap), our current estimate for 2Q 2019 is $39.21, which represents 1.5% growth from a year prior. However, as this week’s chart shows, the earnings season is still in its early stages, and based on the average earnings surprise seen throughout this expansion of 3.8%, growth could be closer to 5.3% when all is said and done.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 15, 2019

Economic Update: July 15, 2019

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening. Durable goods orders and new homes sales came in weak, and confidence is waning as evidenced by a sharp decline in consumer confidence and a dip in consumer sentiment.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 8, 2019

Economic Update

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

July 1, 2019

Economic Update

The third estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 24, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has slowed in 2Q19, with consumption still strong but business fixed investment weakening.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 17, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth came in at 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, with an inventory build-up and net exports still providing a big temporary boost during the quarter. Growth has downshifted in the second quarter, although consumer spending remains a bright spot for the economy.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 10, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and inventories, but upward revisions to imports, exports and personal consumption expenditures. Although weaker data points to weaker 2Q growth, consumer spending came in at a solid 0.3% m/m with upward revisions to the prior month, indicating consumption won’t be the driver of weakness for the quarter. Consumer confidence rose to 134.1 and consumer sentiment rose to 100.0, although they likely do not yet reflect the escalation in trade tensions reignited earlier this month.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

June 3, 2019

Economic Update

The second estimate of 1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.1% q/q saar, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.2%, reflecting downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and inventories, but upward revisions to imports, exports and personal consumption expenditures. Although weaker data points to weaker 2Q growth, consumer spending came in at a solid 0.3% m/m with upward revisions to the prior month, indicating consumption won’t be the driver of weakness for the quarter.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 20, 2019

Economic Update

1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. Data last week was mixed, with housing starts rising 5.7% and both NY and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys moving higher, but retail sales were down -0.2% and industrial production was down -0.5% in April, reflecting a gradual slowdown.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 13, 2019

Economic Update

1Q’19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q’18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. This was reflected in a weak ISM manufacturing PMI of 52.8, a Markit manufacturing PMI of 52.6, and 16.4 million auto sales in April, down from 17.5 million in March.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

May 6, 2019

Economic Update

1Q19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade and government spending. However, consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. This was reflected in a weak ISM manufacturing PMI of 52.8, a Markit manufacturing PMI of 52.6, and 16.4 million auto sales in April, down from 17.5 million in March.

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management

April 29, 2019

Economic Update

1Q’19 U.S. real GDP growth was 3.2% q/q saar, up a full percentage point from 2.2% in 4Q’18. Despite the protracted government shutdown and an anticipated fading boost from tax cuts, growth in 1Q was bolstered by high inventories, improving trade, and government spending. Although growth has accelerated contrary to expectations earlier in the first quarter, both consumption and business fixed investment were weaker contributors to growth, signaling that this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained this year. Given how strong inventories have been growing, even a slowdown in that trend would cause a significant slowdown to GDP growth.

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