September 30, 2019

The third estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, driven by consumption and government spending that were partially offset by inventories, net exports, and housing. Looking ahead to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace, and trade numbers should continue to be weak. A more moderate consumer was evident last week, with consumer spending for August up just 0.1% m/m, and the prior month revised down to 0.5%, and consumer confidence dropped to 125.1 from 134.2. On business fixed investment, durable goods orders were slightly positive, but nondefense ex-air orders decreased.

September 23, 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak. However, housing data was positive last week, with healthier-than-expected increases in both housing starts and existing home sales. Industrial production rebounded from last month’s weak reading, rising 0.6% m/m.