May 3, 2021

1Q21 real GDP grew at a 6.4% q/q seasonally adjusted annual rate. Increases were broad based, with the exception of trade and inventories.

March 29, 2021

Inflation continues to run below the FOMC’s 2% target, as the headline PCE price index rose 0.2% and the core PCE deflator rose 0.1% in February.

March 15, 2021

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 379,000 in February, nearly doubling consensus expectations. Notable gains occurred in restaurant and food service hiring, adding 286,000 jobs this month, as lockdown restrictions have eased.

March 8, 2021

The February ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 60.8, indicating the strongest output growth since 2018. In contrast, the Services PMI showed more subdued activity, but we expect to see a resurgence as the economic reopening accelerates.

March 1, 2021

January headline and core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, both up 1.5% y/y. Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m and core CPI was flat in January, both rising 1.4% y/y.

February 22, 2021

Retail sales had their biggest increase in seven months, rising 5.3% m/m, boosted by fiscal stimulus checks to households. Industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m in January, driven by an increase in oil and gas exploration.