PIMCO Archives - Traders' Insight

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed investment managers. Since our founding in 1971 in Newport Beach, California, we have grown into a global organization with more than 2,150+ professionals united in a single purpose: creating opportunities for our clients in every environment. Our focus on excellence and our short- and long-term track record has encouraged institutions, financial advisors and millions of individual investors to entrust us with their assets. Visit PIMCO’s blog. Subscribe To Get PIMCO Insights Delivered Directly to Your Inbox.

June 19, 2019

Oil Sell‑Off Sparks Investment Opportunities

In recent weeks, renewed trade concerns, slowing oil demand, and a notable acceleration in implied U.S. oil production have spurred a material sell-off in oil. Similar concerns caused oil prices to drop at the end of last year, which prompted OPEC+ (i.e., the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus 10 additional oil-producing nations) to cut production, reversing policy set earlier in the year of increasing output ahead of a reintroduction of sanctions on Iran.

June 12, 2019

Interest Rate Outlook: Fed Evaluating Risks to U.S. Economy

As U.S. Federal Reserve officials enter the communications blackout period ahead of the June 18–19 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, bond markets are pricing in a modest chance (roughly 12%) that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and a much higher (roughly 88%) chance of a cut by the subsequent meeting in late July (source: Bloomberg as of 10 June 2019).

June 5, 2019

Charting Emerging Market Equity Leadership: BATs vs. Value

May 29, 2019

Key Takeaways From PIMCO’s Secular Outlook: Dealing With Disruption

Our base case for the global economy over the secular three- to five-year horizon sounds relatively benign – at least at first sight. We foresee a continuation of lackluster economic growth on average. We expect low inflation to persist and central banks to keep interest rates at or below New Neutral levels.

May 15, 2019

The Pivot in U.S.-China Trade Policy May Herald Long Term Tension

In any trade negotiation, the last few innings are usually the most fragile since that is when more difficult issues are addressed, and the U.S.–China negotiations in early May are certainly proof. We had shared in the growing optimism that a deal would be secured given the political appetite on both sides, although we did note the inherent fragility of late-stage negotiations. Even with that caveat, however, the hardline pivot over the week of 6 May and the U.S. decision on 10 May to increase tariff rates on Chinese goods have taken virtually everyone by surprise, including us.

May 8, 2019

Repos: A Fresh Look at a Key Driver of Short Term Returns

May 1, 2019

A Tale of Three Cycles

Risk assets have staged a remarkable rebound from the dark days of December, but how long can the rally last? In taking a macro approach to the cyclical outlook for asset markets, I often use this simple framework: There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle. These days, each of these cycles is global. The three interact and influence each other, but each has its own key driver.

April 24, 2019

Trade Risks That Could Rattle Markets: NAFTA Withdrawal, Auto Tariffs

For decades, President Trump has called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) one of the “worst trade deals ever made.” More recently, Trump has threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the original NAFTA if Congress fails to ratify the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade deal that his administration has negotiated to replace NAFTA. This threat may be more than just a negotiating tactic. Here’s why.