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Avoiding Turbulence: Fed Policy and Communication in 2021
Because of the outlook for highly expansive U.S. fiscal policy, many market participants have shifted focus to the Fed’s exit strategy.
Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy
While there may be some temporary frictions at the border, they pale in comparison to the near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of COVID-19 and the speed of the vaccination distribution.
Tail Winds Provide Lift for Emerging Markets Investments
Cyclical Outlook Takeaways: Bounded Optimism on the Global Economy
In our January 2021 Cyclical Outlook we discuss the outlook for global growth, policy, and inflation in 2021, together with the implications for markets and investors. This blog post is a distillation of our views.
Asset Allocation Views: Early Cycle Investing
As our latest Asset Allocation Outlook discusses in detail, we expect profit growth will accelerate, and the improvement in fundamentals should bode well for risk markets and cyclical assets in particular.
The 60/40 Portfolio Is Alive and Well
The Fed’s Latest Balance Sheet Guidance: A Compass, Not a Map
At the December 2020 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed kept the pace and composition of its asset purchases unchanged, but provided new forward guidance, in line with expectations
Green Light to a Greener Economy: Three Investment Trends
Harvesting Yield in Emerging Markets
Top 5 Insights From the European Investment Summit 2020
PIMCO’s recent annual Investment Summit aimed to help investors prepare for a world of “Escalating Disruption”. Here are five key takeaways.
Secular Outlook Takeaways: Escalating Disruption
This post discusses the importance of being prepared for a variety of disruptions and actively pursuing opportunities that arise when volatility occurs.
Assessing China’s “Structural” Monetary Policy
The overarching economic goal of China’s leadership is to transform its old growth model to a more sustainable path, addressing the long-term challenges of an aging population, declining productivity and less and less room for policy stimulus.
Emerging Market Bonds: Part of a Resilient Portfolio?
Should the Fed Buy Treasuries or Agency MBS During QE? Yes
The Role of Bonds in a New Era of Low Yields
Monetary Policy Framework: The Fed Says What, But Needs Help on How
While the Fed announcement came earlier than anticipated, the conclusions were in line with the evolutionary, not revolutionary, changes to the Fed’s framework we have long been expecting.
Gold Still Shines Bright
A Slow and Uneven Recovery Still Likely Despite July’s U.S. Price Bounce
Overall, July’s CPI rebound is encouraging, as it now appears CPI inflation could end 2020 closer to 1.5% y/y.
Fed Reinforces Commitment to Ongoing Monetary Policy Support
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not announce a major shift in monetary policy following the July meeting.
June CPI Report Underscores Economic Fragilities
Consumer prices were firmer than widely expected in June, but underlying softness in the report was a stark reminder that the U.S. economy remains fragile and that more stimulus will likely be necessary to support the recovery.
Asset Allocation Takeaways: Building Resiliency Amid Uncertainty
The challenge facing investors is how to construct portfolios in an environment where asset prices appear disconnected from the real economy and the resolution of the health crisis is murky.
Public‑Private Solutions to Safeguard Economies Everywhere
Public-private partnerships and solutions that bring the rather arcane world of “development finance” into mainstream investment practice could be an important, and beneficial, development to come out of this extraordinarily difficult period.
Cyclicals 2.0: Green and Digital
While unique and specific to each country or region, the policy moves seen around much of the world have an unusual amount of commonality with substantial support recurring around two broad themes: green and digital
The Long Climb
Rather than looking back at the vertiginous drop in economic activity that ended the record 128-month economic expansion in February, we discussed the likely nature and shape of the nascent recovery.
In Search of Credit Quality – Q&A
In this Q&A, portfolio managers Eve Tournier and Sonali Pier share their interpretation of recent market moves, and their views on what parts of the market investors should pay attention to – and which to avoid.
Six Key Questions on U.S. Policy and the Economic Outlook
Looking ahead to the U.S. economy gradually reopening as policymakers inject record stimulus – all of this in an election year – Libby Cantrill, PIMCO’s head of public policy, and Tiffany Wilding, North America economist, assess the key questions and risks.
Post‑COVID Economy: Not the Way We Were
Europe: Moment of Truth
One major airline announced that it may need to lay off around one-third of its staff, and reports suggest three-quarters of U.K. restaurant and bar operators risk going bankrupt. In Italy and Spain, tourism represents around 12% and 14% of respective GDP, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, and it’s hard to see these activities coming back anytime soon.