March 4, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 4, 2021
While vol tends to sneak up on most, I can’t say that we weren’t ready for it. Something to consider in regards to commodities, is China looks to be moving into a Scenario 3 set-up.
A 100 year old Chicago based Futures Clearing Merchant, RJO Futures is a division of RJ O’Brien & Associates, one of the premier futures brokers in the industry. We focus intently on assisting institutional and retail clients to meet their market goals on a both a full-service and self-directed scale. Service is our trade. Sign up for our Daily Fundamental Market Insights and Emailed Trade Recommendations by selecting this link.
March 3, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 3, 2021
Following a bounce to “lower highs” overnight in stocks, we’re right back down where we closed yesterday. US ADP Employment was released this morning printing 117K vs 200K exp private payrolls released.
February 23, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 23, 2021
SPY -2.5% correction off the top, NQ -6.8% from peak to trough this morning, and the Russell 2000 -4% off the top. Here’s some perspective, The SPY is +82%, NQ +109%, RTY +144% on a y/y basis. So today is not the day to hem and haw over a correction.
February 16, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 16, 2021
Gold is struggling, Silver, Copper and Platinum aka semiconductor metals are killing it this morning – remember, Gold is a currency and vastly underperforms in Scenario 2. Not to say that we won’t come back to Gold at a later time, just not at the moment.
February 9, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 9, 2021
The steepening of the yield curve (2s/10s) has officially gone mainstream. Same thing, not a bad idea to curtail that position (but leave the core short), so we can reallocate from more advantageous prices.
January 28, 2021
An Opportunity or The Beginning of a Deeper Correction?
If anything, the recent events of the “bear raid” of 2021, we should have gained a better understanding of the meaningless term of “valuation”.
January 8, 2021
Market Outlook: Jan. 8, 2021
Growth accelerating/inflation accelerating through the first half of 2021 as y/y comps of macro data and corporate earnings and profits may perhaps express the greatest rate of change acceleration since post WW2.
December 10, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 10, 2020
SPY lost 0.9% yesterday, NQ -2.4%, and RTY -0.7%. That’s right we traded down yesterday, a rare event nowadays.
December 7, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 7, 2020
Running back last week, it was a great week to be long of inflation related assets. Particularly Oil +1.6% (+17% m/m), Copper +3.1% (+15% m/m), and Platinum +2.9% taking its monthly gains to +10.4%.
December 3, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 3, 2020
The USD is now entering perhaps a “crash” phase. -10% since June, you can clearly overlap a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and the US Dollar Index from June to present and see it “gator mouth”.
November 11, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Nov. 11 2020
Top Market Movers on Nov 11 2020: Oil, stock market rotation, USD, Bitcoin, and commodities inflation.
November 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook Nov. 6, 2020
We’ll wait and watch to see if the IV Premiums sweat off (they already are), and turn into DISCOUNTS which is a classic complacency signal, usually coupled with an immediate overbought condition.
October 29, 2020
Futures Market Outlook For Oct 29,2020
US Equities took a nose dive yesterday with the SPY and Nasdaq shaving off 2.8% and 3.0% respectively. Commodity prices also got whacked with Oil -4.0%, and down another 5.0% this morning.
October 27, 2020
Futures Market Outlook for Oct 27, 2020
Following yesterday’s route in global equities, we’ve got some green lit up on the board in the pre-market as US and European equities signaled immediate oversold yesterday.
October 20, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct 20,2020
The probability changed from a “risk-off” scenario – to a continuation of more “Stagflation”. That’s how we’re reading the model in the morning.
October 13, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct 13, 2020
Commodities have kind of floundered since the start of Q4. Following the big “reflation” trade from June to September, the CRB Index has just chopped sideways and looks like it could roll over in Q4.
October 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct. 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook OCT 6, 2020 for gold, US, oil, and more!
September 30, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: September 30, 2020
A fairly mixed bag overnight – nothing of note outside of the SP500 failing again from the top level of our range.
September 21, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: September 21, 2020
Last week the dollar was signaling higher lows, and a rising probability that it was going to stabilize here in the lower half of our range. That’s proving correct this morning.
September 15, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: September 15, 2020
Nothing substantial overnight. The Chinese Yuan did hit a 16 month high vs the USD on stronger reported Industrial Production growth.
September 9, 2020
Futures Markets Insights: September 9, 2020
The crash, and the BOUNCE. Be conscious of the idea that that may be “it” on the downside for now. We saw the “heart attack” drop at the 5pm open last night, and then a rally ensued overnight.
September 1, 2020
Today’s Futures Market Outlook: September 1, 2020
A big ramp higher in the overnight in Tech. The NASDAQ +0.90% overnight all the while the SP500 and Russell 2K trade flat.
August 27, 2020
Today’s Futures Outlook: August 27, 2020
The commodity rally is broadening vs the equity rally. Agriculture joins the mix with Corn and Soybeans +3.00% and Soybeans +0.73% and +3.2% on the week. Metals caught a strong bid yesterday, consolidating gains this morning.
August 24, 2020
Today’s Futures Outlook: Aug 24 2020
Futures Outlook Aug 24 2020: Global Equities, metals, agriculture, currencies, and more!
August 21, 2020
Today’s Futures Outlook: August 21, 2020
US Futures indicating a lower open led by the Small Cap Russell 2000 Index -0.88%. Europe lower across the board, led by Germany -1.08%; France -1.09%; Italy -1.25%; and Spain -1.12%
