July 8, 2021
Market Outlook: July 8, 2021
A notable development yesterday was a POSITIVE momentum shift on the WEEKLY chart in the US Dollar Index.
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July 1, 2021
Market Outlook: July 1, 2021
Stocks are doing what stocks usually do into holiday weekends, expanding range on both the SPY and Nasdaq’s.
March 22, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 22, 2021
Coming off of a “correction” week in stocks, we’re seeing a modest bounce back this morning. That’s of course if you want to call -2.0% off of the all-time high a correction.
March 9, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 9, 2021
Wash DC Stimulus efforts look to be nearly complete. NASDAQ remains in the “red” ytd -2.3%, as the re-open stocks gain aka the small caps gain capture the rotation in markets
March 4, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 4, 2021
While vol tends to sneak up on most, I can’t say that we weren’t ready for it. Something to consider in regards to commodities, is China looks to be moving into a Scenario 3 set-up.
March 3, 2021
Market Outlook: Mar. 3, 2021
Following a bounce to “lower highs” overnight in stocks, we’re right back down where we closed yesterday. US ADP Employment was released this morning printing 117K vs 200K exp private payrolls released.
February 23, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 23, 2021
SPY -2.5% correction off the top, NQ -6.8% from peak to trough this morning, and the Russell 2000 -4% off the top. Here’s some perspective, The SPY is +82%, NQ +109%, RTY +144% on a y/y basis. So today is not the day to hem and haw over a correction.
February 16, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 16, 2021
Gold is struggling, Silver, Copper and Platinum aka semiconductor metals are killing it this morning – remember, Gold is a currency and vastly underperforms in Scenario 2. Not to say that we won’t come back to Gold at a later time, just not at the moment.
February 9, 2021
Market Outlook: Feb. 9, 2021
The steepening of the yield curve (2s/10s) has officially gone mainstream. Same thing, not a bad idea to curtail that position (but leave the core short), so we can reallocate from more advantageous prices.
January 28, 2021
An Opportunity or The Beginning of a Deeper Correction?
If anything, the recent events of the “bear raid” of 2021, we should have gained a better understanding of the meaningless term of “valuation”.
January 8, 2021
Market Outlook: Jan. 8, 2021
Growth accelerating/inflation accelerating through the first half of 2021 as y/y comps of macro data and corporate earnings and profits may perhaps express the greatest rate of change acceleration since post WW2.
December 10, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 10, 2020
SPY lost 0.9% yesterday, NQ -2.4%, and RTY -0.7%. That’s right we traded down yesterday, a rare event nowadays.
December 7, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 7, 2020
Running back last week, it was a great week to be long of inflation related assets. Particularly Oil +1.6% (+17% m/m), Copper +3.1% (+15% m/m), and Platinum +2.9% taking its monthly gains to +10.4%.
December 3, 2020
Market Outlook: Dec. 3, 2020
The USD is now entering perhaps a “crash” phase. -10% since June, you can clearly overlap a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet expansion and the US Dollar Index from June to present and see it “gator mouth”.
November 11, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Nov. 11 2020
Top Market Movers on Nov 11 2020: Oil, stock market rotation, USD, Bitcoin, and commodities inflation.
November 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook Nov. 6, 2020
We’ll wait and watch to see if the IV Premiums sweat off (they already are), and turn into DISCOUNTS which is a classic complacency signal, usually coupled with an immediate overbought condition.
October 29, 2020
Futures Market Outlook For Oct 29,2020
US Equities took a nose dive yesterday with the SPY and Nasdaq shaving off 2.8% and 3.0% respectively. Commodity prices also got whacked with Oil -4.0%, and down another 5.0% this morning.
October 27, 2020
Futures Market Outlook for Oct 27, 2020
Following yesterday’s route in global equities, we’ve got some green lit up on the board in the pre-market as US and European equities signaled immediate oversold yesterday.
October 20, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct 20,2020
The probability changed from a “risk-off” scenario – to a continuation of more “Stagflation”. That’s how we’re reading the model in the morning.
October 13, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct 13, 2020
Commodities have kind of floundered since the start of Q4. Following the big “reflation” trade from June to September, the CRB Index has just chopped sideways and looks like it could roll over in Q4.
October 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook: Oct. 6, 2020
Futures Market Outlook OCT 6, 2020 for gold, US, oil, and more!
