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Deja-vu All Over Again
Reflation is Nigh
Why Crude Oil Is Slipping
The Big Long
The Big (Equity) Splurge
Recessions Are Cancelled!
Business cycle has long been at the very core of a widely accepted understanding of how modern economies operate. The cycle of expansion and recession is the closest macroeconomics gets to its version of the laws of planetary motion.
We Are Winning!
In anticipation of a vaccination-led recovery, and fueled by additional fiscal stimulus, the IMF is now expecting the US growth to reach 5.1% in 2021, an entire 2 percentage points higher than its October prediction. That would be the strongest performance since 1984, based on the data.
The Emerging (Money) Spillover
As investors watch (no doubt with some schadenfreude) masters of the universe battling a crowd of retail investors in The GameStop war, it’s worth asking where else unprecedented liquidity is likely to go.
Small Caps, Large Moves
It hasn’t gone unnoticed that the Russell 2000 index – a proxy for small cap performance – just turned in its best quarter since 1979. This is not entirely surprising because small caps typically do better as you pull out of a recession.
The $900 Billion Trade
Over the past decade, the Fed has wired a scarcely believable $838 billion in such profits to the Treasury.
Why Are Oil Prices Rising?
Crude oil, along with copper, is one of those commodities experienced investors pay attention to because of their extreme sensitivity to the economic cycle.
Optimizing Time Series Databases for Machine Learning
Bracing for the Great Rebalancing
These words haunt every good run for equities into year-end: rebalancing. Large multi-asset investors that typically stick to some version of a 60-40 equity-fixed income portfolio need to readjust their holdings by selling stocks after a strong equity run.
Equity Bulls, Dollar Bears
One way to think about it is that currency movements respond to interest rate differentials, and those often reflect relative economic growth performance.
What VIX is Telling Us
It’s Got to End Sometime
Whoever wins the election (whenever we finally find out) will inherit a US economy that remains “well below” pre-pandemic levels and continues to see more than 750,000 new unemployment claims per week.
Market Movements Around Elections
Who Wins (After) the Election
Nasdaq is typically flat a week after Election day while S&P 500 gives some of its rise back: since 1980, it has typically dropped about 1% in the week after.