Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?
Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, according to Ed Perks, executive vice president and chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions.
Notes From The Road: An Equity Investor’s Lens On China
Headlines over the U.S.-China trade dispute have been practically inescapable. On the heels of a recent visit to China, I can say this is as true there as it is in the U.S. If timing is everything, ours was very good (or bad), as our visit came just as high hopes for a trade deal had collapsed to a deep mutual mistrust.
Updating Our ETF Satellite Recommendations
GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 14)
Raw Sugar (SB) Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross
FX Rundown (06.12.19)
Why Stocks May See That Big Break Out On June 13
A Global Economy Far From “Normal”
Election fever hit India and Australia in May. The former, the largest democratic election in the world, resulted in a comfortable win for the incumbent – Narendra Modi and his Hindu Nationalist Party (Bharatiya Janata Party). Mr. Modi comes from a humble background and this appears to have resonated with millions of voters aspiring to a similar uplift in fortunes.
Oil Rebounds, Futures Tick Higher
The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points, or 0.4%, above fair value, supported by a bounce in oil and by lingering optimism for the Fed’s policy decision next week. Many of the energy stocks are up in pre-market action following the sharp increase in the price of oil ($53.04/bbl, +$1.90, +3.7%), which fell over 4% yesterday.
Early Look: Thursday, June 13, 2019
U.S. futures point to a bounce after slipping for a second straight session on Wednesday, dragged down by weaker energy and financial stocks (on lower oil and rising interest cut expectations), but look to steady ahead of jobless claims and import data later this morning. Oil prices surged today after reports of an attack on two tankers near Iran, boosting the region’s oil stocks.
GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 13)
EURUSD Breaking Weekly Chart Descending Wedge Resistance
GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 12)
Why The World Economy Is Like A Wobbly Bike
Central Banks Provide A Silver Lining To The Escalating Trade War
A collective sigh of relief was expelled on Friday evening as US President Donald Trump announced he would indefinitely suspend the planned imposition of tariffs on Mexico — which was set to go into effect on June 10.
Interest Rate Outlook: Fed Evaluating Risks to U.S. Economy
As U.S. Federal Reserve officials enter the communications blackout period ahead of the June 18–19 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, bond markets are pricing in a modest chance (roughly 12%) that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and a much higher (roughly 88%) chance of a cut by the subsequent meeting in late July (source: Bloomberg as of 10 June 2019).
Can Trump Manage the Economic Cycle?
Silver (SI) Readying to Retest Key 15 Level
China Last Night – Multiple Catalysts as Mainland Volumes Surge
The State Council announced local governments will be allowed to issue bonds to fund infrastructure projects such as railway, highway and energy projects. This activity had been curtailed as tax cuts limited funds available. Infrastructure related names had a very strong day on the news as brokers estimate it could raise GDP by 20 to 50bps. Policy makers willingness to support the economy was broadly seen as a positive by the market as it should be!
Trading (Not Trade) Momentum Boosting The Market
The futures market is showing nice gains this morning for the major indices, which is setting up the cash market for a positive start. The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.
GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 11)
Fundamentals: The Dollar slipped on Friday following an underwhelming Nonfarm Payroll report. Average Hourly Earnings came in at +0.2% versus +0.3% expected and weak job growth was confirmed. This lifted the Euro to nearly a two-month high and secured a breakout above trend line resistance.