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Blue Line Futures

August 19, 2019

FX Rundown: August 19th, 2019

Fundamentals: The Euro secured its fifth straight losing session after Eurozone CPI was soft and the German Bundesbank warned of a recession in its latest Monthly Report this morning. Although Michigan Consumer data in the U.S missed on Friday, broadly stronger data throughout the week helped fuel the Dollar Index to the highest level since August 1st, the day after the Fed cut. Uncertainties tied to Italy and the ongoing Brexit have also dragged on the Euro of late. Today, Boston Fed President Rosengren who is known to be a hawk advised against additional rate cuts. The debate will heat up in the back half of the week as the Fed releases the Minutes from their July rate-cut meeting Wednesday and the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off Thursday with the keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell Friday.
Technicals: Price action slipped below support at 1.1201 midweek last week and has continued to slide. In fact, Friday was a new front-month settlement low by half a tick and today’s was lower. The Euro is now below key support at 1.11265-1.1149 and there does not seem to be much technically in the way between where it is now and a direct test into … Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

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August 16, 2019

The Blues Brothers

Global stocks have taken a bath in recent days, but there’s at least one investor “buying the dip”. News broke late on Wednesday that billionaire Bill Ackman’s investment firm had taken a large stake in that of another billionaire – Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

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Janus Henderson

August 15, 2019

Revamping the Client Segmentation Process

Busy is not the same as effective. In our “always-on” environment, we are constantly trying to keep up with what’s in front of us at any given moment. This approach does not lend itself to long-term planning, daily stress management or reflection on the question, “Am I doing the right things to create success in my business?”

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August 15, 2019

Game of Bridge or Game of Thrones between China and U.S.?

The entire German yield curve is negative. The U.S. 3-Month Treasury yield is at 2%, while the 10-Year yield currently sits close to 1.65%. Excluding U.S. debt with 20 years to maturity or more, U.S. short-term Treasuries now have the highest yield among all developed-nation debt.

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SL Advisors

August 14, 2019

Art of the Tariff

Trade friction threatens global growth. The IMF recently called for a quick resolution between the U.S. and China. It’s blamed for the continuing drop in bond yields, with some investors openly contemplating whether the U.S. could soon join other developed country sovereign debt with negative interest rates.

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State Street Global Advisors

August 13, 2019

Investing In The Age Of De-Globalization

From a macro perspective, de-globalisation should therefore work like globalisation in reverse, though this is unlikely to be in a perfectly symmetrical manner. Trade-dependent economies are most vulnerable, with small to middle open economies challenged to revamp their growth models.

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Invesco US

August 13, 2019

You Can’t Train A Great White Shark – Or Control Global Trade

In my view, the US has exhibited these two forms of overconfidence bias in its current trade situation. First, the desirability effect: In my travels, it has been clear that the vast majority of Americans I’ve spoken with believe it would be desirable to have more favorable trading conditions, which helps to explain why the Trump administration has been so focused on strong-arming other nations, especially China, into better trade agreements.

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Interactive Advisors

August 13, 2019

It’s a Small, Small World

Global equity markets have been experiencing heightened volatility over the last few weeks. In my opinion, there are quite a few intertwined issues at work here. First, China’s economy has a large export component, accounting for nearly 50% of all GDP. China has made the domestic economy a focus, to reduce its dependence on exports over the last decade.

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