Ag Markets, At an Inflection Ahead of Planting
Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1.636mmt, a marketing year high. Planting is getting underway in the U.S., Texas is estimated to be 3% planted, 4% behind the five-year average pace.
March 2, 2021
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: March 2, 2021
Bond Market Making Some Noise
Economic Update: Mar. 1, 2021
January headline and core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, both up 1.5% y/y. Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m and core CPI was flat in January, both rising 1.4% y/y.
Gold/Silver: The Commodities You Cannot Ignore
Putting Inflation Concerns in Perspective
In this episode of Franklin Templeton’s “Talking Markets” podcast, they discuss interest rates, deficits, inflation concerns, commodity prices, rising US Treasury yields, and the global rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Market Corrections Are Tears in The Rain, Week in Review
Asian equities were taken to the woodshed overnight. Yesterday’s US Treasury yield spike reminded me of the 2013 taper tantrum when Ben Bernanke said they were thinking of slowing quantitative easing.
Why Asian Local Currency Bonds Look Appealing in A World of The Zero
The Queen’s Gambit Declined
The game of chess shows us that there are reasons why declining to take a particular position today may actually offer better long-term prospects for portfolios, and a higher probability of winning the long game.
The Pain Threshold Has Been Tapped
The pain threshold has been tapped and U.S. benchmarks are taking it in stride. The move in rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury Note out above 1.5%, has weighed heavily on risk-assets this week.
The Big Long
Bond Yields Rocket
The Biden Put
Which Historical Volatility Do You Choose?
Reflation, Flation, What’s Your Nation?
In this blog piece, we want to take a deeper look into a theme—reflation.
The Resistance that Defines the Week
U.S. benchmarks rebounded from yesterday’s early bloodbath and the S&P finished positive. In fact, most sectors, led by Energy and Communication Services, gained ground.
What Has Driven Platinum to Multi-Year Highs?
Bitcoin: Digital Currency, Digital Gold, or Digital Tulip?
Bitcoin has gained credibility over the past three years, but I believe its use as a currency, a diversifier or an inflation hedge is a bit off the mark.
A New Commodities Supercycle Could Be Powering Up After a Long Freeze
The Inflection Point has Arrived
Tech is getting slammed again. Yesterday, the NQ lost 2.5% and the added selling overnight is dragging the risk-environment lower. We have hammered home the rising rate narrative and how a high velocity move in the 10-year Treasury above 1.25% will tap a pain threshold at 1.50%.
According to a report released over the weekend, Goldman Sachs thinks the oil price is going to get a substantial top-up sooner than it previously thought.
Market Outlook: Feb. 23, 2021
SPY -2.5% correction off the top, NQ -6.8% from peak to trough this morning, and the Russell 2000 -4% off the top. Here’s some perspective, The SPY is +82%, NQ +109%, RTY +144% on a y/y basis. So today is not the day to hem and haw over a correction.
February 23, 2021
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: February 23, 2021
The Inflationary Bogeyman Rears His Head
Economic Update: Feb. 22, 2021
Retail sales had their biggest increase in seven months, rising 5.3% m/m, boosted by fiscal stimulus checks to households. Industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m in January, driven by an increase in oil and gas exploration.