Gold Still Attractive as the Bond Selloff Looks Overdone
Buy The Dip & Bank RRR Cut Speculation Lead to Spectacular Day
Asian equities had a strong day as China, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all outperformed. By far the most important catalyst for Mainland China and Hong Kong overnight was a report that banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), the amount of deposits they need to hold, could be cut for regional banks, which would free up cash for lending.
Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation
While a period of above-target inflation has become more likely, in our view, the likelihood of a self-reinforcing inflationary process similar to what happened in the 1970s is still relatively low.
Jobs on the Mind as Rates Creep Back Up
Monday’s strength, as glorious as it was, clearly got a little ahead of itself. U.S. benchmarks struggled to hold gains at key technical levels Tuesday before slipping into settlement.
The Fed Mutes The Messenger
Market Outlook: Mar. 3, 2021
Following a bounce to “lower highs” overnight in stocks, we’re right back down where we closed yesterday. US ADP Employment was released this morning printing 117K vs 200K exp private payrolls released.
The Only Thing We Have to Fear…
Beta or Quality?
Vaccines Pave the Way For ‘Normal Life’ to Re-Emerge in Israel
As Israel leads the way in COVID-19 vaccinations, events such as concerts and theater performances return after an 11-month ban.
Berkshire Hathaway reported its fourth-quarter earnings over the weekend, and it looks like Warren Buffett’s investment conglomerate is its own biggest fan…
Feeling A Little Sheepish — But Only A Little
It will be interesting to see if yesterday was the high watermark for the week for the major indices. It’s possible given how strong the gains were.
March 2, 2021
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: March 2, 2021
When Will the Steepening Stop?
Rally in the Alley
Bond Market Making Some Noise
Weekly Market Recap: Mar. 1, 2021
Economic Update: Mar. 1, 2021
January headline and core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, both up 1.5% y/y. Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m and core CPI was flat in January, both rising 1.4% y/y.
Putting Inflation Concerns in Perspective
In this episode of Franklin Templeton’s “Talking Markets” podcast, they discuss interest rates, deficits, inflation concerns, commodity prices, rising US Treasury yields, and the global rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Market Corrections Are Tears in The Rain, Week in Review
Asian equities were taken to the woodshed overnight. Yesterday’s US Treasury yield spike reminded me of the 2013 taper tantrum when Ben Bernanke said they were thinking of slowing quantitative easing.
Would A P/E Mean-Reversion Be Painful or Benign For Stocks?
Why Asian Local Currency Bonds Look Appealing in A World of The Zero
The Queen’s Gambit Declined
The game of chess shows us that there are reasons why declining to take a particular position today may actually offer better long-term prospects for portfolios, and a higher probability of winning the long game.
The Pain Threshold Has Been Tapped
The pain threshold has been tapped and U.S. benchmarks are taking it in stride. The move in rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury Note out above 1.5%, has weighed heavily on risk-assets this week.
Keep A Close Watch on Interest Rates
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 116 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 29 points and are trading slightly below fair value.