Trading Around the World
Prepare FX Hedges For USD Bear Market Risk
China Last Night: October 15, 2019
Asian equities were predominantly up with Japan playing catch up after yesterday’s holiday while South Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Indonesia were up. China, Malaysia and Singapore were down today while Hong Kong was basically flat despite China’s mainland media confirming trade talks had made “substantial progress”. Yesterday’s Bloomberg article on the lack of media mention was the latest negative spin on the positive steps taken by both sides.
October 15, 2019
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: October 15, 2019
FX Rundown: October 14, 2019
Fundamentals: Risk assets found broad support to finish last week as President Trump paraded an interim trade deal. Mounting positivity surrounding Brexit and soft U.S inflation data brought additional tailwinds to help the Euro settle Friday at the highest level since September 19th. The tables quickly turned coming out of the weekend though, cold water was poured over progress on each U.S-China and Brexit. Still, the Euro is clinging to gains in a low volatility atmosphere ahead of a crucial German ZEW Sentiment read tomorrow morning. The economic data has not gotten any better, Chinese Trade Balance last night showed Exports and Imports both contracted more than expected and tomorrow we hear the IMF’s revised growth estimates. We continue to believe rallies in the Euro are sell opportunities and if ZEW misses at 4:00 am CT tomorrow, look for follow through from today’s session to the downside.
Chart View: Why China’s Currency Will Not Be Weaponized…
China Last Night: October 10, 2019
The latest round of trade negotiations begins today in Washington. It was a Jekyll & Hyde session as news flow swung from positive (US China FX deal, truce/not deal feasibility, US Huawei exemptions) to bad (little progress on Monday/Tuesday US China lower level trade dialogue, NBA, visas) back to positive leading to a mixed overnight session as Japan, HK and China gained while Korea and India were down on the day with Taiwan closed for holiday.
EURJPY Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross
Asia-Pacific Week Ahead (Oct 14-18): Australia’s Consumers Lose Confidence As Wage Concerns Grow
FX Rundown: October 8, 2019
October 8, 2019
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: October 8, 2019
GBPAUD Retesting 61.8% Fib Retrace of May-July Fall
FX Rundown: October 2, 2019
October 1, 2019
Technical Analysis Heading into Tuesday’s Open: October 1, 2019
Sensex Ends 167 Points Lower; Metal and Realty Stocks Witness Huge Selling
China Last Night: September 26, 2019
Asian markets were positive after President Trump’s press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Abe included positive comments on a China trade deal. The 180 from yesterday’s UN speech, which sent markets tumbling, had a positive effect today in Asia following the positive effect in the US yesterday. Mainland markets were outliers as retail investors sold recent winners especially media technology names, gold, and small caps.
Early Look: Thursday, September 26, 2019
Stocks futures in the U.S. are moving higher, following strong gains on Wednesday and overnight advances in both Asia and Europe, as signs of easing trade tensions with China outweighed political drama in Washington. President Donald Trump suggested a trade deal with China was possible and showed signs of moving toward a pact with Japan.
GBPAUD Rejected @ 61.8% Fib Retrace of May-July Fall
The British Pound: Undervalued And A Short-Term Trade Setup!
China Last Night: September 24, 2019
Asia was broadly up on small gains as Japan reopened after missing yesterday’s downdraft due to a holiday. The Hang Seng finally made a small gain while the mainland rose despite being off its highs as investors raised vacation cash pre-Golden Week in the afternoon session.
Swedish Krona (SEK) Set to Weaken
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that the Riksbank, the oldest central bank in the world, is behind the curve. Specifically, a consensus is forming that the Riksbank is too sanguine regarding growth, employment, inflation, and inflation expectations.Over the past year, Sweden’s unemployment has risen by more than 1% and from its trough has risen 1.4%.
Early Look: September 24, 2019
U.S. stock futures are edging higher once again, rising on trade optimism after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said late Monday that U.S.-China trade talks will resume in two weeks in Washington (not new news but gives more specific timeframe). Mnuchin said “the President’s been very clear if we can get the right deal, he wants the deal.” “If we can’t get the right deal, he’s happy with the tariffs.”
September 24, 2019
Technical Analysis (Copper, Japanese Yen, Natural Gas and more) Heading into Tuesday’s Open: September 24, 2019
German Recession: Time To Buy The Euro?
What is the EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y Signalling?
3 Reasons Why I See Further Upside Potential for Gold Prices
UNIZO: At ¥4300+, RiskArb Odds Are NOT Ever In Your Favor and More
Unizo Holdings (3258 JP) has a bid from a White Knight. It got four of them – another of which was also at ¥4000/share, but Unizo chose Fortress.
Negative Bond Yields: Try To Stay Positive
Morning Express: September 19, 2019
The Fed met expectations yesterday by cutting rates and although U.S benchmarks swung briefly in both directions, they are right where they were leading up to the policy decision. FOMC members poured cold water over the action by not forecasting additional cuts this year. In contrast, the market is pricing in a coin flip that we see another cut in October and a 60% probability they cut again before year-end.