FX Rundown: August 19th, 2019
Fundamentals: The Euro secured its fifth straight losing session after Eurozone CPI was soft and the German Bundesbank warned of a recession in its latest Monthly Report this morning. Although Michigan Consumer data in the U.S missed on Friday, broadly stronger data throughout the week helped fuel the Dollar Index to the highest level since August 1st, the day after the Fed cut. Uncertainties tied to Italy and the ongoing Brexit have also dragged on the Euro of late. Today, Boston Fed President Rosengren who is known to be a hawk advised against additional rate cuts. The debate will heat up in the back half of the week as the Fed releases the Minutes from their July rate-cut meeting Wednesday and the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off Thursday with the keynote speech from Fed Chair Powell Friday.
Technicals: Price action slipped below support at 1.1201 midweek last week and has continued to slide. In fact, Friday was a new front-month settlement low by half a tick and today’s was lower. The Euro is now below key support at 1.11265-1.1149 and there does not seem to be much technically in the way between where it is now and a direct test into … Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Economic Update: August 19, 2019
The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted. Looking forward to the third quarter, inventory growth should decline further while consumer spending and government spending will likely grow at a more moderate pace and trade numbers should continue to be weak.
Twin Engines Giving Stock Market Some Lift
The stock market staged a rebound rally on Friday, which apparently isn’t done yet. That rally is set to resume at today’s opening bell, as clearly indicated by the futures market. Currently, the S&P futures are up 30 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 102 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 279 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value.
Deere Oh Deere
On Friday, agricultural equipment-maker Deere lowered its annual earnings outlook for the second time this year, while reporting quarterly results that stumbled short of investors’ expectations.
August 19, 2019
Technical Analysis (Gold, Dollar, Oil and more) Heading into Monday’s Open: August 19, 2019
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: August 19, 2019 – August 23, 2019
Weekly Calendar: August 19, 2019 – August 23, 2019 – Monday August 19th: Economic Calendar: No Major Economic Data Released;Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: EL,Earnings After the Close: NOVA
Huawei Still Under The Microscope
Corn (ZC) Nearing 2019 Low
What Extreme Monetary Policy Means for Gold (w/ Greg Weldon)
Cotton (CT) Daily MACD Positively Crossing
Recession, Really? Not Based on Today’s Economic Data
New Week, Same Volatility In The World Of Natural Gas
USDCAD Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross
Ready For A Retracement As 10-2 Spread Inverts
Based on the trading action in the futures market, there is no mistaking that the cash market is going to start today’s session on a decidedly lower note. Currently, the S&P futures are down 41 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The indications aren’t any better for the other indices.
Art of the Tariff
Trade friction threatens global growth. The IMF recently called for a quick resolution between the U.S. and China. It’s blamed for the continuing drop in bond yields, with some investors openly contemplating whether the U.S. could soon join other developed country sovereign debt with negative interest rates.
Economist Perspective: Trade-War Recession
Natural Gas (NG) Daily MACD Positively Crossing
FX Rundown: August 13th, 2019
August 13, 2019
Technical Analysis (Gold, Dollar, Oil and more) Heading into Tuesday’s Open: August 13, 2019
Morning Express: August 13, 2019
U.S benchmarks are doing their best to stave off waves of selling as mounting recession fears and geopolitical concerns rattle risk-sentiment around the globe. Germany’s closely watched ZEW Sentiment this morning was worse than expected and at the lowest level since December 2011. Hong Kong’s international airport is again closed; the ongoing protest and violence are showing no signs of dissipating.
Nasdaq100 (NQ) Near 50% Fib Retrace of Aug Slide
Economic Update: August 12, 2019
The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%. Real government spending and real consumer spending were positive contributors to growth, while a decline in business fixed investment, slower inventory growth and weaker trade detracted.
Growth Concerns Linger After Turbulent Week
The S&P 500 futures trade 12 points, or 0.4%, below fair value following a turbulent week on Wall Street, while investors continue to assess U.S.-China trade relations and the Hong Kong government protests.The Hong Kong protests have yet to materially affect U.S. equity markets but given the limited scope of corporate and economic news today.
Many Factors Could Tighten Corn Ending Stocks
What’s on Tap Weekly Calendar: August 12 , 2019 – August 16, 2019
Weekly Calendar August 12 , 2019 – August 16, 2019: Economic Calendar, Earnings Calendar, Expected IPOs for the week.