FX Rundown: October 15, 2019
China Last Night: October 15, 2019
Asian equities were predominantly up with Japan playing catch up after yesterday’s holiday while South Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Indonesia were up. China, Malaysia and Singapore were down today while Hong Kong was basically flat despite China’s mainland media confirming trade talks had made “substantial progress”. Yesterday’s Bloomberg article on the lack of media mention was the latest negative spin on the positive steps taken by both sides.
S&P500 (ES) Daily MACD Positively Crossing
FX Rundown: October 14, 2019
Fundamentals: Risk assets found broad support to finish last week as President Trump paraded an interim trade deal. Mounting positivity surrounding Brexit and soft U.S inflation data brought additional tailwinds to help the Euro settle Friday at the highest level since September 19th. The tables quickly turned coming out of the weekend though, cold water was poured over progress on each U.S-China and Brexit. Still, the Euro is clinging to gains in a low volatility atmosphere ahead of a crucial German ZEW Sentiment read tomorrow morning. The economic data has not gotten any better, Chinese Trade Balance last night showed Exports and Imports both contracted more than expected and tomorrow we hear the IMF’s revised growth estimates. We continue to believe rallies in the Euro are sell opportunities and if ZEW misses at 4:00 am CT tomorrow, look for follow through from today’s session to the downside.
Bullish Potential for ULSD
Grain Express: October 14, 2019
December corn futures went bid on Friday as shorts rushed to cover ahead weekend uncertainty. That uncertainty came from the weather and trade talks. Weather ended up being within the realm of expectations which is why you’re seeing futures little changed this morning, this was a classic, buy the rumor sell the news situation; something we wrote about last Wednesday.
Wheat (ZW) Testing 50% Fib Retrace of Jun-Sep Fall
There is certainly an optimistic tone to markets today and that optimism is well-justified. Between positive rumblings on the US-China trade front, progress in Brexit negotiations, and the Federal Reserve extending its purchases of Treasury Bills, today’s news flow has been unrelentingly positive for equities. There was nary a downtick in the major US indices between the open and the European close.
Crude Oil Power Rankings: Middle East Takes Center Stage
Saudi Arabia’s response to September attack will have the biggest impact on crude prices for the remainder of 2019. U.S. oil production has leveled off, coinciding with a perceived drop in global demand. In March of this year, we began a series on which countries matter most for the price of crude oil.
Morning Express: October 11, 2019
U.S benchmarks are surging into U.S hours Friday on hopes of an interim trade deal. President Trump has lauded progress between high-level delegates and is set to meet Vice Premier Liu He today. In the past, meetings between the two have marked a short-term truce in this ever-going dispute.
Morning Express: October 10, 2019
Price action continues to run in circles on the ever-revolving U.S and China trade headlines. Sentiment was roiled early last night on reports of no progress between deputy level negotiators and that China was planning on heading home early. It’s a different story at the onset of U.S hours with price action clawing back losses on renewed hopes of an interim or partial deal, that Washington would suspend a scheduled increase in tariffs and Chinese delegates are planning to stay the full schedule through Friday.
China Last Night: October 10, 2019
The latest round of trade negotiations begins today in Washington. It was a Jekyll & Hyde session as news flow swung from positive (US China FX deal, truce/not deal feasibility, US Huawei exemptions) to bad (little progress on Monday/Tuesday US China lower level trade dialogue, NBA, visas) back to positive leading to a mixed overnight session as Japan, HK and China gained while Korea and India were down on the day with Taiwan closed for holiday.
EURJPY Weekly MACD Trying to Positively Cross
Silver (SI) Testing 38.2% Fib Retrace of May-Sep Rally
FX Rundown: October 8, 2019
Trade Angst Revs Up (Again)
It is not going to be a good open for the stock market. The futures for the major indices are trading noticeably lower, undercut by — what else — anxiety about trade dealings with China.
Morning Express: October 8, 2019
Major indices are slipping into U.S hours as trade tensions heat up before Thursday’s talks. This round of talks between high-level U.S and Chinese delegates in Washington has been lauded as a crucial turning point to make a deal. A revolving door of headlines yesterday gyrated the S&P around unchanged, but a sour taste was left after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said changes to intellectual property laws will ‘never’ be on the table. Washington fired back by blacklisting 28 Chinese companies in total, including eight tech companies that range from video surveillance to artificial intelligence.
S&P500 (ES) Weekly Hammer Bounces Off Jan-Sep Uptrend Support
Looking Ahead to the WASDE Report
70 Years Later, China’s Factories Show No Signs of Slowing
Arabica Coffee (KC) Breaking Above Jul-Sep Downtrend Resistance
Grain Express: October 3, 2019
December corn futures finished yesterdays session on softer ground on the back of a light wave of profit taking. We would not be terribly surprised to see this continue today, ultimately it is healthy and would likely set up as a better buying opportunity. Export sales this morning came in at 562,600 metric tons, within the range of estimates. Weather and yield reports will become increasingly important over the coming weeks.
GBPAUD Retesting 61.8% Fib Retrace of May-July Fall
FX Rundown: October 2, 2019
Morning Express: October 2, 2019
U.S benchmarks slipped sharply south yesterday, and price action is now at one-month lows. Our narrative played out perfectly; this market must see better data in order to perform strongly. We have said it’s making a transition from Fed easing dependence to growth dependence.
WTI Crude (CL) 2 Week Descending Wedge Nearing Completion
October 1, 2019