GMO:未来7年新兴市场股票表现超过美股

By:

Chief Investment Officer Sizemore Capital Management and a Portfolio Manager for Interactive Advisors

有一句俗语称:若美国打喷嚏则全世界都会感冒。美国是世界上最大的进口国,并且有最高的贸易逆差,可以说美国是全球不可或缺的经济体。

新兴市场的股票集中于周期性大宗商品板块并且对外国资本有着依赖性,尤其容易受到美国经济疲软的影响。

贸易紧张局势让投资者担心不已。美国经济增长看似接近本轮周期尾声,而美国市场出现问题则可能超越国界。

避险模式

当西方的投资者进入避险模式时,他们会抛售手里的一切东西,为了换取现金甚至抛售高质量的新兴市场股票。但是在他们的抛售中,也创造出了绝佳的买入机会。

GMO是总部位于波士顿的一家资产管理公司,Jeremy Grantham和他的同事们在GMO工作并且并不被认为是市场的乐天派。他们被认为是看到2000年和2008年这两个知名熊市的清醒的价值投资者。

Grantham公司预估美股市场在未来7年的时间里会表现不佳也就毫不奇怪,认为年均跌幅为3.7%。

新兴市场

不过有趣的是,GMO预期新兴市场的股票在未来7年将取得每年5.2%的回报率。更令人感兴趣的是,GMO预期新兴市场价值投资股票每年的回报率会达到9.8%。

新兴市场的股票大多数严重依赖于新兴市场的国内消费者,而不是出口或者贸易。

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