美股点评:标普500指数接近完成双顶形态

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美国今天公布的消费者物价指数CPI远高于市场预期,股市收盘下跌。美国债券收益率与实际收益率同步大涨。

债券市场的走势令人大吃一惊,2年期美国国债收益率上涨逾25基点升至1.62%,10年期美国国债收益率上涨11基点升至2.05%。10年期与2年期美国国债的收益率价差仅有44个基点,收益率曲线倒挂的脚步日益临近。甚至美联储基金期货也出现了大涨,12月期货合约上涨了惊人的33基点,升至1.72%。iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF(LQD)下跌逾1.3%。这在债券市场绝对是一场血洗。

iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF (LQD)

iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF收盘位于124美元的关键支撑线之下,可能正在下跌的路径上,更低直到120.80美元处才有像样的支撑线。

2年期美国国债收益率

信不信由你,2年期美国国债收益率突破1.40%的关键阻力线后可能仍继续上涨,就像这个阻力线不曾存在意义。

如果美联储基金期货的预期是正确的,12月份的联邦基金利率将超过1.7%,则2年期美国国债的收益率将不得不升向更高,甚至可能达到2%。

金融状况

今天也观察到iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF与iSharesiBoxx投资级公司债ETF的比值向上突破并升至0.89的阻力线之上。

这个指标很关键,因为这一比率让人们知道目前的金融状况正在收紧。两个ETF的比值越高,金融状况的紧缩越严重。


标普
500指数基金(SPY)

股市相比债券市场的表现略好。标普500指数下跌1.8%,收盘略高于4500点。指数抹去了昨日的涨幅并且跌幅略多。

标普500指数目前非常经济完成双顶形态,需要收盘在4450点以下以确认该形态。如果真的发生这种情况,则标普500指数会重返1月份的低点,并形成更低的低点。

Adobe公司 (ADBE)

Adobe公司的股票可能是明天值得关注的一只,因为该股非常接近跌破关键支撑线。Adobe公司的股票是1月份引领股市下跌的公司股票之一,在暂停一段时间后,看起来它准备好开始再一轮下跌。

Shopify公司 (SHOP)

Shopify公司股票是另一只需要密切关注的股票,因为该股也是曾经重挫并暂缓跌势的。如果Shopify公司股票再次开始下滑,则有很大的概率跌向700美元。

2月11日美股评论所提及的股票:Adobe公司、Shopify公司

2月11日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF、iSharesiBoxx投资级公司债ETF、标普500指数基金、2年期美国国债

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

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