印度排灯节降至 助推黄金需求

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黄金是今年表现最好的投资品之一。SPDR黄金指数基金(GLD)是世界最大的追踪黄金价格变化的交易所指数基金,该基金在2019年迄今上涨了近16%。

发生了什么

多重因素推动了今年黄金价格的上涨,并促使投资者加大对SPDR黄金指数基金和成本更低廉的SPDR黄金Mini指数基金(GLDM)的投入。

(黄金价格上涨)不仅仅是因为美联储降息。许多全球其他央行也在做同样的事情,这使得货币贬值并且让黄金更具吸引力。

这导致负利率债券充斥全球市场-据估计有高达17万亿美元的负利率债券。

由于部分债券基金还收入基础费用,故而不支付利息或者股息的黄金对部分投资者相对更具吸引力。

为什么重要

对于SPDR黄金Mini指数基金和SPDR黄金指数基金来说,另外一个重要的年度推动因素将发挥作用:印度的排灯节(万灯节)即将到来。

印度是世界上最大的黄金进口国之一,排灯节通常导致印度的黄金进口需求上升。

标普道琼斯指数公司在近期的一份报告中指出:“黄金通常在下半年随着需求回升而走高。”“据估算,排灯节期间的黄金购买量约占印度黄金全年购买量的五分之一,高于全年的任何其他时段。印度的珠宝和黄金经销商的销量通常会在节日前大涨20%-30%。”

排灯节的到来刚好是在各国央行加大购买黄金,同时市场预期美联储将在10月再次降息的背景下,尽管美国经济表现仍然强劲,股市也处于接近历史高点的水平上。

标普道琼斯指数公司指出“黄金是印度第二大进口商品,仅次于原油,这意味着该国对世界黄金市场的重要性,同时印度印度消费者的需求会影响到全球黄金市场的供需关系。”

下一步会发生什么

数据显示,投资者在SPDR黄金指数基金上部分获利了结。在第三季度,约有价值60.4亿美元的新资金流入SPDR黄金指数基金,第四季度的资金流出量为1.24亿美元。

从第三季度初开始,流入SPDR黄金Mini指数基金的资金为2.41亿美元,使得该指数基金在近期的价值超过10亿美元。

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