对美联储降息的期盼

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发生了什么?

近期美伊紧张局势引发股市的动荡,不过股市并未被完全击垮。可能源于投资者期望美联储出面并缓解任何股市的大幅下挫。

这意味着什么?

美国股市周二在小幅上涨和下跌之间翻转,这意味着投资者目前不再担忧原油价格上涨的直接影响。

美国的能源价格并没有太大的变化,毕竟美国已经是全球最大的产油国,其原油产量远超过国内需求。

尽管如此,我们仍处于一个不稳定的情况中:一个上涨的股市,但是公司盈利下滑并且经济增长预期下降,这是一个麻烦的组合。

股票的估值会看起来过于昂贵,谨慎的投资者将可能开始抛售手中的股票。目前看来,持续买入股票的投资者可能是指望全能的美联储。

为什么值得关注此事?

对市场来说:投资者需要英雄

根据美联储最新的会议纪要,如果美国的经济增长如预期,则今年的利率不会下调(同样也不会上调)。

不过,除了美联储对短期借贷市场持续不断的支持外,投资者预期美联储为了支撑美国经济的发展将至少降息一次。

(美联储降息)将降低借贷的成本并可能刺激支出,从而提振公司盈利和经济增长,并进一步提振股价(以及其他证券产品)。如果美联储降息,就会如此。

更大的前景:赤字

周二公布的最新经济数据显示,代表了美国经济80%的服务业在12月的增速超过市场预期。

同时美国的贸易赤字降至3年来的最低。近期的贸易协定可能将进一步降低未来的贸易赤字,并提振经济增长。

(这种情况)有利于美国的经济,但是对于盼望美联储降息的投资者来说却并无好处。

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