美联储压力测试:银行能否在经济衰退中幸存?

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美联储的报告结果显示美国大型银行的高资本水平使得它们能够在严重经济衰退中继续向家庭和企业发放贷款。

发生了什么事情:

周四公布的美联储压力测试结果显示,尽管全部参加测试的银行预计亏损总额达6120亿美元,但它们将所持有的资本金额均高于最低资本要求。

相比于2021年的测试结果,大型银行们的亏损增加了逾500亿美元。其中包括了超过4500亿美元的贷款损失,以及1000亿美元的交易与交易对手损失.

美联储表示:“在压力状况下,(银行们)为损失提供缓冲的总普通股资本率预期将下降2.7%至最低9.7%,这一水平仍然是最低资本要求的两倍多。”

美联储的压力测试旨在研究大型银行是否足以在衰退期间支撑经济。

美联储指出,2022年的压力测试假设情况条件较2021年的测试更加严重。其中包括严重的全球经济衰退,商业房地产和企业债市场均面临巨大的压力。

假设条件包括:

  • 失业率上升5.75%,升至最高10%。
  • GDP下滑10%
  • 商业地产的价格下跌近40%
  • 股市下跌55%

为何值得关注:

 

除了揭示美国银行体系强劲实力的积极信号外,美联储压力测试的结果还意味着大型银行目前可以进行资本分配和自行发放奖金。

摩根大通、摩根士丹利、花旗集团、高盛集团和美国银行等华尔街大行可能进行数十亿美元的股息分红,并向C级别高管发奖金。

股价走势:

根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据,SPDR标普500指数基金在周五上涨0.98%,收盘至378.06美元。

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