通货膨胀影响美国快递业

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发生了什么事情?

物流巨头联邦快递上周末公布的季度收益财报好于市场预期。

这意味着什么?

疫情期间人们网购跑步机、蹦床以及所有可以快递的东西。不过人们不能快递生活:这也是联邦快递所面临的问题:随着人们倾向于将钱花在旅行、体验和娱乐上,联邦快递送达的快递数量在减少。

联邦快递的地面快递业务是该公司增长的主要来源,这一业务在上季度的平均每日包括送达数量相比去年同期下降了5%。联邦快递的空运业务的日送达数量也下降了11%。

好的消息是送达数量的下滑影响被运费上调抵消了,普通快递和空运的价格分别上涨了11%和20%。运费上调使得联邦快递能够给出好于预期的季度盈利,同时该公司给出了令人印象深刻的全年利润指引。

为何值得关注?

更大的图景:上调价格的极限

如果快递的需求持续下降,联邦快递可能无法继续提高运费价格,这意味着该公司需要改善服务和运营以榨出更高的利润。

所以您可能需要关注下联邦快递的送达成功率:来自ShipMatrix的数据显示联邦快递目前准时送达了93%的包裹。这一数据较去年12月份的89%有上升,不过该公司的主要竞争对手UPS快递的包裹送达成功率一直维持在90%的区间高位。

聚焦:英国走向衰退。

消费者对快递公司的需求下降还有另外一个原因:通货膨胀正在减少人们在必需消费品上可支配现金的数量。

周五公布的数据显示,英国上个月的零售额环比前一个月下降了0.5%,但是消费者的支出增加了0.6%。

与此同时,另外一项新数据显示英国6月的消费者信心降至历史最低水平。部分经济学家认为,两项数据结合起来证明英国经济在第二季度有可能萎缩,并且正式进入衰退。

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