市场真的认为美联储会推迟缩表吗?

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

股市再度经历了走势怪异的一天后以上涨收盘,数个指标令人困惑。

GDP数据显示美国经济在第三季度仅增长了2%,而市场的预期是增长2.7%。

与此同时,欧洲央行维持利率不变,并且打破了市场预期欧洲央行将在2022年加息的想法。

以上的信息均同时涌现,使得弄清楚市场的想法变得更为困难。与此同时,美国国债收益率在早晨的大部分时间下滑,在收盘前终于开始反弹。

我认为股价的走势显示出市场的看法是疲弱的GDP数据将使得美联储推迟缩表。我相信推迟缩表是根本不可能的。

美联储主席鲍威尔在10月22日表示,他认为目前是进行缩表的时间了,但尚不是加息的时候。他在10月22日发表上述演讲,你可以快进到演讲视频的17分40秒处观看他的表述。

他就在上周做出如此的表示,我相信他肯定了解美国经济放缓的程度。

另外,美联储有着稳定物价和保障充分就业的双重责任,而不承担保证GDP增长的任务。当然经济发展受益于低利率环境。

目前量化宽松是否是必须的?可能不是,至少不是按照目前的节奏。所以,如果市场认为美联储将不会进行缩表,我认为下周三市场会失望。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数成功地重返昨日的高点。今天的走势看起来很像第2浪,第1浪回撤了100%。如果是这种形态,明日可能会走低,是第3浪下跌的开始。

如果不是该形态,则可能会形成一个逆头肩形态,这意味着涨向更高。不过直到形态被确认前,我将坚持目前为第2浪的看法。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

亚马逊公布的季度业绩财报很糟糕,并且给出的盈利指引令人失望。从我目前所读的财报内容看,听起来像是亚马逊的收入增长减缓累加成本上升。这是一个不佳的组合消息。

亚马逊的股价在盘后交易时段下跌了4%,我惊讶的是亚马逊的股价竟然没有下跌更多。亚马逊的股票在3300美元一线有支撑线,不过如果能维系住该支撑线我才会惊讶,我认为亚马逊股价将面临的首个考验在3200美元处。

苹果公司 (AAPL)

苹果公司公布的季度财报营收低于市场预期,其股价在盘后交易时段下跌了4%,苹果公司同时指出下季度的供应链问题将更糟。我预期苹果公司的股价会跌向130美元区间的低端有一段时间了。在苹果公司公布了这样的季度业绩后,其股价应该会开始下滑了。

美光科技 (MU)

西部数据的季度业绩财报导致其股价大跌10%后,美光科技的股价在今晚下滑了2%。除此之外,Digitimes报道称DRAM内存的价格仍在下跌。

美光科技的图表上看起来像一个熊旗,如果是这种形态,将是跌向我关注了很久的目标58美元的完美状态。

无论如何,我们拭目以待明天的走势。

10月28日美股评论所提及的股票:苹果公司、亚马逊、美光科技

10月28日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金

MichaelKramer和Mott资产管理公司的客户持有苹果公司的股票

MichaelKramer持有标普500指数基金的看跌期权

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