能源股飙涨是经济危机的前兆吗?

Benzinga

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标普500指数自2022年年初至今一直蹒跚前行,能源短缺、经济重启后的需求旺盛、通货膨胀与地缘政治动荡等因素综合起来导致油价处于多年来的高位。

埃克森美孚公司和马拉松石油公司等石油股是今年迄今为止市场上表现最好的股票之一。

2022年迄今为止,标普500指数中表现最好的10只股票有8只是石油和天然气公司股,其中就包括埃克森美孚公司和马拉松石油公司。

WTI原油的价格在今年迄今为止上涨了26.8%,过去一年时间里上涨了61.5%。

发生了什么事情:

全球经济的重启需求一直是关键的推动因素,而新冠奥米克戎变异感染病例的下降可能意味着当春季和夏季旅游旺季开始时,对原油的需求将大增。

当然,乌克兰冲突是推动原油价格自2014年来首次突破每桶90美元的另一个关键因素。俄罗斯是世界第二大产油国,美国与其他国家对俄罗斯的任何重要制裁可能会造成全球石油工业的严重供应失衡。

同时,近几年投入能源业的资金很大一部分进入了清洁能源技术领域,而清洁能源在全球的能源供应中仅占相对很小的一部分。

为何值得关注:

油价上涨增加了公司们的成本,不过其他公司们的能源需求对于石油公司和天然气公司无疑是个好消息。

投资者应在未来几周时间里密切地关注原油价格的走势,尤其是在乌克兰冲突升级的情况下。如果高涨的油价达到了某个临界点,所谓的石油冲击波可能会造成严重的经济损失。

实际上,DataTrek研究公司联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯在近期指出,石油冲击在过去50年时间里导致的美国经济衰退比其他任何因素都要多。

投资者可能还会记得,在2008年的金融危机前,原油价格曾飙涨至每桶140美元。

Benzinga的结论

目前的原油价格对于石油公司和天然气公司而言是美妙的,有利于提高公司利润率并且不会施压世界经济。

目前尚没有人清楚油价上涨到什么价位时会开始明显影响公司们的盈利并导致经济减缓,不过投资者们应该继续关注油价走势,尤其是当油价突破每桶100美元的关键整数心理水平时。

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