哪个板块在疫情后表现会更好?

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发生了什么事情?

各国政府和央行在疫情下紧急干预经济,投资者则争先恐后地涌入到不断创纪录新高的全球股市和债券市场。

这意味着什么?

疫情首现端倪时全球股市陷入恐慌,从此前的高点下跌逾20%进入技术性熊市。

不过因科技股(约占美国股市权重的25%)受疫情推动的趋势变化(如远程工作和在线购物)上涨的提振,各国股市其后报复性反弹。

截至2020年底,中国股市上涨约25%,美国股市上涨约15%,同时缺乏科技股的欧洲市场下跌了5%。


债券市场今年也表现优异:随着各国央行大量买入债券,债券的价格上涨 而收益率下降。

因为债券的买入量如此巨大,截至今年年底,实际上有创纪录的18万亿美元的政府和公司债券为负利率。

也就是说,投资者即便在肯定会损失资金的情况下也在买入债券。

为何值得关注?

对于市场而言:谁的高点?

投资者在还没有消化完今天的行情之前就为明年的可能行情进行定价了,这部分解释了各国股市近期的高点。

2021年可能会出现戏剧性的反弹:分析师预期美国公司的平均利润将增长22%,如果这种预期真能够实现,将是2010年以来的最高利润增长幅度。

更大的图景:板块轮换

今年对廉价的价值股(如汽车股、能源股和银行股等表现不佳的板块)何时会取代大型科技股等成长股的有很多争论。

大规模的疫苗接种可能决定“何时”的关键因素:疫苗已经让投资者对股市明年的增长性反弹有着更多的信心,历史角度而言,这种情况下经济敏感型的价值股最为受益。

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