为何投资者将资金从股票转向债券

您需要注意市场的新情况:投资者可能失去了对股票的热情。

《华尔街日报》援引晨星公司的数据,约有600亿美元的净资金在上个季度流出股票基金,按照百分比计算是2011年以来的最大规模资金迁移。

据《华尔街日报》报道,债券基金在同一时期流入了1180亿美元,较去年同期的净流入额倍增,货币市场的流入金额则达到了2250亿美元。

对经济衰退的恐惧

虽然现在就认为(资金)正大规模并永久性地从股票市场转移到债券市场为时尚早,但资金的转向可能是投资者担忧经济前景的信号。

让投资者感到压力的因素包括:对美国出现经济衰退的忧虑在日益增长;华盛顿的弹劾总统调查;土耳其在叙利亚的军事行动;以及经济指标令人担忧的数据。

例如,衡量美国制造业的PMI数据已经跌至10年来低点,同时汽车销售也出现疲弱的迹象。

上涨/下跌股票比值

据《华尔街日报》的一项分析显示,技术分析者在近期指出,股市反弹中的上涨股票数量与下跌股票数量的比值在缩小。

随着新财报季的大幕开启,分析师预期美国公司在第三季度的利润将下降约3%。

公司利润增长在最近几个季度里表现疲弱,远不及2018年时两位数的增长率。

结论

由于美国经济的不确定性以及与中国和欧洲的贸易紧张局势,市场的情绪也变得更消极。

我认为,如果资金继续从股票市场涌出,并涌入债券与货币市场基金,自2009年3月开始的本轮牛市很可能面临挑战。

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