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特斯拉的股票究竟是被高估了还是被低估了?

Benzinga

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Benzinga
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特斯拉公司 TSLA 的股价在 2021 年落后于标准普尔 500 指数,年初至今的总回报率为 10.1%。

虽然特斯拉的增长数据依旧令人印象深刻,但考虑到特斯拉目前市值为7490 亿美元,一些投资者开始思考特斯拉股票是否还有价值。

收益:

市盈率 (PE) 是衡量股票价值的最基本的指标之一。市盈率越低,价值越高。标准普尔 500 指数的当前市盈率约为 33.9,其长期平均水平为15.9,相较之下,标普500指数的当前市盈率是长期平均水平的两倍多。

特斯拉目前的市盈率为 406.6。该数字比标普 500 指数整体平均水平高出约 12 倍。特斯拉至今持续盈利仅两年左右,因此没有长期历史收益数据可用于与今天的水平进行比较。

增长:

展望未来四个季度,标普500 指数的远期市盈率仅为20.7, 看起来更为合理。而特斯拉的远期市盈率为109.3,是标普 500 指数整体的五倍多,这使得特斯拉股票看起来极有被高估的可能性。

消费类周期板块平均预期市盈率为21.9,与之相比,特斯拉也高出了约五倍左右。

然而,在评估一只股票时,收益并不是一切标准。

对于快速创收的公司来说,增长率也很重要。市盈增长比率 (PEG) 是将增长率纳入评估过程的好方法。标准普尔 500 指数的整体市盈增长比率目前约为 1;而特斯拉的市盈增长比率为 7.8,这是一个巨大的估值危险信号,几乎是整体市场的 8 倍。

市销率是另一个重要的估值指标,特别是对不盈利的公司和成长型股票。标准普尔 500 指数的市销率目前为 3.1,几乎是其长期平均值 (1.62) 的两倍。特斯拉的当前市销率为 17.8,是标准普尔指数的五倍多。

最后, 华尔街分析师也对特斯拉未来 12 个月的价值持怀疑态度。分析特斯拉的 35 位分析师的平均分析师目标价为 764 美元,较当前水平下跌约 1.3%。

结论:

根据对常见基本估值指标的抽样调查,特斯拉股票目前的价格似乎被极度高估了。

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