股市真的便宜吗?

By:

Chief Investment Officer Sizemore Capital Management and a Portfolio Manager for Interactive Advisors

我认为目前(的市场)无法确认是部分多头所期望的那种一生一次的买入时机。

我们可以观察下市场的估值。周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)适用于此种情况。

周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)因耶鲁大学教授罗伯特·席勒而广为人知,虽然巴菲特的导师与价值投资之父本杰明·格雷厄姆在1930年代提出了类似的方法。

周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)不是通常的将股价与当年或下一年的预期收益进行比较,而是将目前的股价与10年的平均收益进行比较。

这种比较的逻辑是十年间的任何时候均可能出现繁荣、衰退以及两者之间的状态。

抛售动能

标普500指数的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)在二月初为33,大致位于1929年大萧条之前的高点水平。美股市场的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)在历史上仅有一次大幅升高,那是1990年代互联网泡沫的顶峰时期。

我们在2月和3月看到的抛售使得大量非理性的泡沫从市场挤出,周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)降至23左右。在我撰写本文的时候周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)已经恢复到略低于26的水平。

26的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)看起来比33好得多。但是(市场)也远称不上便宜。

作为对比,目前市场的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)大致与2007年的市场顶点时的CAPE一致。在2009年时CAPE最低点为13,约为目前水平的一半。

市场前景

数据网站GuruFocus统计的数据显示,以今日的水平计算的周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)预示着在接下来8年的年收益率仅为0.9%。

目前的利率和通货膨胀率均更低,这意味着在其他条件一样的情况下,股价应该更高。(更低的利率减少了货币的时间价值)

另一个值得注意的因素是,标普500指数目前被具有类似垄断地位的高收益科技公司所主导。这同样意味着在其他条件一样的情况下,目前的股价应该高于历史均值。

不过我认为即便有着充分的波动空间,仍很难称目前的市场便宜。

这是否意味着市场需再测试其低点或再出现暴跌?

我认为绝对不是。我认为市场不需要做任何事。但是按照我的推导逻辑,这的确意味着标普500指数的年收益在未来10年的大部分时间里可能会低于平均值。

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