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德国失业率下降 欧洲股市表现强劲

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发生了什么?

德国11月的失业率出人意料得下降,该国与欧洲央行的对立也因此加剧。

这意味着什么?

欧洲央行长期以来一直在呼吁德国通过增加公共支出来提振经济,但是因为失业率下降,德国政府可能会对欧洲央行的建议充耳不闻。

即便如此,德国工业仍处于衰退中,包括汽车制造商戴姆勒在内的制造商已宣布今年裁员数千人。经济学家正在担心失业会影响消费者支出,而消费者支出帮助德国经济勉强避免了衰退。而周五发布的数据显示了零售销售额的下降,这加重了德国经济发展的担忧。

为什么我应该关注?

市场-债券市场或面临不利

虽然德国的失业率可能还处在较低水平,但是欧洲的失业率仍然高于其它发达市场,其中西班牙和希腊等国家的失业率为两位数。周五的数据还显示出通货膨胀率回升,这令欧洲央行感到些许安慰,因为这证明了其低利率政策可能奏效。这或许也可以解释为什么欧洲央行刺激经济的方法从廉价资金转移到了增加公共支出上。如果这种情况确实发生了的话,那么更多的政府借贷和更高的利率可能对欧洲债券来说并不是一个好兆头。

个人-重回股市

尽管今年欧洲股市表现出了自2009年以来的最佳状态,但是投资者全年都在从欧洲股市撤资。投资者们对股市的回暖持观望态度,但是如果他们看到刺激经济的政府支出,英国脱欧协议或中美达成贸易协议等利好消息的话,这种“害怕入市”的情绪会逐渐转变为“害怕错过”市场。随着投资者重回欧洲股市,2020年的欧洲市场可能会再度表现出色。

原文发布于2019年11月29日-On The Pull

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