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美股点评:阿里巴巴、PayPal

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

如果您今天仅仅关注着股票市场,您很可能错过了债券市场持续发生的大跌,债券市场的震荡已经蔓延至企业债券和高收益债券市场中。

iShares iBoxx高收益公司债ETF(HYG)与iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF(LQD)今天均再度下滑,两只指数基金都有可观的跌幅。

iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF今日跌至131美元下方,目前很可能正跌向130美元,这意味着公司债券的收益率正在上涨。

以上所有的信息显示出,由于市场预期美联储将在2022年采取更加鹰派的立场,金融市场的状况目前正在趋紧。

随着美联储联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要在周三下午2点公布,将可能是在鸽派的棺材钉上钉子。

美联储理事Clarida和Bostic近期表示更快缩表或采取其他类似措施可能是必要的,这可能是他们向外界发出的信息。

我预期美联储明日公布的会议纪要将暗示在下一次的联邦公开市场委员会会议上讨论更快缩表的信息。

考虑到美联储将加快缩表的选择留给11月的联邦公开市场委员会会议声明中公布,本次会议纪要中的措辞很可能是具有关键意义。

这将给予市场一定时间,即在12月15日下午2点之前使得鲍威尔屈服,不去选择更快地缩表。尤其是在今天的PMI采购经理人数据初值不及市场预期的情况下,这意味着美国经济在11月出现了放缓。

从代表更广泛市场的大盘指数角度,PMI采购经理人数据的影响看起来并不很大,不过在债券指数基金、美元指数和美国债券市场中,您能观察到巨大的震荡。所有这些变化指向金融市场情况趋紧,而这对股市是不利的。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

正如我在今天的午间点评文章中所指出的那样,标普500指数的相对强弱指数RSI、MACD转低,这是下降动能的迹象。此外,腾落指数继续下挫。并不是市场做好准备上涨的信号。

道琼斯互联网指数基金(FDN)

请看道琼斯互联网指数基金(FDN)的走势:互联网指数基金今天收盘位于233美元支撑线上,更重要的是,刚好位于2020年9月开始的上升趋势线上。

PayPal公司(PYPL)

PayPal公司继续在190美元的区间盘整。Paypal公司的股价需要维系住这一价位,否则将很糟糕。我在上周注意到该公司股票有部分看涨期权的买入。我开始担忧这只股票了。

阿里巴巴集团(BABA)

我今天注意到阿里巴巴集团的股票看起来欲填补2017年的缺口。

Roku公司(ROKU)

Roku公司的股价目前位于228美元。对于该股而言,这一点位可能是生死攸关的时刻,若下跌则会跌向193美元,乃至进一步跌向151美元。


Roku公司股票的相对强弱指数并未显示出股价接近底部的信号。该走势可能是死猫反弹,不过并非底部。

11月23日美股评论所提及的股票:PayPal公司、Roku公司、阿里巴巴集团

11月23日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、iShares iBoxx高收益公司债ETF(HYG)、iSharesiBoxx投资级公司债ETF

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with permission from Mott Capital Management. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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