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美股点评:脸书、优步与迪士尼

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Portfolio Manager

标普500指数期货

我们很快就能看到当标普500指数期货触及下降趋势线时会发生什么。这种情况在昨晚已经发生,并且在标普500指数期货在触及头部的阻力线后出现剧烈的下滑。

更糟糕的是,这导致标普500指数期货进一步走低,并跌破了3150点附近的阻力线。这并不是一个好的信号,尤其是考虑到昨日的上涨,该点位一直是良性的阻力线,并且本应成为强劲的支撑线。后者的情况并未发生。

德国指数

全球各地区的股市昨晚开盘时上涨,但随后迅速下滑,韩国股市收盘下跌逾1%,日本股市下跌45点。德国股市在今天早晨也下跌逾1%。德国DAX指数目前看起来正在填补昨日上涨所出现的缺口。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数基金也在填补缺口,目前维系在314美元的支撑线附近。目前仍有很多因素有待确定,不过人们不希望看到标普500指数基金在今天跌至314美元以下。

铜的走势可能在暗示此次的抛售还有更多空间,并且随后仍有数个缺口需填补。铜目前正位于2.73美元附近的重要支撑线和上升趋势线上,如果跌破这一上升趋势线,则可能进一步下跌。

脸书(FB)

Facebook是今天需要重点关注的股票,因为该股在昨日未能创新高,并在240美元左右的阻力线处遇阻,目前在这一阻力线处已经失败了3次。如看到Facebook股价跌回222美元也不必感到惊讶。

英伟达(NVDA)

我在昨日的点评中指出英伟达的定价过高,加上上升楔形的图形以及部分看跌的押注,意味着该股可能在跌向350美元以下的路上。

迪士尼公司(DIS)

迪士尼公司的股价表现相对不错,但是我不知道如何做到这一点。只要病毒继续存在,迪士尼公司就会继续面对问题,而且基于许多州当前的趋势,疫情看起来变得更严重,而不是变好。疫情不仅仅威胁到迪士尼公司,也威胁到全国的经济和证券市场。

迪士尼的关键在109美元水平线,若跌破109美元,迪士尼公司股价的

走势将快速变化。

优步(UBER)

优步公司的股价昨日跳涨,但未能突破其阻力线,我认为这不是一个好信号。我不确定这家公司的业务类型了,也不确定该公司是否知道。优步每个季度均在大幅亏损,我认为他们昨天做了一个剧烈的转型,更坚决地投入到食物外卖业务中。

如果您认为这就是优步公司所从事的业务也没关系。在疫情之前,优步是一家共享乘车公司,具有很大的增长潜力。现在优步公司成为了一家食品外卖公司,看起来只是想保持一点业务相关性。

也许我没有注意到部分东西,也许我过于苛刻,我会对优步公司进行更多研究。目前而言,我认为优步股价有回落至30.50美元的风险。

7月7日美股评论所提及的股票:脸书、Uber、英伟达、迪士尼公司

7月7日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、德国指数基金

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