美股点评:苹果、AMD

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场收盘基本无变化,标普500指数上涨约3点。今天的市场板块轮换看起来再次完美对冲,因为科技股板块的上涨刚好抵消了通货膨胀板块下跌对指数所施加的压力。

如果进一步分析,我们可以说苹果公司和微软公司使标普500指数维系在绿色的上涨区间。如果没有这两家公司,标普500指数今天可能会下跌约10至15点。

标普500指数和个股的波动率水平正在上升,预示着下跌正在前方等待。

卖压增强

虽然市场表面上看起来是平静的,表面下发生的事情才是令人惊异的。卖压正在增强,尤其是通货紧缩类资产。这一情况告知了我们过去几周市场情绪发生了多大的变化。

金融股和房地产股板块开盘上涨,盘中重挫并离开其高点。

波动率指数 (VIX)

虽然整体大盘走高,不过我们再次观察到波动率指数(VIX)和纳斯达克波动率指数(VXN)飙升。

这种情况极少发生,过去的历史显示这种价格走势发生在股市急剧下挫之前。

波动率指数上升意味着投资者正在寻求防护伞,也就是看跌期权。

为何交易者/投资者不在ISM制造业数据和美国劳工统计局就业报告公布之前购买看跌期权呢?ISM制造业数据报告将于周四公布,劳工统计局的就业报告将于周五公布。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

我仍坚定地认为标普500指数将走出一波C浪,基于标普500指数期货的小时图的分析,这一浪将回调至4120点。

S&P 500

涨跌比率在今天下跌,未与标普500指数的上涨以及上周开始的上涨走势保持一致。

同时,股价高于其50日移动均线的公司股票所占百分比也再次下降,意味着该指数失去了更多的动能。

苹果公司 (AAPL)

苹果公司的股价一直在上涨,并且升至我认为可能会对其产生阻碍作用的下跌趋势线之上。

不过当观察苹果公司期权时,我们可以发现苹果公司的股价随着看涨期权的增加而上涨,而目前隐含波动率同样上升。

在过去,只有当公司股票近期的上涨行情接近结束的时候,我们才会观察到这种情况的发生。

超威半导体公司(AMD)

超威半导体公司的股价飙升,升至我们一直观察的交易区间的上端。不过与发生在苹果公司股票的情况一样,我们可以看到隐含波动率水平在上涨,意味着反弹走势可能将被逆转。

6月30日美股评论所提及的股票:苹果公司、超威半导体

6月30日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、纳斯达克100指数基金、波动率指数、纳斯达克波动率指数

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有苹果公司和微软公司的股票。

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with permission from Mott Capital Management. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

In accordance with EU regulation: The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.

Any trading symbols displayed are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to portray recommendations.

Disclosure: Options Trading

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. For more information read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options, also known as the options disclosure document (ODD). To receive a copy of the ODD call 312-542-6901 or copy and paste this link into your browser:

http://www.optionsclearing.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp

Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容(包括文章和评论)仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品,也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透证券,盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金或其他人士的过往或将来表现,或其提供的信息之准确性做出任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易适合于您。

发布内容中提及的证券或其他金融产品并非适合所有投资者。发布的内容并未从您的投资目标、财务状况或需求出发,并不旨在向您推荐任何证券、金融产品或策略。过往业绩并不代表将来表现,如有需要,请咨询相关人士获取专业的建议。

盈透或其分支机构的雇员所发布的任何信息均基于公认的真实可信的信息。然而,盈透或其分支机构无法保证信息的完整性、准确性和适当性。盈透不对任何金融产品其过去或将来的表现作出任何声明或担保。交易员睿智中发布的文章并不代表盈透认为任何特定金融产品或交易策略适合您。