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美股点评:亚马逊、Zoom

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

股指今天多数上涨,标普500指数上涨约40点。虽然今天大体正面上涨,不过腾落指数A/D线下跌,未能确认标普500指数自腾落指数A/D线在7月初见顶以来的任何新高点。

不论如何,标普500指数目前在其布林带上端以上交易,这意味着该指数超买。这一形态一直以来的走势是反转并回撤至布林带的低端,目前该低端线位于4390点附近。

纳斯达克100指数的布林带和RSI两个指标也显示出该指数超买。这可能意味着纳斯达克100指数基金将回撤,可能会回落至360美元附近的布林带低端。

纳斯达克100指数的布林带和RSI两个指标也显示出该指数超买。这可能意味着纳斯达克100指数基金将回撤,可能会回落至360美元附近的布林带低端。

10年期美国国债收益率今天微跌,不过其RSI仍上涨,意味着收益率可能在短期内从目前位置再度上涨。

Zoom公司 (ZM)

Zoom公司股价暴跌,该公司给出的营收指引符合预期,不过盈利的指引不及预期,同时该公司股价为2024年盈利预期的70倍和销售额的18倍,在以上的情况下,股价下跌就会发生。

正如我多次指出过的,Zoom公司的增速不足以支撑起估值。当一个高估值的成长股令人失望时,那就糟糕了;在Zoom公司公布下一个季度的财报之前,可能不会有上涨的空间,如同亚马逊的情况一样。市场上没有容错的空间。

Zoom公司股票的双顶形态很容易在明日得到确认,支撑线位于280美元。

是的,我知道所有投行给与Zoom公司的目标价在425美元左右;关注下他们会将会如何下调这些目标价。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

亚马逊的股价今日上涨约2%,重返布林带的上端,仅仅略低于其50日移动均线。亚马逊可能会填补3600美元处的缺口。

考虑到亚马逊在几周前给出的糟糕盈利指引,我看不出有任何不这样运行的理由。我估计在触及3600美元之前会先看到3300美元。

万事达卡 (MA)

万事达卡的股价跌破其200日移动均线,看起来破位下跌的走势令人担心。

我希望万事达卡能维系住350美元附近的支撑线,不过目前看起来情况不妙。如果跌破350美元,则可能指向325美元。

美光科技 (MU)

我们可以不再关注美光科技了,因为此前大家很兴奋地认为该公司股价会上涨。

很明显,美光科技未能上涨,因为其交易日内在50日移动均线处遇阻。美光科技的动能出现了问题,我仍认为在涨向86美元之前可能先触及58美元。

8月30日美股评论所提及的股票:Zoom公司、万事达卡、亚马逊、美光科技

8月30日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、纳斯达克100指数基金、7-10年期美国国债指数基金

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有万事达卡公司的股票

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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