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美股点评:苹果、微软与宝洁

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

全球市场

欧洲央行维持利率不变

世界各国的股市均在下滑,因为对冠状病毒的担忧,大多数压力来自于亚洲市场。香港恒生指数下跌逾1.5%,上证综指下跌超过2.75%。日本与韩国的股指均下滑约1%。

德国和英国的股市分别小幅下滑了35点和24点。

10年期美国国债

标普500指数期货在早上8点左右下跌4.5点,同时10年期美国国债收益率下滑至1.75%。10年期美国国债正位于一个极为关键的支撑线上。

标准普尔500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数期货目前正交易于上升楔形的低端,这意味着股市开盘将很可能从这里走低,也许从这里开始我们讨论过的回探3250点左右的走势。

不过,3310点是可与这一趋势抗衡的支撑线。今天需关注这一支撑线,若标普500指数跌破3310点,则下一步将跌向3250点。

半导体指数基金(SMH)

在德州仪器和泰瑞达的引领下,半导体指数基金(SMH)今天可能会有不错的涨幅。不过半导体指数基金的阻力线位于149美元至150美元的区间。

故而需要密切关注半导体指数基金向下破位或向上突破。

思佳讯公司(SWKS)

思佳讯公司将于今晚公布财报,投行Cowen指出做多者对思佳讯公司的盈利指引预期为8.5亿美元,市场预期则为7.5亿美元。这很可能意味着低于8.5亿美元的盈利指引对该公司来说将成为问题。

从思佳讯公司股价大涨可以清晰的看出人们的期望值很高。在思佳讯公司将公布财报的日期比往常提前两周并在苹果公司公布财报之前时,我的期望值日益提高。

我知道将不得不等待晚上公布财报。如果思佳讯公司的财报不及预期,则112美元将是股价的支撑线。

西部数据(WDC)

摩根士丹利上调西部数据的评级,从中性上调至增持,同时将目标价从64美元提高至88美元,西部数据的股价随后上涨。

我们自1月3日以来一直追踪西部数据股价的走势,当时首次观察到部分看涨期权押注该股以及潜在的突破。我仍认为西部数据的股价可以爬升至75美元的阻力线处。

美光科技(MU)

摩根士丹利也将美光科技的评级从中性上调至增持。自1月7日以来我们就在期待美光科技的股价升至62美元左右。

英伟达(NVDA)

瑞银将英伟达的目标价从每股240美元上调至300美元。英伟达也是观察到部分看涨期权押注并看到结果的股票。我期待该股能升至268美元附近。

苹果公司(AAPL)

美国银行今天将苹果公司的目标价从330美元上调至340美元。

我近期对苹果公司的股价走势有些迷茫。苹果公司股价的大幅上涨使我难以追踪。目前苹果公司股价为21倍市盈率,位于我此前估算的20只23倍估值的区间内,苹果公司需要发布一份超预期的季度财报以保持此种动能。

基于图表的分析,我认为苹果公司股价涨至330美元附近。

微软公司(MSFT)

Piper将微软公司股票的目标价从158美元上调至190美元。

同样的,微软公司的股票也是我们期待会上涨的。我在此前的《福布斯》评论文章中曾经指出,我认为微软公司的股票会涨至179美元。

宝洁公司(PG)

宝洁公司公布了不错的季度财报,盈利超预期,营收略低于预期,该公司的股价在其后下跌。

不过,宝洁公司将2020财年的盈利指引下限从3-5%上调至4-5%。尽管如此,宝洁的股价仍下跌了约2.5%。

我在2020年观察到有部分看涨头寸押注宝洁公司的股票,所以宝洁公司的财报是否会改变此种看法将是很有趣的。

宝洁公司的股票一直在很清晰的通道中上涨,故而对该通道的任何突破,以及宝洁公司今天的收盘价对于该公司股票未来的趋势是至关重要的。

1月23日美股评论所提及的股票:思佳讯公司、西部数据、美光科技、微软公司、宝洁公司、苹果公司、英伟达

1月23日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、10年期美国国债

MichaelKramer和Mott Capital的客户持有思佳讯公司、微软公司与苹果公司的股票

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors is part of the Interactive Brokers Group, and all brokerage transactions in Interactive Advisors client accounts are made through Interactive Brokers LLC, an Interactive Advisors affiliate, which is a conflict of interest because Interactive Brokers makes commissions on its advisory affiliate’s trading.  Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

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