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美股点评:波动率指数与标普指数的跷跷板

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股指数在开盘剧烈下挫后,收盘上涨了40点。股市的反弹令人感觉疲惫不堪。这在美股指数中制造了一个巨大的盘整形态。

波动率指数上涨;股市下跌;波动率指数下跌;股市上涨。

这种情况让我们知道市场上没有信心,期权市场完全掌握了股市的走势,令标普500指数在支撑线和阻力线之前反复弹跳。

我不认为股市的下滑与美国债务上限有什么关系。首先,我无法想象债务上限不获得上调的情况。其次,美元指数一直在上涨。如果投资者们担忧美国债务上限的问题,为何美元会上涨呢?难道不应该下跌吗?

此外,美国国债收益率几乎毫无变化。所以忘掉美国债务上限的事情好了;如果股市今天是因为债务上限可能获得推迟的消息而上涨,那么明天很可能立即出现抛售。

股市近期的下滑与债务上限问题无关,尽管债务问题是很吸引眼球的头条新闻。

不论如何,股市今天的走势看起来很像10月1日的形态。这是否意味着明天会重复过去几天的走势并下滑呢?当然有可能。标普500指数在4435点有一个缺口需填补。

沃尔玛 (WMT)

沃尔玛维系住了135美元附近的支撑线,沃尔玛的股票可能尚未触底,不过短期内可能会反弹至142美元。

英特尔 (INTC)

英特尔的股票看起来非常疲弱,该公司的估计未来可能下滑。

英特尔明年的盈利增长将很难实现,这意味着即便对于英特尔的12倍远期市盈率而言,其股价仍不便宜。

可能会在未来观察到英特尔的市盈率下降到10倍左右。我毫不奇怪英特尔的股票会跌破上升趋势线并回落至47美元。

Adobe公司 (ADBE)

Adobe公司的股票是另一家当前被超卖的股票,其相对强弱指数RSI低于30.与沃尔玛的情况类似,其股价可能尚未触底,不过即将反弹并回填604美元处的缺口。

10月6日美股评论所提及的股票:沃尔玛、Adobe公司、英特尔

10月6日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、波动率指数

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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