美联储紧缩靴子落地 初始每月缩表950亿美元

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

标普500指数今天下跌约1%。如我所预料的那样,美联储联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要明示了每月缩减资产负债表950美元的立场,而这仅仅是缩表的开始。我的预期一直是1000亿美元,不过美联储的初始目标已经足够接近了这一预期。

不论怎样,美联储联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要看起来导致了股市的混乱。会议纪要清楚地表明美联储希望收紧金融环境,并且希望紧缩能够快速进行。而这对于股市而言是一个不好的信号,正如我数月以来一直警告的那样,紧缩的金融环境对股市不利。这也是纳斯达克100指数基金自去年11月盘中高点下跌13.5%的主要原因。

下面的图表展示了纳斯达克100指数基金与芝加哥联储的全美金融状况指数的关联性,其上的0被认为是中性的。

全美金融状况指数目前的数值是负0.38,故而还有很大的紧缩空间。而紧缩所带来的影响对纳斯达克100指数基金并非利好。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数今天跳空低开,并且跌破了关键的支撑线。这不是好迹象。

标普500指数同时回落至10日移动均线下方。这一移动均线对市场趋势是一个很好的先导指标。

如果标普500指数运行在10日移动均线下方,也就告诉了我们该指数接下来前进的方向。

波动率指数

波动率指数今天飙升至接近25,这个水平太高了,在美联储会议纪要发布后,这成了股市自低点反弹的推力。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

我昨天提及亚马逊股票的小时图表中存在一个头肩形态,并且亚马逊的股价今天跳空跌至颈线下方。

如果这是一个真正的头肩形态,则3270美元处的颈线目前应该成了了坚固的阻力线,并且可能导致亚马逊的股价回落至3000美元之下。

Amazon

Shopify公司 (SHOP)

Shopify公司的股票今天出现了同样的走势,阻力线目前位于690美元处,该公司的股价可能回落至600美元下方。

英伟达 (NVDA)

同样的形态出现在英伟达股票的图表上,该公司的股价也跌至颈线下方,阻力线位于260美元处,英伟达的股价可能跌至230美元以下。

阿卡迪亚公司 (ACAD)

阿卡迪亚公司的股价继续上涨,目前接近27.25美元附近的重要阻力线,看起来该公司走出了一个上升三角形态,这是一个看涨形态。

若阿卡迪亚公司的股价突破阻力线,则打开了涨向30美元的空间,那之后我们就可以考虑该公司股票填补45美元附近的缺口了。这一场景不是很美好吗?

4月6日美股评论所提及的股票:Shopify公司、亚马逊、阿卡迪亚公司、英伟达

4月6日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、纳斯达克100指数基金、波动率指数

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有阿卡迪亚公司的股票

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