美股点评:8月30日美股下跌,前途未卜

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

本文提及证券产品 – TSLA, AMD, NVDA

本文提及宏观产品 – SPY

美股又跌了,标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.1%,低至 3,965,或者说比 3,950位高出了15个点,这在我的命中范围之内。信不信由你,困难这才刚刚开始,因为该指数目前所处区域可以对未来有很大影响。在做出更大胆的投资决定之前,我会先静观其变。过去的三个星期市场持续呈疲软态势。但今天标普500一度接近3918,这是一个重要信号,我们可以因此对未来走势加以判断。

如果标普指数跌破 3,920关口,走势图上不仅会出现更多需要填补的缺口,而且会让多头对近期市场反弹是新的上升周期开始的希望落空。我们可以将从 6 月低点开始的走势视为艾略特波浪脉冲或 5 浪周期。按照这种理论,最近的回调可能是第四波下跌,如果真是这样,那么我们将迎来第五波上涨。

但是,如果这种下跌或“第 4 浪”跌破 3,920,那么第 4 浪将低于第 1 浪的顶部,这就让回涨变得不太可能。

S&P 500

我认为最可能的是我们已经完成了 ABC 上涨,现在处于第五波的下跌周期。但同样,这就是为什么3,920 的关口如此重要的原因。基于我对市场的了解,我认为未来我们很可能会看到更低的价格。

S&P 500

AMD (AMD)

AMD 今天的收盘价略高于 85.50 美元的支撑位。我认为它会继续下降,与英伟达一起被拽得更低。这可能意味着 AMD 或许在不久的将来重新测试 73 美元的区域。

AMD

特斯拉 (TSLA)

特斯拉似乎打破了我今天一直在观察的头肩顶形态的颈口。我认为这将导致股价从这里走低,并将这些缺口填补至 250 美元。

Tesla

英伟达 (NVDA)

英伟达回落至 154 美元,这是过去一直以来的支撑位。突破该价格会使股价回到最近的低点。鉴于这些可怕的结果,即便走势更低我也不会感到惊讶。

Nvidia

原文发布于2022年8月30日 –Stocks Drop On August 30 And Near A Massive Inflection Point

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