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美股点评:市场避险情绪渐浓

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

股市今天收盘下跌,标普500指数下跌13点,标普500等权指数基金RSP下跌6点。至少在标普500指数表现都层面而言,今天是寻求平衡的一天。纳斯达克100指数下跌35点,罗素指数下跌1.14%,房地产指数则下跌近2%。

标普500指数基金 (SPY)

标普500指数目前正位于布林带的中部,在4475点附近有一个缺口同时作为20日移动均线可能提供支撑。

标普500指数的MACD、相对强弱指数RSI和腾落指数目前呈现向下倾斜的趋势,可能意味着动能上渐趋看跌。这使我认为我们将会观察到指数会降低到布林带的低端。

标普500指数中价格超过其200日移动均线的公司股票百分比继续下滑,降至73.6%。

这一数字与代表更广泛的上升指数出现背离。值得注意的是,这种情况在2015年、2017年和2020年发生过三次。在2015年和2020年的市场,我们观察到市场大幅下跌;在2017年,标普500指数丝毫不受影响。在其余的时间里,这两个指标似乎愉快地同向前进。

避险情绪

道富SPDR公用事业指数基金(XLU)今天表现优异,上涨近1.8%。当我们考虑股市的风险时,我喜欢比较两端的指数基金。

相较公用事业板块的稳定,我认为风险最高的、最不可预估的板块是生物技术指数基金XBI。

当你查看公用事业指数基金XLU与生物技术指数基金XBI的比率时,呈现的形态看起来是倒头肩形态,意味着公用事业指数基金在未来的表现会超过生物技术指数基金。

该形态表明投资者正倾向于避险。这一图表意味着我们将进入风险厌恶期。

公用事业指数基金与科技股指数基金的比较图表显示出类似的情况。实际上,科技股板块相比公用事业板块的估值达到如此高度是在2020年3月。两个图表看起来都表明风险偏好的情绪已达到了顶点。

Square (SQ)

据报道,亚马逊正为第三方卖家开发POS系统。Square公司受到这一消息的冲击,今天股价下跌逾4%。Square公司的相对强弱指数RSI预示着下跌尚未结束,直至245美元处才有支撑线。

贝宝 (PYPL)

贝宝的股票同样表现不佳。幸运的是,贝宝的股票可能先填补缺口;现在,贝宝股价能够继续下跌并回落至270美元。

台积电 (TSM)

125美元的区间一直以来是台积电的烦恼点位。突破这一区间显然对台积电是一个很大的利好,不过同时,突破的几率看起来不高。

9月8日美股点评提及的股票:Square公司、贝宝、台积电

9月8日美股点评提及的宏观产品:标普500指数基金、公用事业指数基金、生物科技指数基金

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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