美股点评:金融状况趋紧下反弹恐难持续

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场在6月21日大涨,标普500指数上涨了2.45%,纳斯达克100指数基金上涨了2.33%。考虑到我们已经观察到反趋势的反弹通常跟随运营成本指标的反弹,因此股市的上涨并不令人感到意外。

真正令人惊讶的是股市反弹的速度之快。我目前对这轮反弹能否持续下去持怀疑态度。我本来仅仅预期标普500指数会反弹至3800点附近,目前的上涨已经完成了我预期的大部分目标。我认为标普500指数甚至可以再次开始填补3700点以下的缺口,也许填补缺口的行动最早明天展开。

波动率指数

虽然股指大幅反弹,波动率指数今天几乎没有跌,波动率指数仅下跌不到1点,收盘为30.20.考虑到标普500指数的大幅上涨,本预计波动率指数会出现幅度显著的下跌。波动率指数的表现增强了我对这一轮反弹的疑虑。

当然,美联储主席鲍威尔明日出席国会听证会也对股市构成了风险。

金融状况

另外,从iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF/ iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF的比率角度衡量,今天市场的金融状况趋紧,通常在两者价差扩大的情况下,是对股市不利的信号。

iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF/ iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF的比率尚未创下新高,不过值得密切关注。

META (META)

Facebook母公司META的股价继续下跌,今日再度下挫了4%。我不知道什么原因导致了下跌。显然有不好的事情发生了。也许该公司不应该从Facebook改为现在的名字。不过,从技术角度考虑,155美元的水平线是十分关键的,如果跌破该支撑线则下一个支撑线为疫情期间的低点139美元。

Roblox公司(RBLX)

Roblox公司股票的相对强弱指数RSI接近潜在的阻力线水平并且股价接近下跌趋势线,Roblox公司的股票再次接近突破的点位。这也是该公司股票6月以来第二次试图突破该趋势线。

6月21日美股评论所提及的股票:Roblox公司、Facebook母公司META

6月21日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、波动率指数、iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF、iShares iBoxx投资级公司债ETF

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

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