美股点评:股市未来几周可能一路下滑

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场今天表现沉闷,标普500指数全天在均线附近波动。我们的确在尾盘遇上了反弹,标普500指数上涨约70点。波动率在收盘前的消融是指数反弹的大多数推动力来源。随着周三的波动率指数行权日到来,我不确定市场上涨或者下跌的空间会有多大。这一切都是市场机械反应的一部分,而并不是由于买方突然变得活跃起来。

不过最关键的消息是美国国债收益率仍在继续上涨,iShares通胀债券指数ETF则继续下滑。iShares通胀债券指数ETF进入创下周期低点,交易价格约为109.15美元,目前已经回落至疫情期间低点与2018年的低点。

这传递出一个可怕的信息,即股市在未来几周时间里可能会一路下滑。

SPDR生物科技指数基金(XBI)

SPDR生物科技指数基金今天表现疲弱,虽然在收盘前有所反弹,全天的跌幅仍超过1%。生物科技行业板块对利率非常敏感,随着美国国债的实际收益率大幅反弹而跌至新低,人们预期在并不久远的将来,SPDR生物科技指数基金会继续下滑并且可能创出新低。

方舟创新指数基金(ARKK)

方舟创新指数基金也度过了糟糕的一天,该基金下跌约30基点。这只基金与生物科技指数基金面临同样的境遇。当美国国债实际利率上涨,方舟创新指数基金所持有的长期成长股的估值就越低,这样会导致方舟创新指数基金的净值下跌。

ARKK

Zoom (ZM)

我们在昨日的点评中提到了Zoom公司,该公司再下跌了约50基点,已经接近跌破位于76.45美元的技术支撑线。

9月19日美股评论所提及的股票:Zoom公司、SPDR生物科技ETF、方舟创新ETF

9月19日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、波动率指数、iShares通胀债券指数ETF

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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