美股点评:亚马逊、家得宝

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场在第一季度最后一天收盘下跌,跌幅逾1.5%。大部分抛售盘在收盘前10分钟涌现,收盘前出现了价值100亿美元的巨额出售失衡。这种现象可能是季度再平衡的最后一次尝试。

最终,我们平安度过了多个期权到期日以及持续了两周的再平衡,市场的关注可能转向美联储和经济状况。

明天公布的月度就业数据报告将拉开了解经济状况的序幕。不过我认为除非公布的数据大幅超预期或者不及预期,否则无关紧要。

我关注的最重要数据是薪酬数据。如果薪酬数据过热则意味着美联储加息幅度远远落后于收益率曲线;如果薪酬数据不及预期则意味着消费者跟不上通货膨胀上涨的速度。

再次重申,薪酬数据的增速最好能在按月环比增长0.4%和按年同比增长5.5%的市场预期附近。

随后ISM数据将于上午十点公布,这将是3月份通货膨胀的首个数据;市场对该项指数的预期为80。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数收盘于4530点附近,取决于今天的仓位情况,标普500指数明天可能处于负伽玛区间,这意味着更大的波动性。

标普500指数的下一个关键支撑线位于4510点附近。不过您可以观察到该指数已经跌破了大趋势线。

家得宝 (HD)

家得宝的股价在过去几天里下跌,目前刚好位于关键支撑线处。这是一只值得关注的股票。家得宝的股票对房地产和消费者支出均很敏感。若家得宝股票跌破299美元,则可能回落至285美元。

Adobe公司 (ADBE)

我同时密切关注Adobe公司的股票,该股填补了财报公布后的缺口后一路下滑。

Adobe公司股票可能会形成一个逆头肩形态,这是一个看涨的形态。不过若构建形态失败则意味着抛售仍在持续。

Adobe公司股票值得密切关注。目前来看其股价正在下滑。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

亚马逊连续2日上涨至阻力线上方,今天又跌落回支撑线以下。3300美元区间已经被证明是顽强的阻力区间;在亚马逊股票向上突破的努力失败后,其相对强弱指数RSI也跌破了趋势线。

我认为在可预见的未来,亚马逊的股价将继续徘徊,需要该公司公布超预期的季度财报才会推动改变出现,距离公布财报还有一个月的时间。

3月31日美股评论所提及的股票:Adobe公司、亚马逊、家得宝

3月31日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金

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