美股点评:特斯拉、方舟创新ETF

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

今天的市场走势有些奇怪,由于收益率与美元指数上涨,股市开盘走低。好于市场预期的ISM采购经理人数据加剧了股市的下滑。

不过在欧洲股市收盘后,美元指数开始回落,标普500指数弹离低点并且收盘时仅下跌20点,虽然一度跌幅超过1.6%。

从技术的角度分析,当标普500指数低开并填补下方的缺口时,并没有多少变化。周五公布的9月就业数据将决定股市的下一个边指向何方,在研究了ISM采购经理人数据后,并且在白宫国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯表示就业职位数据显示出就业在冷却至,我认为很有可能周五的就业数据会好于预期。

ISM服务业就业指数显示出在过去几个月时间里该指数有所改善,这让我推测周五的就业数据可能会较市场预期的26万人更高。

如果您将ISM服务业就业指数回推一个月,您可以观察到就业指数的变化是就业报告数据走势的很好的领先指标,并且ISM服务业就业指数在过去三个月的时间里稳定地上涨。值得思考的问题是,如果就业数据符合这一趋势,美国国债收益率和美元指数在今天的上涨就仅仅是一个开始。

从技术角度而言,标普500指数没有任何变化。标普500指数维系住了位于3806点的阻力线,我认为午盘的大幅上涨是在最小成交量的情况下产生的。

2年期美国国债

2年期美国国债收益率在4.15%至4.25%的区间盘整,可能处于牛旗形态中,意味着2年期美国国债收益率下一步涨幅可能巨大,可能推升至4.6%一线。

方舟创新ETF (ARKK)

与此同时,方舟创新ETF位于下降趋势中并且其相对强弱指数呈下降趋势,这两个迹象意味着方舟创新ETF处于一个确定的下降趋势中。

如果方舟创新ETF跌出8月峰值后形成的熊旗形态,则方舟创新ETF的跌幅尚不足以证明其位于底部。

特斯拉 (TSLA)

特斯拉的走势也可能拖累方舟创新ETF下滑,因为有报道称马斯克将再启动收购推特公司的交易。特斯拉股票的支撑线在224美元的较低处。

SPDR生物科技指数(XBI)

终于,SPDR生物科技指数的图表上看起来已经形成熊旗形态,如果美国国债收益率开始上涨,这个走势可能是解释的通的。

生物科技板块一直是对收益率上涨较为敏感的行业板块之一。

10月5日美股评论所提及的股票:方舟创新ETF、SPDR生物科技指数、特斯拉

10月5日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、美国国债收益率

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