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美股点评:美联储的缩表仅是时间选择问题

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

做多者在今日占据上风并将指数维系在4400点以上从而避免了难堪局面。今天股市取得的成果不多,指数基本上重返昨日的高点。

就目前而言,趋势线仍指向低处,下一个需要观察到重要趋势线水平在4500点附近。

我认为本周末和下周存在很多风险因素。美联储将在年底前开始进行缩表。美联储缩表是确定无疑的,剩下的只是时间选择的问题,究竟是9月份还是11月份。

另外,美联储本次会议将提供给我们著名的点阵图,部分委员对于何时开始上调利率的预期日期可能提前。美联储没有借口不进行缩表,3.7%的GDP增长十分强劲,低于9%的U6失业率数据也很稳健。

美联储缩表的公告应该会导致2年期美国国债收益率上涨,以及通胀债券指数ETF(TIP)的收益率上涨。

不过我担心也会导致收益率曲线的远端出现下滑,这样会有很大的风险。

随着通胀债券指数ETF(TIP)和2年期美国国债收益率价差的上涨将使得收益率趋势趋缓,市场对通货膨胀的预期将下降。

我认为这种情况会发生的原因在于全球范围内的低利率,这抑制了收益率曲线上远端的利率,以及市场对全球经济增长正在放缓的担忧。

不过债券市场在收益率曲线的近端对美联储毫无招架之力,推动短期的利率涨向更高。

这些利差的变化情况是避险的警示指标,如果这些指标奏效,随着时间的流逝,市场将面临一个巨大的问题。

目前,阻力线在4500点附近,如果指数能突破今天的上升楔形形态,则会在明日继续反弹。

埃克森美孚 (XOM)

原油价格上涨后,埃克森美孚享受了美好的一天,不过尚未能突破50日移动均线。另外,埃克森美孚的相对强弱指数RSI仍受下降趋势的控制。

如果我们能够去除这两个障碍因素,则埃克森美孚的股价可能推高至59美元附近。不过大部分的情况仍取决于油价的走势。

高通公司 (QCOM)

高通公司的股价今日跌破140美元处的支撑线。高通公司股票的相对强弱指数RSI仍显示出走低的信号,支撑线在130美元附近。

Zoom公司 (ZM)

明天对于Zoom公司而言可能是非常重要的一天。如果Zoom公司的股价能出现反弹,也许其能找到填补340美元处缺口的方法。

Zoom公司今天在276美元处的支撑线附近创下新低,而相对强弱指数RSI并未出现新低。RSI接近创新低,不过那可能是看涨背离的开始。

明天将是关键性的一天。

9月15日美股评论所提及的股票:Zoom公司、埃克森美孚、高通公司

9月15日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with permission from Mott Capital Management. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

这篇文章已被翻译成中文。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致,以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息,不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容,不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买,出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前,您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况,并在必要时寻求专业建议。

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