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美股点评:波动率指数、苹果与亚马逊

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场今天上涨了1.05%,收复了昨日的部分跌幅。标普500指数一度升至4369点,不过在收盘前45分钟下跌了约50点。这与波动率指数再次在21附近寻找到支撑并上涨的走势一致。

很明显的是,只要标普500指数的日内波动仍在1%至1.5%幅度期间,波动率指数很难出现大幅下跌。

标普500指数今天的反弹似乎是受到波动抛售的影响,与昨日的交易走势几乎相同但走势相反。

波动率指数 (VIX)

值得注意的明显不同之处在于,标普500指数的高点继续下降,标普500指数的低点也在不断走低。

与此同时,波动率指数在21至24的区间内相当稳定。

这里存在的风险因素是如果波动率指数飙涨至24上方,将触发股市避险事件出现。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

标普500指数看起来填补了昨日更低处的缺口并触及4365点处的阻力线。目前看来,标普500指数明天在4305点处有一个缺口需要填补。

标普500指数今天的走势看起来与9月23日的走势非常类似(图中标识2处),有着同样的高点缺口、正在扩大的楔形形态。这意味着标普500指数将大幅回落至4300点。

纳斯达克指数基金 (QQQ)

我今早本确信纳斯达克指数期货将出现熊旗形态,至少目前看来是错误的判断。

看起来纳斯达克指数期货仍存在熊旗形态的可能,不过低点吸引了逢低买入的买方入场。

我们将观察纳斯达克指数期货明日是否会回落至旗形的低端。

如果真的出现如此走势,则我们将会看到纳斯达克指数回落至14600点下方。

Square公司 (SQ)

Square公司今天巨幅反弹,大涨逾4%。不过这一走势看起来仅是填补了昨日的缺口,并且重返之前下滑趋势线处。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

亚马逊的股价今天也出现反弹,不过幅度很小,仅收复了昨日的部分跌幅,收盘远离此前创下的高点们。

亚马逊的图形中看起来有一个明显的下降趋势线,3200美元处的支撑线是重要的点位。

苹果公司 (AAPL)

苹果公司的图表与Square公司和亚马逊公司的图表没有什么不同。均有一个明显走低的趋势线存在,并且仅有一个缺口被填补了。

苹果公司股票指向130美元的趋势线看起来仍在稳定发挥作用。

10月5日美股评论所提及的股票:苹果公司、Square公司、亚马逊

10月5日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、波动率指数、纳斯达克指数基金

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有苹果公司的股票

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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