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美股点评:亚马逊、美光科技

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

标普500指数今天上涨了约1%,收盘价较8月16日创下的新高仅低0.20点左右。纳斯达克100指数上涨了1.5%。

美股市场的上涨是发生在隔夜市场时段的亚洲市场走高之后,亚洲市场近期下跌,日本和韩国等市场的跌幅逾5%。许多亚洲市场在上周末触及超卖状态,导致大幅反弹的产生,韩国股市在隔夜时段反弹逾1%。对于美股市场的大多数板块而言,在开盘时段呈现出买盘的偏好。

此外,今天公布的美国IHS Markit采购经理人指数在各项上全面不及预期,不过这毫无疑问有利于那些多头,他们想要相信美联储短期内不会进行缩表。

IHS Markit采购经理人指数虽然不及市场预期,不过将其与历史数据的趋势线进行比较,还是相当稳定的,这意味着经济运行的情况良好。

所以目前的数据可能并非很糟糕;仅仅是告诉我们经济在继续减缓并回归其长期趋势,也就是GDP的增长为2%-2.5%的区间。

我认为没有什么数据可以给与美联储足够的理由不去缩减资产购买规模。

Delta变异病毒的确会带来风险,不过美联储可能会自11月开始进行100亿美元的缩表吗?

在缩表过程中的某个时刻,如果经济状况恶化,美联储可能会停止缩表。所以我认为Delta变异并不会对美联储的可能行动构成威胁。

标普500指数基金(SPY)

考虑到标普500指数在收盘前的回调,我所判断的斐波那契线和艾略特波浪仍在起效。不过还能运行多久就需要观察。

我们可以认为目前的区域是本轮反弹结束和调整浪开始的不错区域。

标普500指数基金重返其上周跌破的趋势线,并在该水平线停止。这可能仅仅是再测试这一趋势线。

如果真是这种情况,我们明天很早就知道结果。如果标普500指数基金填补缺口并突破这一趋势线,则可能是要给好迹象,我们需要耐心等待更久才会看到调整浪的出现。

纳斯达克100指数基金 (QQQ)

纳斯达克100指数发生了同样的走势。因此,两个指数在这一区间出现修正浪的几率仍很大。

我不认为今天的走势会改变任何情况。

亚马逊 (AMZN)

不仅仅在亚洲市场上出现了超卖,美股市场也有数家公司的股票出现超卖。

亚马逊的股票就是其中之一,亚马逊的股价反弹,涨幅近2%。亚马逊的涨势也在200日移动均线处遇阻。我们明天将可以看出做多者在目前区间的信心有多强大。

Roku公司 (ROKU)

Roku公司的股票在周五进入超卖,今天股价即反弹。Roku公司的股票也在200日移动均线下方停止了涨势。

美光科技 (MU)

美光科技的股价在今日上涨,我判断美光科技股价下跌可能早了几天。美光科技股票在75美元处有一个需填补的缺口,也许填补缺口会先发生。

8月23日美股评论所提及的股票:亚马逊,美光科技、Roku公司

8月23日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、纳斯达克100指数基金

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