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美股点评:思科、Splunk公司

By:

Portfolio Manager with Interactive Advisors, CEO of Mott Capital Management

美股市场今天基本持平,标普500指数上涨15点,收盘4486点,再创历史新高。即便股市的估值渐渐走高,市场仍震荡上涨,美联储开始紧缩周期的在远处徘徊。

目前而言,我们可以观察到标普500指数再反弹向上升趋势的上端,我们自7月中旬就开始关注这一趋势。

也许标普500指数会沿着趋势线上端交易并升至5000点,也许趋于无穷。我不知道会发生什么情况。

标普500指数已经不受引力的控制,甚至不清楚市场在关注什么。市场的确在上涨,可能因为美联储将面对面的杰克逊霍尔央行年会转为线上虚拟会议。这意味着美联储对Delta变异严肃对待。

我很怀疑是美联储主席鲍威尔在协调央行年会的获得,并且举办形式的变化看起来也不大可能是向市场发出他对缩表意图的信号。

标普500指数目前的交易价格为2023年盈利预期的19倍;是的,是2023年的盈利预期。

无论如何我的看法并没有改变;我对标普500指数基金的计算维持不变。因此,我仍然认为目前的区域是向下调整浪的潜在转折点。

iShares 7-10年期美国国债ETF(IEF)

美国国债收益率今天上涨,收盘位于1.3%左右。我们将再次观察这一水平线可能的突破的出现。

潜在的突破会将美国国债收益率推涨至1.4%附近或高至1.55%。

赛富时(CRM)

赛富时的股价已经突破,该公司明天将公布季度业绩财报。很明显市场预期该公司的业绩强劲。

赛富时公司在营收上总是会超市场预期;由于财报中包括未实现的损益,该公司往往会获得其投资组合的提振。

如果赛富时明天的财报超预期而股价下跌,请查阅该公司的表现超预期有多少是因为“其他收入”贡献而来的。赛富时股票在260美元附近有强大的阻力线。

思科公司 (CSCO)

思科公司的股价仍在攀升,突破至58美元的阻力线上方;思科公司的股价自2001年以来从未触及如此的价格。我将不再关注该股。

Splunk公司 (SPLK)

Splunk公司在明日也会公布财报。Splunk公司的股票在6月突破了下跌楔形,并在今天触及151美元的阻力线。

我长期以来喜欢这家公司,问题在于该公司何时公布财报。他们似乎从不愿取悦投资者,而且将营收转为类似订阅服务的模式。不论怎样,Splunk公司的股票交易重演上个季度公布财报后的走势,我也丝毫不会感到奇怪。

Splunk

8月24日美股评论所提及的股票:思科公司、Splunk公司、赛富时公司

8月24日评论所提及的宏观交易产品:标普500指数基金、7-10年期美国国债指数基金

Michael Kramer与Mott资产管理公司的客户持有Splunk公司的股票

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

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Disclosure: Chinese Translation

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